2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[B Ozanne]

People on the Cayman Islands should certainly consider evacuating and doing what the goverment says, but the situation may not be as dire as it looks. Although Little Cayman is only 7 feet high at its max (maybe more, I don't know), storm surge isn't nearly as big a deal as it is on the mainland. Hurricanes in the Caymans are not that rare so building codes are in place. And it's not Mitch...Mitch raised the most havoc as it stalled over Central America and dumped feet of rain. Causing major landslides in third world countries. There is no orographic lifting going on in the Caymans and the islands are mainly sand, so there are well drained.

Now, the situation in Grenada is looking dire.

If you live in Florida you don't want to see the 11pm track!

Edit: I'm looking at the 11pm data right now. I looked at the intensity forecast and it didn't look too bad. After double checking, I noticed the whole scale has been shifted up, so CAT 1 is off the scale on the bottom.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

83.1, 85.3, 84.7, 85.6, 85.6... these are the latest water temperature reports from buoys from west of Tampa down to north of the Dry Tortugas. Certainly not boiling like the west gulf, but warmth is still there. Cooler water likely exists near coastline and river outlets from runoff.

Info from the National Climo Buoy Center http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

As for Grenada, the Caribbean Disaster Emerg Response Agency http://www.cdera.org/index.php
says the EOC on the island was destroyed, and while personnel are trying to relocate, communications is still difficult.

mp

 

[Austin Ivey]

People on the Cayman Islands should certainly consider evacuating and doing what the goverment says, but the situation may not be as dire as it looks.

Whenever there is a potential for the center of a major hurricane to pass over or very close to a flat, lowlying island that is only 10 miles long and one or two miles wide, the situation is indeed urgent and dire.

Like you, I am unsure of the building codes in the Caymans. I have visited many times, however, and though the majority of buildings aren't "mud huts" like you might find in the Dominican Republic and Hati, the construction isn't the quality that you might find in places like Galveston Texas (my uncle just built a home there). If fact, the "airport" on little cayman is nothing more than a shack with four walls, and the "hospital" or clinic is a 70s era wood structure.

Also, I am not sure of the maximum height of the island. I have never personally taken a GPS and surveyed the island. I'm going by what my friend told me and my own estimates since I have visited the location on many occasions.

Also, the connection I was attempting to make to Mitch was based on satellite appearance and intensity. I realize that the rainfall, not the windspeeds, caused the thousands of deaths in Honduras et al.

EDIT:

here are some pop. numbers for the islands:
"The total population of Grand Cayman is about 37,083; Cayman Brac, 1,822 and Little Cayman, 115"

 

[David Wolfson]

2 a.m. latest: 160 mph, 925Mb ==> Cat 5 :shock:

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by David Wolfson
2 a.m. latest: 160 mph, 925Mb ==> Cat 5 :shock:

Some interesting things to note in the ~6z vortex message... 21C eye temperature, as well as: "MAX FL WIND 154 KT N QUAD 0525Z. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EYEWALL. HAIL OUTBOUND THROUGH SOUTHEAST EYEWALL." A 0.9 reduction from FL to surface yields surface winds of 138 kts (~160mph)... Interesting to see that the max winds increased from 125kts on the 11pm advisory to ~140kts on the 2am intermediate avisory. The central pressure has fallen about 26mb in 8.5 hours... Good thing most hurricanes can only maintain this intensity for 6-18 hours...

 

[Saul Trabal]

^

Wind gusts have been recorded at 195 mph.

:shock: :shock: :shock:

 

[Thomas Loades]

The pressure's now down to 921 mb, and still 160-mph sustained winds. It's now looking very well-organized on satellite, with a very sharply defined eye that's just kind of materialized very quickly. Wherever this is going, things will be bad.

 

[Anthony Petito]

Looks as though an update was issued at 635 AM and fudged some earlier numbers from the 5 AM advisory. Central Pressure is now down to 920 MB indicating the 160 MPH sustained winds may be a bit higher now.

However, the wording in the last sentence is pretty scary itself:

DROPSONDE WIND REPORTS ALSO INDICATED WINDS OF NEAR 210 MPH AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 350 FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

:shock:

These kinds of winds can knock brick structures down, tear pieces from cars... in short, devastating.

Let's hope this thing can't sustain it's current srength before hitting anything close to land.

 

[B Ozanne]

The biggest saving grace might be time. As we saw with Frances strong storms are very unstable and can be easily toppled, if only for a short while.

 

[Bridget Beddow]

Are you sure about the height? While I'd hardly call it an authoritative site, I did find this tourism page that suggests Little Cayman has a peak elevation of 40 feet.

Some of the peak elevations may be uninhabitable, though, making a higher elevation for shelter difficult at best.

I've been to Bahamas and PR and while the Bahamas seemed to be much more level, PR has a rainforest, but there were not many houses on the way up there (that I remember-not saying much :roll: )and I would think it would be difficult to sustain a home during much flooding of a hurricane near the rainforest.

So they may only have a shelter in the only location deemed reasonable enough to sustain a hurricane. You would think they would come up with something a little higher up, though. I would have to leave the area.

 

[B Ozanne]

Now that this is a CAT 5 this thread is going to get very busy. Let's keep on target with only posts of a forecast nature. Other discussions of Ivan and hurricane safety should be in this thread:

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3516

 

[Anthony Petito]

Looks as though they are really expecting for Ivan to hit Florida as mandatory evacuation are now being ordered for the Keys. Just looking at the models this morning shows the large majority showing it will hit Florida.. again. Only thing we can hope for is that it cant sustain or regain it's strength by the time it makes its way north.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

No way will this hurricane hit Florida with an intensity it has now... The official track brings it over a hilly/mountainy part of Cuba, which wil disrupt the winds. Additionally, Ivan will spend more time over land/Cuba and less time over water before hitting FL than Charley did. Now, if Ivan shifts to the west a little and passes more over western Cuba, it will spend less time over land and thus not lose as much strength... For the people of FL, I"m hoping it takes it's currently forecast track, which is probably the best case scenario for a FL hit... We shall see though..

 

[Glen Romine]

Originally posted by Bridget Beddow


Some of the peak elevations may be uninhabitable, though, making a higher elevation for shelter difficult at best.

If you'll note, the site gives a peak elevation of 40 ft - so we aren't exactly talking alpine terrain here - but I agree with you that the shelter on the island is of unknown elevation - apparently it is at the public works building. I don't have mapping software for the Caymans, so I can't check the elevation there. Maybe someone else can. There are no substantial inlets on the island shore and the water gets deep fast, so the storm surge won't likely be remarkable.

Glen

 

[Bridget Beddow]

If you'll note, the site gives a peak elevation of 40 ft - so we aren't exactly talking alpine terrain here

hehe -

Either way, I think I couldn't imagine being stuck on an island like that.