2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[Chris Sokol]

Tropical Storm Ivan is looking better and better organized. NHC is forecasting Ivan to reach hurricane status by Sunday, and possibly major hurricane status by Tuesday. The current projections indicate that this could be #3 for Florida.

 

[B Ozanne]

It's southern route will keep it in warm waters, away from the upwelling of Frances.

Just wait, as America focuses on what is shaping up to be a big rain maker Ivan just might sneak in the back door.

 

[rdale]

Interesting that the 06Z GFDL valid Sep 8 / 06Z has it down to 922mb! But it takes a very southern track...

"as America focuses on what is shaping up to be a big rain maker Ivan just might sneak in the back door"

There's no way that Ivan will hit land while Frances is making noise, it's too far away. Regardless - I doubt anyone would be ignoring Ivan at any point in his life.

- Rob

 

[Kevin Walter]

The first few forecast discussions for Ivan were amazing - with talk of some of the models bringing it to a CAT 4 in 3 days. Obviously *that* isn't going to quite happen, but it will be interesting to watch.

As a side note, one factor with major hurricanes is that statistics are against them staying major hurricanes for longer than about 3 days. I don't remember the exact figures, but it seems like prior to the last few years there had only been one, maybe two storms ever that stayed a Cat 3 or above for longer than 4 or 5 days. That's one factor we considered when we were thinking about targeting Isabelle last year. It had been a major hurricane for so long, odds were heavily against it making it all the way to the US as one. We didn't go, and we were darn glad b/c it did weaken substantially. Same thing is happening now with Frances. We'll have to wait and see for Ivan.

I can already see it now though, the media's ratings baby - 'Ivan The Terrible'.

 

[B Ozanne]

I wasn't literally saying that Ivan would sneak in the back door as Frances was hitting. I was thinking the people and the media were just going to be worn out by the time Ivan hits.

 

[David Schuttler]

Will the disturbance north of Ivan have an effect ?

 

[Chris Sokol]

Well, as of this morning Ivan is now a hurricane. Current steering projections look to take the storm up the eastern side of Florida. With all of the upwelling that has taken place with Frances, this should create quite a hostile environment for Ivan.

 

[B Ozanne]

On the current route Ivan is going to take a beating over Hispaniola. Mountains there are over 10,000 feet.

 

[Kevin Walter]

Yeah, but it sure does look pretty this morning. A visible loop of the Atlantic basin off the NHC satellite page shows both Frances and Ivan. How beautiful. Ivan is cruising, though, I think 18 kts at this time. This thing is so far south. With the coriolis force so small at that latitude, it's doing a wonderful job of intensification. Maybe the southern track will hold, it'll have a fresh expanse of undiluted energy, Florida will be spared, and the Gulf will get some love this season.

Nonetheless, the tropics develop soooo slowly. Hard to handle as an impatient, instant-gratification severe storm chaser. I need to step away from the computer for a few days, go into a coma, and see what it looks like then.

 

[Chris Hayes]

1 PM update on Ivan has it's sustained winds now at 115mph :shock:

 

[Kevin Walter]

Holy crap! How incredible. The 11am NHC forecast for Ivan was for it to become a Cat 3 at 120 hours. It became a Cat 3 in 3 hours. Lets see, that's something like ... 40,000% error. Cutting some slack though.

How amazing is that. This thing is moving at an incredible speed as well. In 5 days it could be over Cuba?! Meaning another possible Florida landfall in less than a week?!

I'm speechless.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I dont want it to go near florida, the water is too cool there from upwelling now. Send it to the gulf of mexico where the water is 85-90

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Very, very interesting forecasts for Ivan ... For Example, check out http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/p...ts/storm_09.gif ... I'll include them at the bottom of the post since anything after an oversized pic is included in the picture frame... Whatever the case, check out the 7-day HPC forecast too at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif , which shows the hurricane just off the southeast Florida coast by next weekend. Actually, it shows it as a low, but that's just because of uncertainty. The forecast movement is quite fast, so 5-day forecasts errors shouldn't be tooooo bad.

EDIT: From the HPC 3-7 day forecast discussion:
"...TROPICS...
HURCN IVAN TO MOVE THRU THE WINDWARDS AND HEAD NWWD INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES. DAYS 6 AND 7 SAT/SUN IVAN MAY BE IN THE BAHAMAS CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. VERY GOOD MODEL CLUSTERING AIMING AT THIS AREA. SEE NHC ADVISORIES/WARNINGS."

[Broken External Image]:http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

 

[Joel Wright]

I dont want it to go near florida, the water is too cool there from upwelling now. Send it to the gulf of mexico where the water is 85-90

Yeah that's nice. Lets just hope it gets stronger and causes more destruction.. :angry7: :roll:

 

[Robert Dewey]

I dont want it to go near florida, the water is too cool there from upwelling now. Send it to the gulf of mexico where the water is 85-90

Yeah that's nice. Lets just hope it gets stronger and causes more destruction.. :angry7: :roll:

LOL...

Kind of like how storm chasers wish for a tornado outbreak, huh? I don't think what Chris is hoping for will change what actually happens anyway (at least it never does for me, on potential tornado days :lol...