2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[Carrie Halliday]

Local mets here keep preaching that Ivan will make a beeline for the eastern Gulf due to the dueling Highs. They are of the thought that the one near TX will win out and send Ivan streaking NE. But, they keep saying Ivan will go NW and he keeps plowing on due W. He sure is clipping right along, but anything is fast compared to Frances!

 

[B Ozanne]

The official 5 am forecast track is not looking good for Florida.

 

[Mike Johnson]

Looks like "Ivan The Terrible" will enter the Gulf according to the
latest NHC discussions and models. My guess is a quick turn right
like Charley did.

Mike

 

[Blake Allen]

Hi Everyone, guess this is as good a time as any to make my first post...

It looks like the models (and the NHC) have almost all decided that Jamaica is going to take a beating Friday. Unfortunately my sister and her husband left Monday to go on vacation there, rather than cancel their plans based on a forecast that had hurricane Ivan going over eastern cuba, that was at least 5 days out, and that was very subject to change. Presumably, a hurricane watch will be issued for Jamaica later today. I have to wonder how difficult it would be to get a flight off the island on 1 day's notice, especially with a hurricane watch in effect, and also how the resort hotels stand up to hurricanes. I would expect that the resorts are quite well constructed, but well constructed might not mean much against a strong category 4... and who knows what kind of hurricane shelters there are for tourists.

After Jamaica, the path looks uncertain... Hopefully, for those that took the full brunt of Charley, the UKMET doesn't verify -- it currently predicts a Florida landfall in almost the exact same place. Also, if Ivan makes it further west and then heads north over a similar path to Frances, the same areas that got flooded yesterday may be in for another blow next week.

Finally, the map at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...0409_model.html says that the SHIPS has Ivan strengthening to near Cat 5 status (152mph :shock: ) in 72hrs, though the NHC is staying slightly lower than that right now.

Blake Allen

 

[mrobinson]

If they went to Sandals they are in good shape.. The resort has a contract with Air Jamaica which will get everyone out in the event of an evacuation plus with the Hurricane guarentee they will get to go back for a free week anytime in the next year.

 

[David Wolfson]

Gilbert was a Cat 3 in 1988, and Charlie (!) was something like a Cat 2 in 1951 when they ripped Jamaica up pretty bad. Hopefully the somewhat cooler water up to 75W will take something out of Ivan, but it doesn't look pretty for Jamaica right now.

 

[B Ozanne]

Gilbert was a Cat 3 in 1988, and Charlie (!) was something like a Cat 2 in 1951 when they ripped Jamaica up pretty bad. Hopefully the somewhat cooler water up to 75W will take something out of Ivan, but it doesn't look pretty for Jamaica right now.

The NHC doesn't have any mention of cooler water until Ivan reaches the Gulf. They actually mention how deep warm water and little shear are going to be present over the next few days before Jamaica comes into target.

 

[David Wolfson]

They don't mention it, but it seems to be there: https://128.160.23.54/products/K10/caribbeank10.gif

 

[B Ozanne]

With the exception of the Bahamas it seems like there is adequately warm water everywhere. One thing those graphics don't show is how deep that warm water is.

Any opinions on whether or not we are going to see the second CAT 5 in two years?

 

[Robert Dewey]

With the exception of the Bahamas it seems like there is adequately warm water everywhere. One thing those graphics don't show is how deep that warm water is.

Any opinions on whether or not we are going to see the second CAT 5 in two years?

I believe it will be a CAT 5... As for the SSTs, it's actually warmer near Jamaica than where the 'cane is currently located. Water temps even increase another 2-3C between Jamaica and Cuba, and as long as not significant shear is present, this storm could really take off in the next few days.

My broker is located in Jamaica, and it looks like its time to wire the money to a U.S. account, before it blows away :shock:

 

[David Wolfson]

2108Z vortex report: 943Mb, 130kt. It's almost there....

 

[Zach Bailey]

2108Z vortex report: 943Mb, 130kt. It's almost there....

Usually flight level winds have to be mixed down to surface winds which are usually a little less. The standard ratio is generally FL*0.9 = SL, but of course who knows with each individual hurricane. Generally, though, it could be said with almost 100% certainty that the SL winds are strictly less than the flight-level winds, so it still has a ways to go before it hits cat5 status.


As far as the track and Jamaica goes, I have to say that the current forecast track (and the past 1 or 2) have been so similar to charley it's scary. Go to the NHC's archive of charley advisories and check it out yourself:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/CHARL..._graphics.shtml

Look especially at frames 5 and 6 which have been very similar to the last and current track forecasts.

This may or may not be significant in the long run, though, as the upper-level set up over the CONUS/gulf is much different than it was with Charlie. So of course, it's anybody's guess yet again.

 

[David Wolfson]

2311Z vortex report: 938Mb, 131kt FL wind

 

[Austin Ivey]

I just got off the phone with close friends that own a resort in Little Cayman. Little Cayman is situated 90 miles NE of grand cayman and, as of the 5pm forecast track, the eye is excepted to pass near or directly over the island early Saturday. There is a hurricane shelter located at the highest point on the island....all of 7 feet above sea level. She was shocked to hear the latest wind speeds and forecasts for Ivan and says that the government has urged people to leave the islands but no one sees Ivan as a serious threat as of yet. She says people have let their guard down after Charley was so extensively talked about but only brought hurricane force gusts to the island.

Though Ivan is still a little less than 3 days away from the islands, I urged her to take the next flight out and head to Houston or Dallas. If a strong cat 4 or cat 5 storm passes directly over an island thats highest point is 7 feet above sea level...nothing will be left. This is truly an urgent and dire situation for some of the Carribbean islands in Ivan's path.

Ivan looks incredible on the last satellite image. I would be suprised if it doesn't attain category 5 status in the next several hours....or even as of the 11pm advisory. Satellite appearance is outstanding and its core convection looks as symmetric as Mitch did in 1998. We all know how devastating Mitch was.

 

[Glen Romine]

....all of 7 feet above sea level.

Are you sure about the height? While I'd hardly call it an authoritative site, I did find this tourism page that suggests Little Cayman has a peak elevation of 40 feet.

http://www.caymanislands.co.uk/tour_guide/...ut_location.asp

Either way, I know I'd not want to be on such a shallow island with such a powerful storm lurking. The model trend has been toward the right, which if observations follow would improve the situation for the Caymans.

Glen