2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[evan anderson]

Glad somebody else saw the left movement (or wobble) as well. It also shows on my hardcopy plot.

 

[Marc Grant]

It says MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH...... so it's very close but not quite. How much difference does 1 mph make? I too see the left turn but is it a wobble? I think it's more of a turn since it was headed dead center to Jamaica earlier on and it appears to have made to small westerly adjustments.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 76.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB.

This is what I was looking at. Is at the bottom of the post.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

Obviously, someone screwed up. It appears to me they didn't want to declare Cat 5 again though the winds were at 155. Why this would be the case, I can't imagine.

It appears to me that the eye will stay off the southern shore of the island, or just perhaps clip it for a short time. However, while the hurricane has intensified, the very warm waters between there and Cuba will only intensify it to a point. The medium to outer bands need to clear Jamaica and the effects of the higher terrain to get maximum strengthening... if that is to happen.
mp

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

That is one impressive "wobble". It looks like it wants to avoid Jamaica at the last second. That is just really impressive to me right now. It's only 2-3 frames into the wobble/TURN WEST so who knows what it will really look like in a few more. Right now it looks like it's possible it could stay offshore and go west of Jamaica..not far offshore.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Couldn't part of the reason for the cat4 designation be this in the discussion?:

ONE CONUNDRUM IS THAT THE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT
FIND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF HIGHER THAN 123 KT...WHICH WOULD NOT
SUPPORT CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.

Besides, if you click on "The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale", you can read this:

Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph

Ergo, 155 is cat4.

 

[Marc Grant]

is that another left turn? Looks to be heading a bit west/sw.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I think the Satellite is messed up....but maybe not as it's a few frames and it's gradual..hmmm.

Yeah it doesn't look right. The wobbles yeah, but that one large drop to the wsw seems strange.

 

[Mike Johnson]

Looking at the latest IR image, it appears that Ivan is making a
substantial turn to the left, as previously noted, except the entire
system is moving west as opposed to just the core/eye.

It's almost as though the eye decided not to pass right over Jamaica but go around it to the west.

What a forecasting nightmare for the next three days!

Mike

 

[Marc Grant]

Could Cancun be on the horizon or is there absolutely no way?

 

[David Schuttler]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/fl...t-ir2-loop.html

This shows the trend more for me earlier than last frame

 

[Tim Vasquez]

No GOES pics for the past 70 minutes... wonder what is going on.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Tim Vasquez
No GOES pics for the past 70 minutes... wonder what is going on.

I noticed that the last GOES images have come in at ~0345 UTC. I think that the GOES satellite eclipses... I remember reading last year that GOES imagery stops coming in for several hours after ~0345z ... I wish I had something more specifics... REFER TO http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/goes-eclipse.html , which shows the eclipse graphically.

(Edited for stupid grammatical errors)

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Aha, thanks. Looks like we'll be online by 0630Z.

Tim

 

[Austin Ivey]

i found this image which shows a time stamp of 1240am eastern....only ~30 minutes ago.

i dunno tho, it doesn't look that different than the 345UTC goes image on the tpc site.

Looping this page gives the impression that ivan is moving due west and has yet to make landfall in jamaica.

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satell...lite_large.html