2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[Tyler Yarnell]

Power 106 has live updates again, they are urging caution and the act of thinking 'logically' at this moment is most critical and to think of the children. Also said at this moment Jamaica is 'bleeding'. 'The hurricane cannot diminish our spirit and not stop our resolve'.

Edit: Now they are reading hymns and saying prayers.

 

[Zach Bailey]

I have been saying over and over again how much the path of this thing is resembling the path of charley - and this is yet another instance of that. If you compare NHC's Charley forecast image archive, they had it going right over jamaica as a TS. However when Charley got closer it turned completely left and went around jamaica and then split those other two islands to the NW (cayman islands?). I know Charley and Ivan are two completely different storms and the other forecasting factors are completely different, however the similarity is striking. I for one hope Ivan spares the jamaican people as it sounds like they have enough internal strife to deal with, without ivan coming through and decimating their island.

My personal thoughts on the forecast have the eastern part of the eyewall grazing western jamaica as Ivan turns back northward, then crossing cuba into the gulf and coming ashore a little north of tampa bay (25-50 miles north).

 

[Morgan Palmer]

As quoted: up to 155mph is cat 4.

You're absolutely right.

The eye is taking a due west movement, which is positive for continued strengthening. However, as mentioned before, for a significant strengthening, all quads must be free of Jamaica.

BTW, Power radio from Jamaica is reporting a healthy birth of a baby boy. Emergency services were able to respond.

Perhaps he might be named Ivan. Eeehhh... probably not a good idea.

mp

 

[Thomas Loades]

Winds are now 150 mph, pressure 923 mb, and Jamaica is in the worst of it — the eyewall, and the NE quadrant — right now.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Thanks for the clarification Bob.
It is amazing how Ivan is skirting Jamaica, but still has to be devastating it. Waiting for the turn to the N like they keep saying will happen.

 

[B Ozanne]

At the moment it looks like the most severe winds have stayed offshore. Jamaica just might have been spared.

 

[Geoff Boyle]

Do you guys think Ivan will head to the gulf after all?

It seems that way to me.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Ivan is looking a little more chaseable now with a panhandle landfall becoming more likely. The questions now are, can Ivan maintain chaseworthy strength that far north, and will landfall be overnight (bad for chasing) or during the day (better for chasing)?

Still a long way out and a lot of room for error here, especially after seeing that last minute dodge of Jamaica.

 

[Bob Schafer]

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml

 

[Mike Johnson]

With a landfall now predicted in the 'big bend" of Florida.. anyone
ever chased there? Seems to be very few major towns, limited
roads and a lot of swamps prone to flooding?

Mike

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I seem to remember Gilbert in 1988 just kept steaming west. I can't remember what the early forecast tracks were, but the forecasters were saying that the system was so big it had developed some sort of 'momentum' (that may be an oversimplification to some degree). So it's interesting seeing how this morning's forecast paths have shifted west 150-200 miles.

But UKMET/LBAR had better performance early on taking the track west, and they are now going with a quicker recurvature than the rest. Will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Tim

 

[David Wolfson]

Whoa, Nellie! The 12Z GFS just coming in tracks Ivan through the Yucatan Strait. The westward trend of the models continues. Looks like Ivan is headed for a leisurly stroll through the GoM.

The trend has been to account for additional troughing over the west coast and subtle indications of the steering energy that had been progged to sweep the gulf to hold back over Baja. Ivan itself may be part of the "cause", as its outflow vents to the north.

My gut feeling is that Biloxi or even New Orleans is now a definite possibility.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Originally posted by Mike Johnson
With a landfall now predicted in the 'big bend\" of Florida.. anyone
ever chased there? Seems to be very few major towns, limited
roads and a lot of swamps prone to flooding?

Mike

Floss and I were in TLH last year, and we made a trip down to the beach on St George Island (southernmost point in PH).

There are a LOT of trees, and you won't see much of anything unless you are right near the shore.

But, US98/319 skirts right along the shore a lot of the time, and traffic was extremely light when we were there in 8-03. You wouldn't need to be concerned about escaping, as long as you're willing to face the possibility of bridges going out if you wait until conditions are treacherous. Storm surge will be a major concern on that road. It is very low-lying, and it will certainly be inundated over much of its length.

Hope that helps.

Bob

P.S. I just found this site for Jamaican news:

http://www.radiojamaica.com/news/

 

[Tony Laubach]

Aircraft now estimate Ivan as a Cat 5 with surface winds estimated at 160mph. Just heard from TWC seconds ago.. will wait to see official word from NHC.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Tony Laubach
Aircraft now estimate Ivan as a Cat 5 with surface winds estimated at 160mph. Just heard from TWC seconds ago.. will wait to see official word from NHC.

Quite strong now -

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO
AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 914 MB AND THE ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 165 MPH...270 KM/HR. THESE NEW VALUES OR FURTHER
UPDATES WILL BE INCORPORATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.