2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[Bridget Beddow]

I just went home and watched the Weather Channel in regards to Ivan.

This really threw me off.

They showed a picture of the satellite image of Ivan, and then placed the little red "hurricane marker" on the north-western edge of Ivan and showed the projected path from there to move north into the Alabama/Florida line.

The NHC discussion does discuss what you mentioned Zach, but the collapse of the eyewall is probably the most important factor right now. Since Ivan is moving toward a region in the Gulf where the warm water is relatively shallow, that should hamper Ivan's ability to regain structure until it moves out over the warm core eddy - but if Ivan spends enough time over that feature, it might be able to still make landfall as a major hurricane.

Is this part of what is occurring as far as the collapse of the eyewall?

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Here's a great link to ocean bouys near Ivan:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php...dist=350&time=3

 

[Cstok]

Cam in New Orleans showing the traffic on the causeway.

http://www.theneworleanschannel.com/liveca...cams/index.html

Anyone else have some good cams along the gulf, so we can check the view / surf?

 

[Zach Bailey]

I'm not sure if this is relevant to a forecast thread, but my girlfriend goes to school in New Orleans at Loyola and the school has closed until monday. She left for home (Atlanta) today and it doesn't look like she'll be headed back there until Sunday. It's for the best, I suppose...I would rather her not be down there and the hurricane miss than her down there and the hurricane hit, since New Orleans is pretty much the #1 spot not to be in a hurricane.

 

[Austin Ivey]

Originally posted by Ryan McGinnis
Here's a great link to ocean bouys near Ivan:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php...dist=350&time=3

Here is the link to a graphical output of air pressure, wind speed and wind gusts for the bouy closest to Ivan:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.ph...ion=42003&uom=E

 

[Greg Campbell]

Latest sat image shows development a huge 'hole' in the Northern edge of the eye. Yet another eyewall cycle, perhaps more dramatic than most.

Despite it's recent jog to the North, I'm not 100% convinced it has run out of westerly travel, and am still mighty nervous for New Orleans. Still, my earlier 'prediction' (a bark-at-the-moon wild assed guess) in Tim's poll is looking promising:

<edited for precision!>
OK, Tim. It's gonna pass right over Pascagoula MS!

-Greg

 

[Glenn Rivers]

NDBC 42003

During the next 6 hours or so, Bouy 42003 should provide some excellent data even although it is well outside the E eyewall. This Bouy has wind sensors at 10 m instead of 5 m, so less problems with possible sheltering from huge waves.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FL...LOAT/VIS/20.jpg

Looks like Ivan has generated his new eye wall. Interesting to see what the 10pm CST report says.

 

[Glenn Rivers]

NDBC web page down

I can't get into the NDBC home page. Is the site down or is it just my server. Oh god please don't let the NDBC web page pack it in now of all times!

NDBC URL: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

 

[Austin Ivey]

Re: NDBC web page down

Originally posted by Glenn Rivers
I can't get into the NDBC home page. Is the site down or is it just my server. Oh god please don't let the NDBC web page pack it in now of all times!

NDBC URL:http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

Familiar with Murphy's law Glenn?

I am able to access the site now.

 

[Glenn Rivers]

Bingo. Thanks, Austin....all seems well again. The NDBC people say thay are based in Stennis Space Center, MS so I guess they will try to keep the site going until Wednesday night, then run like hell.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

I’m sure someone will have a better estimation of this, but I guessing the storm surge will begin to push on shore several hours before land fall of the eye. 3 – 4 hours? Assuming landfall of the eye about 3:00 – 4:00 am Thursday, that would have the beginning of the storm surge coincide with a high tide. High tide is set for ~ 11:00 pm CDT in LA and ~ 1:40 am CDT in AL.
http://tbone.biol.sc.edu/tide/sites_usgulf.html

This would mean the balance of the surge would push in against the ebb tide. Good news, as it would reduce the overall effect (surge + tide), but it would also create sharper waves. It should be noted that tides are relatively minimal in these areas (~1 ft), so I don’t believe it will make a huge difference, except for the sharper waves on the ebb. Current storm surge is projected to be 10 – 16 ft. This could be very devastating to the outer islands.

 

[mikegeukes]

Time is 1230 AM CDT or 130 AM EDT
Spiral band off the coast of western Florida.
Check out Tampa and Key West radars.

SPC has a mesoscale discussion about the activity.
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/0409150448.acus11.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2212.html

Mike

 

[mikegeukes]

More Tide Links:
NWS
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/cgi-bin/pre...IDNEW&version=0
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/tide.shtml
http://www.srh.weather.gov/tlh/marine/#tides

United States
http://storms.nos.noaa.gov/maps.html
http://www.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/tides04/tab...ab2ec4.html#108
http://tbone.biol.sc.edu/tide/sites_usgulf.html

Mike

 

[mikegeukes]

HURRICANE IVAN STORM SURGE QUICK LOOK
Hurricane Ivan Storm Surge Quick Look will be updated daily at 1200 and 1800 EDT during hurricane event.
http://www.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/ivan.html

Mike

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Great info Mike. It would appear that the surge has already increased sea levels by about ~.75 – 1.0 ft.

It also looks like the eye was a little east of the last forecast point, but will need to really need to start turning north to make the next one.

 

[B Ozanne]

Originally posted by mikegeukes
HURRICANE IVAN STORM SURGE QUICK LOOK
Hurricane Ivan Storm Surge Quick Look will be updated daily at 1200 and 1800 EDT during hurricane event.

Bayou Labranche is the one to watch. Does anybody know how high the levees are in New Orleans?

 

[David Draun]

This could be very bad. New Orleans sits nearly seven feet below sea level. Forecaster's are expecting nearly complete submersion of the city and have alerted emergency services to have 10,000 bodybags ready to collect drowning victims. Approximately 1 in 5 residents are not evacuating the city. If this storm strengthens back up to category 5, which is possible, the results could be catastrophic if they are not already.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by David Draun
This could be very bad. New Orleans sits nearly seven feet below sea level. Forecaster's are expecting nearly complete submersion of the city and have alerted emergency services to have 10,000 bodybags ready to collect drowning victims. Approximately 1 in 5 residents are not evacuating the city. If this storm strengthens back up to category 5, which is possible, the results could be catastrophic if they are not already.

The 13:00Z IR scan shows some convection exploding on the W/SW side of Ivan, with the eye becoming better defined... I am not an expert on hurricanes, but I am going to assume that this may just be an eyewall replacement cycle, or else it is strengthening :shock:

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Originally posted by David Draun
This could be very bad. New Orleans sits nearly seven feet below sea level. Forecaster's are expecting nearly complete submersion of the city and have alerted emergency services to have 10,000 bodybags ready to collect drowning victims. Approximately 1 in 5 residents are not evacuating the city. If this storm strengthens back up to category 5, which is possible, the results could be catastrophic if they are not already.

:shock:

I heard this morning on the TV news that they really haven't any place to shelter folks there either. Makes me a little sad for those whom are invalid or no transportation. The exidus to Houston is in mass, I-10 is a solid stream of cars coming in from the E. Motels booked up and we have shelters open on the east side for those escaping Ivan.

 

[B Ozanne]

This could be very bad. New Orleans sits nearly seven feet below sea level. Forecaster's are expecting nearly complete submersion of the city and have alerted emergency services to have 10,000 bodybags ready to collect drowning victims. Approximately 1 in 5 residents are not evacuating the city. If this storm strengthens back up to category 5, which is possible, the results could be catastrophic if they are not already.

I saw that story on Drudge, they already took the article down. I have a feeling that New Orleans will once again dodge the bullet. The current track poses a threat to New Orleans, but it is not the worst case scenario. Scientists have been warning for years that New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Interesting tidbit in this mornings advisory:

OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE
EXPERIENCED AT THE SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A 30-STORY BUILDING.

I never really thought about this before.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Looking at the latest satellite loop, it appears that Ivan has made the turn to the north. This would bring him right into Mobile Bay.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

1915 Hurricane

HISTORY OF STORM

The storm first reported forming in the carribbean sea off the Leeward Islands about midway between Porto Rica and the mainland of South America. Saturday the 25th it was S.W. of Jamaica moving toward the Yucatan Channel. On the 26th storm warnings was issued for Florida. On the evening od Setember 27th it was moving North over the West end of Cuba. Tuesday Morning warnings went up for all points from Pensacola to Morgan City La. At 3 p.m. huricane warnings said it would strike East of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The storm made land ~20 miles west of New Orleans.

http://members.aol.com/donald529/page12/

Amazing similarities.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Ivan's intensity decrease is interesting... CIMSS analysis from UW shows that there really isn't much shear over the system... SST and upper-layer heat content is plenty warm, as the storm should be moving over the warm eddy in the northcentral Gulf... The storm's outflow looks very healthy, as it has expanded considerably on the western side. The ONLY negative that I can see, and it seems to really be taking a toll on it, despite the other positives, is dry air getting entrained from the west. This huge chunk of dry air has progressively been getting wrapped into the circulation, with the leading edge now being in the southeast quadrant of the storm. This may have helped cause the northwest convection to almost fall apart late last night and early this morning, and thus the rise in pressure from 915-something to 939mb on the latest recon fix. Odd that max winds have stayed the same despite about 15-20mb pressure rise... Whatever the case, I'm think that dry air entrainment would continue given the pool of dry air to the west... There was recently a convective burst on the west side of the eye, so who knows.... The nice long "feeder band" that existed yesterday south of the storm (extending from the eastern side to the Yucatan) is now gone / evaporated, and there's signs that a "river" of dry air may work its way to the eye, which would definately weaken...