11/05/05 FCST: MO/IL

[Mike Johnston]

Good point, Kiel re: where is more instability going to come from? The one encouraging sign I see ATTM is signs of building instability (ML CAPE showing now 1,000 j/kg) and steepening low level lapse rates over SW MO - area under clear slot and also under strongest cap. If the main upper trough negatively tilts as progged, could get some good upper divergence to provide requisite lift for initiation out ahead of the surface system. I still believe best probabilities are over Central and E MO, and most likely after dark. This is challenging, trying to apply conventional springtime meso analysis against the realities of a November atmosphere, but also pretty interesting - just to see what actually happens.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Hmmm...I'd be careful with that map considering the 18Z SGF sounding and that surface conditions are pretty similar all over S MO/N AR: (image from College of Dupage)

 

[Brett Adair]

Still a good elevated mixed layer from 835mb on up it seems. Looks like the LP is more elongated now with TUL/BVO/OKM showing SSW winds. Lower pressure this hour at TUL than at SZL. BVO indicates the lowest pressure.....double barrel?

EDIT: BTW....just to let you know this insolation isn't keeping down diurnal heating...MEM broke a record last hour with a high of 82 degrees.

 

[Phil O'Neal]

Tornado watch now issued, number 841...should be an interesting evening. Has felt very muggy here all day; don't have my A/C on in the house and my inside thermo shows 77 degrees! Absolutely no wind here; has been that way all afternoon.

 

[Phil O'Neal]

Looks like things are beginning to fire up just west of Columbia, MO. Happened quite quickly in a span of about 20 minutes.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Please remember that this FCST thread is for discussion of weather that has yet to happen. Please remember to place any discussion regarding the current situation in the respective NOW thread.