Jeff Snyder
EF5
I, unfortunately, too see that the 12z forecasts appear to be too fast / too far east with the upper-trough in the western US at this time. For example, 00z 500mb and 250mb analyses this evening seem to show that the upper-level trough is 50-100 miles west of the forecast from some of this mornings model runs. If this is the case, it likely explains why the models were underforecasting mid-level temps for those stations on the Pacific coast, since they were forecasting the trough axis to be farther away from those stations than it is attm. This is quite disconcerting, obviously, since, if anything, I'd like to see the trough be farther east than forecast. As is not uncommon this time of year, uncertainty remains quite high, and the forecast for Sunday already looks quite a bit different than it did a few model runs ago. Indeed, with the trough hanging back and taking in a progressively positively-tilted orientation, we'll likely see the stronger winds aloft stay well behind the cold front, leaving marginal deep-layer shear and relatively warm mid-level temps in the warm sector. I'm trying to focus much of my attn on the GFS, since, on a purely anecdotal basis, I've been sorely disappointed with the performance of the NAM since it switched from the ETA to the WRF (and, as we know, ETA graphics hasn't been available for a couple of years now -- it's the NAM or WRF 
). I don't know if it's so much a degradation in the NAM (from the move from ETA to WRF) or if it's an improvement in the GFS, but it seems like GFS wins out more often than not compared to the NAM these days... At any rate...
I'm still holding out hope... It looked like an excellent setup yesterday / Thursday, and I'm hoping that model solutions can revert back to those forecasts. Of course, there is a general bias for the operational models (at least the NCEP models) to move troughs out of the western US (particularly when they are cut-off lows) too quickly, and it appears as though that's what we may be seeing with this current system. These days, it seems like you DON'T want to see favorable setups at 60-72+ hrs since you can bank on those solution NOT verifying. At any rate, it looks like a mid-level cold front will exist on the south side of the trough , as seen in the very tight temperature gradient at 500mb. If this is the case, then I can only hope that the cold air aloft is able to poke over the low-level warm sector to give us some better tropospheric lapse rates.
). I don't know if it's so much a degradation in the NAM (from the move from ETA to WRF) or if it's an improvement in the GFS, but it seems like GFS wins out more often than not compared to the NAM these days... At any rate...I'm still holding out hope... It looked like an excellent setup yesterday / Thursday, and I'm hoping that model solutions can revert back to those forecasts. Of course, there is a general bias for the operational models (at least the NCEP models) to move troughs out of the western US (particularly when they are cut-off lows) too quickly, and it appears as though that's what we may be seeing with this current system. These days, it seems like you DON'T want to see favorable setups at 60-72+ hrs since you can bank on those solution NOT verifying. At any rate, it looks like a mid-level cold front will exist on the south side of the trough , as seen in the very tight temperature gradient at 500mb. If this is the case, then I can only hope that the cold air aloft is able to poke over the low-level warm sector to give us some better tropospheric lapse rates.
. Maybe able to eak out a supercell or two on the front across C/EC/SC Kansas, but nothing too exciting even if the more favorable GFS setup pans out. I guess things will definitely have to wait for the next "second season" chase before old man winter comes a calling. 
