10/25/2010 NOW: MO/IA/IL

[Skip Talbot]

Cells have initiated across north eastern Missouri. Instability is lacking in this area, but with the warm air advection, height falls, and extreme shear profiles, these cells may pose a tornado risk. Shear is absolutely ridiculous by these cells. 50 knots of 1km shear, and 750 1km srh. Very moist airmass with stations reporting mid 70s temps over low 60's dews just ahead of these cells. I would expect some of these develop into low topped supercells with a chance for tornadoes.

 

[rdale]

TAMDAR sounding out of MKE (probably the last flight for the night, and not in the best spot, but indicative...)

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

KS/OK/MO

New storms going up fast on CF NNE of Tulsa back build into Tulsa SW to the east of OKC now.

 

[Mike Smith]

Strong cell has developed 10 SE Coffeyville. This cell bears watching as it is right on the front and in an area with surface-based CAPE of 500 and MUCAPE of 1,000. Given the forcing, that amount of instability is sufficient.

 

[Skip Talbot]

A cell has just now very rapidly developed over Boone county and is exhibiting a meso marker on KLSX. The cell to the north of it in Monroe county has an interesting appendage on its southern flank that's been persistent for the past several scans. The cell is rather far from the radar and rather small so its difficult to tell what it might be if anything, but perhaps its trying to hook.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I agree with others who posted just before that the area of C/S MO through far SE KS, NE OK, and into W AR are very prime for some dangerous convective weather over the next few hours (about to clear SE KS). Several discrete storms are in progress across WC MO and far EC KS. These storms have incredible low level shear to work with, and the amount of 0-3 km CAPE has risen dramatically since earlier this evening, especially in the far SW MO/far SE KS/far NE OK region. This is coincident with an area of > 500 J/kg SBCAPE and > 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and decent RH in the LCL-LFC layer. This could become an overnight outbreak very soon and continue on well into the morning hours tomorrow.

 

[rdale]

TORH looking pretty impressive across MO.

 

[jshields]

first tornado warning(i believe) of the overnight just issued for just across the river in western illinois. warning is with a cell that is out ahead of main line. looks to have a decent couplet with it too. in an area of 900 m/s2 0-1 srh and as of the latest update the only area in the region with at least 500 j/kg sbcape

 

[Winston Wells]

The tornado-warned cell in west-central Illinois has now moved into the ILX CWA. This is unfortunate, given that the KILX radar has been down since Sunday:

WSR-88D OUTAGE NOTIFICATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
810 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010
THE WSR-88D AT LINCOLN (KILX) REMAINS OFFLINE DUE TO A LIGHTNING
STRIKE SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE EN ROUTE...BUT THE RADAR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DOWN INTO TUESDAY.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

We have received not reports of any damage with that tornado warning from Pike, Co IL into Schuyler Co. It did have some nice gate to gate shear at a number of points in its life cycle though.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

TOR warnings north of the St. Louis metro right now. The line should slam into the city proper shortly. Forward speed of 70 mph on a raging squall line at almost four in the morning with possible embedded tornadoes associated with one of the strongest systems ever to head toward the Great Lakes region...incredible to watch from afar.