David Schuttler
EF5
At least it's keeping the chatter down about the 28th (so far)
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At least it's keeping the chatter down about the 28th (so far)
Kurt Silvey
EF4
Well, camera, scanner, & camcorder are all charging. I have a couple of work activities to take care of in the morning, and then will probably head towards So Central IA by mid day. This will also give me time to check the forecast tomorrow. The SPC eludes to favorable conditions in this area. I hope this thing doesn’t slowdown and turn into a night MCS. The 2100z HPC Surface chart shows the Low in COo with the WF bulging north east and the dry line just like we wanted. Now come on and move!
Mike Hollingshead
Yeah that is a real monster out there, and it's been there for many runs in various forms. It had a small system come across neg tilted followed by the big mamajama. Don't recall if the earlier system is still there or not, but man that is a big big trof. It became inverted too I thought. Anyway, earlier fish to fry.
Gabe Garfield
EF5
Just took a look at the 00z OUN sounding, and it shows a fairly deep layer of moisture (and fairly well-mixed too). The moisture layer is about 100 mb thick (or about 1 km). Could be better, but considering the time of year, it ain't too shabby. On the negative side, lapse rates aren't terrific (yet) and a fairly stout cap is in place around 850 mb.
The forecasted cirrus canopy (and when I say "canopy", I mean the type of shield that yields 0 W/m2 solar radiation) hasn't appeared on satellite yet, so we may realize full (or near full) insolation tomorrow. If that is the case, it could be quite interesting.
Gabe
The forecasted cirrus canopy (and when I say "canopy", I mean the type of shield that yields 0 W/m2 solar radiation) hasn't appeared on satellite yet, so we may realize full (or near full) insolation tomorrow. If that is the case, it could be quite interesting.
Gabe
Scott Olson
EF5
Im liking the Central Western Border of Iowa and Nebraska 1500 J/KG & moderate tornadic parameters. At least until 21z, at this point things get tricky. Im actually considering the Wilmar Minnesota area... after 21z all models indicate growing parameters in Minnesota, ETA puts a bullseye on South Central Minnesota to Mankato, MN. The GFS and Meso Eta put a bullseye starting at 21z around Wilmar, MN with GFS STP approaching 5 by 0Z and a mean average of about 1700 J/KG... Since GFS has been more consistent I believe this could be another area of activity. I still think the better supercellar tornado threat will be in Western Iowa from the 18z-21z timeframe.
Eastern Kansas might be promising too, previously I remember several runs of high EHI's and STP's as of 18z.. I have seen a model orignally forecast a parameter correctly and then change due to any number of factors. Hopefully the models settle their differances by the morning.
Eastern Kansas might be promising too, previously I remember several runs of high EHI's and STP's as of 18z.. I have seen a model orignally forecast a parameter correctly and then change due to any number of factors. Hopefully the models settle their differances by the morning.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
One VERY important detail about the 0z ETA tonight -- the FGZ (Flagstaff) observation did NOT make it into the ETA. This is quite bad since it was probably the most representative sounding of the trough axis...
I'm liking the trends that tonights 0z ETA is continuing upon. I'm baffled by the marked decrease in CAPE between 12z -- which has a bullseye of 3200 in the OK/KS/MO border area -- and the 18z -- where the same area only has 500-1000. During this time, however, sfc T increases and Tds either increase or remain steady near 70. The mid-levels warm slightly, though all levels cool by afternoon (700mb, etc)... I suppose it may be the convective complex across southern OK mixing the atmosphere as it advects towards the area of max CAPE on the 12z graphic... Whatever the case, I really don't know why the CAPE wouldn't either remain steady or increase through the day as the low-levels warm. I'd really like the 850mb flow to back more across OK... My prelim target is probably near Wellington, KS. I'm restricting myself to KS/OK, so I haven't even looked at the IA/MN situation...
EDIT: GFS doesn't have FGZ either... not good...
I'm liking the trends that tonights 0z ETA is continuing upon. I'm baffled by the marked decrease in CAPE between 12z -- which has a bullseye of 3200 in the OK/KS/MO border area -- and the 18z -- where the same area only has 500-1000. During this time, however, sfc T increases and Tds either increase or remain steady near 70. The mid-levels warm slightly, though all levels cool by afternoon (700mb, etc)... I suppose it may be the convective complex across southern OK mixing the atmosphere as it advects towards the area of max CAPE on the 12z graphic... Whatever the case, I really don't know why the CAPE wouldn't either remain steady or increase through the day as the low-levels warm. I'd really like the 850mb flow to back more across OK... My prelim target is probably near Wellington, KS. I'm restricting myself to KS/OK, so I haven't even looked at the IA/MN situation...
EDIT: GFS doesn't have FGZ either... not good...
Robert Dewey
EF5
That's odd that it would miss both models... I checked the data and it appeard un-contaminated, the graphic isn't on the RAP/UCAR site, so maybe it was late?
EDIT: Looking at the WV loop around the time the RAOB was launched, the deepest part of the 500mb low was rolling over southwestern California... This put FGZ near the strongest part of the mid level jet (it reported about 55knts) - Which is actually represented well by the ETA analysis, so I think the impact of the missing station in the model maybe relatively minor in the scheme of things...
Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase Target:
Between Storm Lake, IA; and Marshall, MN.
Timing:
Storm initaition 3 PM
Severe Mode:
Supercells and tornadoes before 00Z. By early evening, storms will transition into a linear system by 00Z with the severe threat transitioning into a wind event.
Discussion:
A complicated pattern will affect the plains and upper-Midwest on Friday. A long-wave trough dominates the western US, with the main vorticity lobe approaching the Missouri around 00Z. At the surface, the dryline will mix eastward to the MO river by 00Z, with the CF moving SE from SD. To the W of the dryline, veering BL winds and resulting mixing should allow temperatures there to soar.
The 0Z ETA has come into reasonable agreement with the 12Z UKMET and GFS, and all are representative of the 0Z analysis. Apparently the FGZ (Flagstaff) observation did not make it into the 0Z ETA, which is an important observation for this WX setup.
Significant moisture advection is already underway – the 0Z OUN sounding indicates a well-mixed 100 MB-deep moisture layer, with a 66F Td at the surface. The TOP and OAX soundings similarly indicate approximately 100 MB-deep moist layers, with a nearly 65F Td at TOP. A 30 KT moisture conveyer belt has set up from OK through MN. Related to the generous moisture return is a concern that excessive cloudiness will be in place over IA most of the day. First, it appears as though a CI shield will be in place through 0Z Sat along and E of a SPW-FNB-GAG line, based on ETA progged 250 MB RH. Indeed, the CI appearing in the current IR satellite concurs with the 6Z ETA. The lower layers show some drying from W to E between 18Z and 0Z; the 700MB and 500MB layers should be cloud-free over the NW half of IA, while a dry push at 850MB will move into SW IA by 18Z.
Initiation should occur along the dryline between Marshall, MN and Storm Lake, IA; by 3 PM. Significant severe is a possibility, with excellent wind shear in the 0-2KM layer as well as moderate instability. Storms in this area should become surface-based in the saturated BL.
bill
Between Storm Lake, IA; and Marshall, MN.
Timing:
Storm initaition 3 PM
Severe Mode:
Supercells and tornadoes before 00Z. By early evening, storms will transition into a linear system by 00Z with the severe threat transitioning into a wind event.
Discussion:
A complicated pattern will affect the plains and upper-Midwest on Friday. A long-wave trough dominates the western US, with the main vorticity lobe approaching the Missouri around 00Z. At the surface, the dryline will mix eastward to the MO river by 00Z, with the CF moving SE from SD. To the W of the dryline, veering BL winds and resulting mixing should allow temperatures there to soar.
The 0Z ETA has come into reasonable agreement with the 12Z UKMET and GFS, and all are representative of the 0Z analysis. Apparently the FGZ (Flagstaff) observation did not make it into the 0Z ETA, which is an important observation for this WX setup.
Significant moisture advection is already underway – the 0Z OUN sounding indicates a well-mixed 100 MB-deep moisture layer, with a 66F Td at the surface. The TOP and OAX soundings similarly indicate approximately 100 MB-deep moist layers, with a nearly 65F Td at TOP. A 30 KT moisture conveyer belt has set up from OK through MN. Related to the generous moisture return is a concern that excessive cloudiness will be in place over IA most of the day. First, it appears as though a CI shield will be in place through 0Z Sat along and E of a SPW-FNB-GAG line, based on ETA progged 250 MB RH. Indeed, the CI appearing in the current IR satellite concurs with the 6Z ETA. The lower layers show some drying from W to E between 18Z and 0Z; the 700MB and 500MB layers should be cloud-free over the NW half of IA, while a dry push at 850MB will move into SW IA by 18Z.
Initiation should occur along the dryline between Marshall, MN and Storm Lake, IA; by 3 PM. Significant severe is a possibility, with excellent wind shear in the 0-2KM layer as well as moderate instability. Storms in this area should become surface-based in the saturated BL.
bill
Joel Wright
EF5
Far eastern Nebraska and even southeast South Dakota look the best to me.
Here in NW IL we'll be stuck between crappy timing as usual. Everything always fires off out west, weakens as it nears this area, then redevelops the next afternoon to the east.... :x
Here in NW IL we'll be stuck between crappy timing as usual. Everything always fires off out west, weakens as it nears this area, then redevelops the next afternoon to the east.... :x
Justin Teague
EF3
As of 7:45 A.M. Extensive cloud cover with embedded shower activity across much of central OK and KS should limit widespread instibility this afternoon. Not too excited about SPC's take on things either. I'll wait at home and see if something goes up close.
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
RUC also now adding in 2500 j/kg CAPE over southeastern Iowa this evening. Maybe we really can squeeze something out for us easterners.
Amos Magliocco
EF5
Well, we were expecting the midlevel moisture and cloudiness and we got it--LOL. I'm in northeast Kansas and despite the 13Z Day 1 favoring tornado chances up north, I'm inclined to head for the dryline where dryslotting could eventually clear the skies and yield 1000 to 1500 j/kg SBCAPE along the boundary, according to ICT's discussion this morning. While convergence is weak and midlevel warming puts a prohibitive cap in place, I prefer this larger possibility of a total bust over widespread storms and grunge moving 50 knots along the warm front.
I'm looking at ICT to SLN for potential clearing near the dryline, hopefully by 18 or 19Z, but that's a wishcast as much as anything. Plenty of moisture in place already and temps are warm outside depsite the overcast conditions. Our surface low is deepening in CO and not yet begun its swift trek northeast, so these are all positives.
I'll likely wait around the ICT area and hope for the best.
I'm looking at ICT to SLN for potential clearing near the dryline, hopefully by 18 or 19Z, but that's a wishcast as much as anything. Plenty of moisture in place already and temps are warm outside depsite the overcast conditions. Our surface low is deepening in CO and not yet begun its swift trek northeast, so these are all positives.
I'll likely wait around the ICT area and hope for the best.
Jon Miller
EF2
Iowa discussion for this afternoon:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ia/discussion.html
Since I'm in Des Moine right now on vacation - am going to head up towards
Storm Lake to Sioux City area for this afternoon. Only a 5% risk right now -too iffy so I don't have great expectations on this chase but who knows.
Jon Miller
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ia/discussion.html
Since I'm in Des Moine right now on vacation - am going to head up towards
Storm Lake to Sioux City area for this afternoon. Only a 5% risk right now -too iffy so I don't have great expectations on this chase but who knows.
Jon Miller
Tony Laubach
EF5
Good morning from Colby...
Early glance at things this morning kind of came as a low blow. I was happy to see SPC's huge 5% get narrowed down a bit, but I guess I had hopes for it to be a bit closer here.
Jon Merage and I will probably head over to Salina and decide from there, as it looks like our best chance is going to be for the grunge to clear and temps to warm. SFC winds are mainly out of the south with some south/southwest east of I-35. The IR is showing the stream of clouds running right over the entire state of Kansas. This badly needs to go away. Temps are averaging close to 70 across the entire area of south-central/southeast Kansas with depoints well into the 60s. We just need those clouds to clear enough to allow for some more heating cause I just don't think lower 70s will cut it.
Anywoo, its about 200 to Salina from Colby, so we'll aim to be there with 3 hours. From there, I imagine a drop south will be in order as hopefully these clouds will start to give way. Not too excited for a lot, even less than yesterday. Hope still exists, though.. afterall, I am here!
Early glance at things this morning kind of came as a low blow. I was happy to see SPC's huge 5% get narrowed down a bit, but I guess I had hopes for it to be a bit closer here.
Jon Merage and I will probably head over to Salina and decide from there, as it looks like our best chance is going to be for the grunge to clear and temps to warm. SFC winds are mainly out of the south with some south/southwest east of I-35. The IR is showing the stream of clouds running right over the entire state of Kansas. This badly needs to go away. Temps are averaging close to 70 across the entire area of south-central/southeast Kansas with depoints well into the 60s. We just need those clouds to clear enough to allow for some more heating cause I just don't think lower 70s will cut it.
Anywoo, its about 200 to Salina from Colby, so we'll aim to be there with 3 hours. From there, I imagine a drop south will be in order as hopefully these clouds will start to give way. Not too excited for a lot, even less than yesterday. Hope still exists, though.. afterall, I am here!
Scott Olson
EF5
Well I took off the day and was planning on orignally driving deep into Iowa or Missouri but now I think im going to just stay right here. The Dry Slot should hit south of here 18z and burn that cloud cover up and temps are expected to rise fast. Warm air then advects north and should get the whole eastern KFSD area going by 21z. Im going to be conservative since the GFS and ETA don't agree on where the real potiental for tornadic cells is. However, I don't see any reason where there couldn't be several supercells by 21z, espically in NW Iowa. With the biggest threat extending in a Storm Lake, IA to Wilmar, MN.... Im going to wait here until there is some indication of intiation, if it does not occur by 21z im moving a little south of Marshall, MN... At least this part of Minnesota is still plains and not forest.
Good luck chasing today!
Good luck chasing today!
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