Amos Magliocco
EF5
On second thought---LOL. Putting my departure on hold pending the new SWODY2. 12Z ETA just looks terrible to me--weak instabilites, marginal shear. I'm not going to Minnesota in October no matter what the progs say.
Shane Adams
I'm commited to OK/KS tomorrow, so nothing indicates I'll be chasing tomorrow. I absolutely loathe chasing high shear/low CAPE days, such a waste of time. With no real thermal help tomorrow, my a** is staying parked.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
I'm still very suspicious of the ETA forecast CAPE... I think some area will see decent insolation tomorrow, and with Tds >65, we could see a 100-mile swath of strong instability. Those mesoscale details, however, won't be seen until tomorrow morning. Overall, I'm still on the fence, leaning towards a chase if for no other reason than the fact that this'll be the last chase until March...
Tony Laubach
EF5
I think a lot of us are holding their breath for the SPC Day 2.. all preliminary plans are in place and am just waiting to decide if I'll pull the trigger on this October venture.. right now, I am making arrangements to leave tonight to cruise way a couple hundred miles, then coast along towards the Kansas City area. Again, am waiting to see if I'm going to pull the trigger.. everything is in place that's not weather-related, so am praying that the weather will follow suit.
Justin Teague
EF3
The 12Z ETA doesn't look to promising for KS/OK.
The Truth(period). Hopefully the ETA is wrong. It always seems to underforecast CAPE, but I have a hard time disagreeing with it at this point. My target=home.
The Truth(period). Hopefully the ETA is wrong. It always seems to underforecast CAPE, but I have a hard time disagreeing with it at this point. My target=home.
Amos Magliocco
EF5
I've been talking with some other people about this CAPE forecast. I'd like to disregard it as well, but there's some underlying logic that makes it more difficult for me. First, the midlevel moisture and associated cloud cover is still there, obstensibly limiting insolation, Second, the low level jet starts veered and stays veered, scouring moisture from the top down, "cape-robber" style. Then third and worst of all, the slower, more positive tilt of the main system holds back the cooler air aloft so that our lapse rates are very poor. A friend compared our midlevel temps to summer and I agree.
The one spot in northern Oklahoma that looks to have barely enough instability to bother with, very near Ponca City, has only 100 j/kg difference between MLCAPE and MUCAPE. That's a pretty stable sounding to me. If the GFS will come to the rescue once again, I may still leave, but I'll be pointed at the Wellington, KS to Ponca City, OK area for maximum theta-e.
If I was in the plains, it would be a no-brainer. I'd definitely chase wtihout a second thought. But starting out here in Bangladesh is a different story, unfortunately. I need to move back home!!
The one spot in northern Oklahoma that looks to have barely enough instability to bother with, very near Ponca City, has only 100 j/kg difference between MLCAPE and MUCAPE. That's a pretty stable sounding to me. If the GFS will come to the rescue once again, I may still leave, but I'll be pointed at the Wellington, KS to Ponca City, OK area for maximum theta-e.
If I was in the plains, it would be a no-brainer. I'd definitely chase wtihout a second thought. But starting out here in Bangladesh is a different story, unfortunately. I need to move back home!!
Dan Cook
EF5
Watching WGN this morning, Skilling mentioned that he felt there would be a significant outbreak tomorrow like the Oct 2001 one.
Amos Magliocco
EF5
GFS looks better of course. Slower, more positive tilt (though not as positive at 18Z and 0Z as it was before) and all the happiness that should naturally emerge from divergence downstream and and a more southerly LLJ. What will the SPC say? Dan, did Tom Skilling mention his target? :wink:
Tony Laubach
EF5
Heading out to lunch... hope to come back to some good news! I'm not as certain about leaving as I was earlier this morning, so I am hoping for some renewed hope.. although conditions weren't the same, I'm reminded of the uncertainty of March 27 and remember its rewards.. we'll see..
*awaiting SPC's opinion*
...
*awaiting SPC's opinion*
...
Jim Bishop
EF4
Recall the Nov 10 2002 tornado outbreak across Tennesee and Ohio. CAPE was <1000 j/kg in most areas. The Van Wart (spelling) tornado existed in this environment.
It seems Friday's setups has similarities. I could see several low topped tornadic supercells in low CAPE environments from Oklahoma to Iowa. I agree that the MCS which will likely blow through Oklahoma Friday morning/midday will play a significant role in the setup for that area.
The ETA's apparent flip-flopping in timing of the shortwave is probably the main reason why the SPC does not have a moderate risk out.
It seems Friday's setups has similarities. I could see several low topped tornadic supercells in low CAPE environments from Oklahoma to Iowa. I agree that the MCS which will likely blow through Oklahoma Friday morning/midday will play a significant role in the setup for that area.
The ETA's apparent flip-flopping in timing of the shortwave is probably the main reason why the SPC does not have a moderate risk out.
David Draun
EF5
Skilling has a pretty good accuracy when it comes to these situations. He also never downplays a threat like some of the other Chicago TV networks.
SWODY2 is out. Whatcha all think?
SWODY2 is out. Whatcha all think?
Amos Magliocco
EF5
I'm driving to Kansas. GFS is enough candlelight in the dark tunnel of approaching winter for me, as long as I have the time off and the truck already packed. Best way to see what's going to happen is go look.
Amos
Amos
Dan Cook
EF5
He did mention that Iowa, N. Missouri, and western IL would be most at risk.
Mike Hollingshead
I STILL like the Grand Island NE area. ETA has the sfc low near North Platte at 1pm. MM5 has it west of North Platte! There may not be 65+ tds out there, but I would really bet they will be higher then progged. Models still trending west. I just don't get why spc 1730 day 2 has NO probs west of 40 miles into NE. Must be because of the veered 850 killing moisture?
Tony Laubach
EF5
I'm going to leave Denver about 10p tonight after work and head east into Goodland where I'll stay overnight. As it stands right now, I am going to head in the direction of Kansas City/Topeka, but will fine tune things in the evening hours tonight and morning hours tomorrow. I'm still thinking Kansas(ish), so I'm wagering my farm on areas south of I-70. May get my I-35 corridor wish! 
We'll see how things evolve over the next 12 to 24 hours.
**EDIT** Still have one small last work-related thing to take care of.. assuming that works, I'll be gone.. if it doesn't.. well, I won't be going! *LOL* But I don't anticipate a serious issue with it.
We'll see how things evolve over the next 12 to 24 hours.**EDIT** Still have one small last work-related thing to take care of.. assuming that works, I'll be gone.. if it doesn't.. well, I won't be going! *LOL* But I don't anticipate a serious issue with it.
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