Interesting changes in the latest 0z ETA run... In general, the slowing / westward trend is continuing, both in jet streak positioning and trough positioning, as well as in the associated surface low positioning. Now, for those who didn't want the widespread >75kt 500mb winds, there is good news -- the "slower" timing of the jetstreak means that the area from central KS is ~70kts, with 60-70kts in eastern KS, and 40-55kts in western MO. Whereas the old run had a 988 low near Mankato MN, the latest run has a 992 low in far SW MN. In addition, the dryline, which the 12z ETA had from OMA to END to Vernon, TX, the new 0z ETA shows the dryline from OMA to Woodward to south of AMA by 0z. Since the trough is coming through weaker and a little slower than previously forecast by the ETA, the relatively warm 850-700mb temps are remaining in eastern KS and eastward from there. It's important to remember that model forecast CAPE is pretty poor, but the 0z ETA shows >1500 SBCAPE basically north and northeast of OKC to Kansas City and up to near FSD at 18z Fri, though decreases that significantly by 0z, with the main precip well east of this area from STL to SPS perhaps. The warmer 850-700mb temps are making for a thermonuclear cap (unbreakable CINH) from eastern KS southwestward into OK. Now, again, models tend not to do well on CAPE/CINH forecasts, so take it for what it's worth... I'm still banking on nc OK and sc KS, however.
I think the OK potential hangs a lot on what happens with the ETA-forecast convective complex overnight Thursday and Friday morning. This could either mix over the atmosphere on the mesoscale and kill the potential, or it could provide us a boundary that would work northward through the day on pretty strong southerly synoptic-scale flow. In addition, we may get some mesoscale subsidence surrounding and nearby the complex, which may help clear out some clouds and increase the potential instability...
