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10/22/04 FCST: Plains/midwest

Cloud clearing in NE

latest vis imagery shows cloud clearing in northcentral and northeastern ne, which is now got my attention of all the times i chased them types of area can go from quiet to boom and out of the blue storms.... but then again theres limiting factors, IA i thought was and still might be a good bet but the cloud cover doesnt seem to clear at all in IA... im hangin around til 1:30pm then heading out if it still appears the triple point or close to it hits northern corner of NE/IA ill head up there... LETS HOPE FOR SOEM ACTION and mike h..... i thing you jinxed us on the very first post on the 10-22-04 post lol
 
This might be an after dark "show" if RUC is onto this at all. Grrrrr. At West Point NE library heading no where yet. Just TOOO bad the dews weren't further west where they really need to be.
 
OK i figured i will break the bad luck and say looks like nothing is going to happen and if anything does it will be weak..... this setup is crap and so is mother nature???? OK NOW WE SHOULD SEE THE BIG STORMS FIRE and ill end up getting clobbered with hail? sound about right lol



i hope we see something but maybe it is too late for us".... IL/IN/ will get the storms when this system moves there"


:?
 
Looks like possible initiation now just east of North Platte, NE. Vis imagery shows possible convective development, and radar reflectivities have just started being returned. Disorganized and messy ... thinking about disconnecting the gear in the vehicle now -

My brother just passed a group of chasers going north on I-29 ... wonder where they're headed ... hmmm ... :)
 
I'm south of Manhattan, KS where sfc moisture has eroded from the oncoming trough and mixing. In my experience this sort of pre-frontal trough-induced moisture gradient does not provide lift like a dryline, so if we're going to take advantage of still-modest theta-e values between KC and Omaha, we're going to need something else.

Luckily, the instability axis is to my east and so is Indiana. :eek:
 
I'm south of Manhattan, KS where sfc moisture has eroded from the oncoming trough and mixing. In my experience this sort of pre-frontal trough-induced moisture gradient does not provide lift like a dryline, so if we're going to take advantage of still-modest theta-e values between KC and Omaha, we're going to need something else.

Luckily, the instability axis is to my east and so is Indiana. :eek:

LOL... Bring it this way!
 
Sitting in Onawa, IA library, sun is trying to break thru, but struggling. Not really seeing much reason to continue my northward march. Local weather still calling for initiation after 21z between Yankton and Sioux City, 4 hours till dark! What did I expect, it is October. Will probably hang here for awhile and see if anything starts up.
 
I think these past few posts belong in the "NOW" thread... But anyway, I wouldn't go further north than the IA/MN state line. Those clouds are much to thick (as was expected given the very deep moisture all the way through the column there - You would need a dry punch at the SFC to scour that stuff away), and most likely it won't break up any time soon... Even if they do, it's already too late for that airmass to recover that quickly...

Looks like today was a bad forecast/bust for everyone, unless you at least caught the elevated stuff in IA, or the linear stuff in TX. :(
 
SUNSET TIMES:
631 PM CDT Watertown SD
632 PM CDT Sioux City IA
632 PM CDT Omaha NE
637 PM CDT Norfolk NE
631 PM CDT Watertown SD
632 PM CDT Sioux Falls SD
636 PM CDT Huron SD

Mike
 
Re: NE Okla Storms

I just returned from chasing storms north of Tulsa.
Storms moving NE 45 mph good lighting heavy rain that was it.

Just sitting in the SW MN, NW Iowa, SE SD boarder area watching the boundry of the fog / clear race by at 45 mph from the looks of it.

At least its a nice break from the low 30s from last weekend with the temp currently 73 outside.
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...FAR NERN NEB...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA
SPC mentions anticipated WW by 23Z.

23Z is 6PM CDT, Sunset times in that area would be:
632 PM CDT Sioux City IA
632 PM CDT Sioux Falls SD

Mike
 
New MD out for you Doug - threat of tors is mentioned:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2354.html

Better happen quick ... darkness is already spreading across the East Coast on satellite ... with all this grunge it will get darker earlier than the sunset times . . . ahhh . . . what a great day.


Yep, just waiting and watching on the MN SD boarder on I90, so far, just a nice fall day...
 
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