10/22/04 FCST: Plains/midwest

[Lance Maxwell]

Anybody else see this 5% area SPC just put out for the Southern OK/North Central Texas region? Not sure where that came from...

 

[Bill Schintler]

Re: what to do"?

:?: Well it looks like another day of CLOUDS CLOUDS CLOUDS im not an expert on alll the weather analysis, im seeming to think IA is a best bet for chasing, even if the tornado potential is North and into MN"? i see a nice storm in MO but prb jsut a heavy rain producer, if i was to pick an area for chasing id say I-80 east and I-35 cooridors.... anyone think things will get intresting by 2pm or earler? im pretty sure we will see something jsut a feeling but then again who know's


any thoughts"....


dan.c

Well, you will be amazed at how fast the ST will erode from SW to NE with the mixing that is well underway in NEB. This will leave an area in the SW corner of MN cloud-free by early afternoon. My concern is that pesky CI shield just east of the FA, which is showing signs of edging back to the W.

I would still target Marshall, MN today; along the WF.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Quick stop in Hays to get some info, saw the MD over Northern Kansas disappear quick and took notice of Texas's 5%. We're going to continue east and hit Salina where we'll take a look to see where things are coming together. I'm thinking along the lines that perhaps Northern Kansas may prove to be the victory march, but southern Kansas, too, looks inviting. Going to be making the final call here very soon.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Heading to Yankton SD, to Norfolk NE area. Good luck to all who are out.

 

[Edward Ballou]

Maybe the fiance will let me slip out of this date tonight...

If so, I'll probably head east from Brookings and then turn south. I think somewhere around Pipestone to Worthington seem the best shots. All depends on how much driving time I'll have.

EDIT: Woohoo, fiance let me go! Good luck tonight...

 

[Dan Christianson]

Cloud clearing in NE

latest vis imagery shows cloud clearing in northcentral and northeastern ne, which is now got my attention of all the times i chased them types of area can go from quiet to boom and out of the blue storms.... but then again theres limiting factors, IA i thought was and still might be a good bet but the cloud cover doesnt seem to clear at all in IA... im hangin around til 1:30pm then heading out if it still appears the triple point or close to it hits northern corner of NE/IA ill head up there... LETS HOPE FOR SOEM ACTION and mike h..... i thing you jinxed us on the very first post on the 10-22-04 post lol

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

This might be an after dark "show" if RUC is onto this at all. Grrrrr. At West Point NE library heading no where yet. Just TOOO bad the dews weren't further west where they really need to be.

 

[Dan Christianson]

OK i figured i will break the bad luck and say looks like nothing is going to happen and if anything does it will be weak..... this setup is crap and so is mother nature???? OK NOW WE SHOULD SEE THE BIG STORMS FIRE and ill end up getting clobbered with hail? sound about right lol



i hope we see something but maybe it is too late for us".... IL/IN/ will get the storms when this system moves there"


:?

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Looks like possible initiation now just east of North Platte, NE. Vis imagery shows possible convective development, and radar reflectivities have just started being returned. Disorganized and messy ... thinking about disconnecting the gear in the vehicle now -

My brother just passed a group of chasers going north on I-29 ... wonder where they're headed ... hmmm ...

 

[Amos Magliocco]

I'm south of Manhattan, KS where sfc moisture has eroded from the oncoming trough and mixing. In my experience this sort of pre-frontal trough-induced moisture gradient does not provide lift like a dryline, so if we're going to take advantage of still-modest theta-e values between KC and Omaha, we're going to need something else.

Luckily, the instability axis is to my east and so is Indiana.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'm south of Manhattan, KS where sfc moisture has eroded from the oncoming trough and mixing. In my experience this sort of pre-frontal trough-induced moisture gradient does not provide lift like a dryline, so if we're going to take advantage of still-modest theta-e values between KC and Omaha, we're going to need something else.

Luckily, the instability axis is to my east and so is Indiana.

LOL... Bring it this way!

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Sitting in Onawa, IA library, sun is trying to break thru, but struggling. Not really seeing much reason to continue my northward march. Local weather still calling for initiation after 21z between Yankton and Sioux City, 4 hours till dark! What did I expect, it is October. Will probably hang here for awhile and see if anything starts up.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I think these past few posts belong in the "NOW" thread... But anyway, I wouldn't go further north than the IA/MN state line. Those clouds are much to thick (as was expected given the very deep moisture all the way through the column there - You would need a dry punch at the SFC to scour that stuff away), and most likely it won't break up any time soon... Even if they do, it's already too late for that airmass to recover that quickly...

Looks like today was a bad forecast/bust for everyone, unless you at least caught the elevated stuff in IA, or the linear stuff in TX.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

NE Okla Storms

I just returned from chasing storms north of Tulsa.
Storms moving NE 45 mph good lighting heavy rain that was it.

 

[mikegeukes]

SUNSET TIMES:
631 PM CDT Watertown SD
632 PM CDT Sioux City IA
632 PM CDT Omaha NE
637 PM CDT Norfolk NE
631 PM CDT Watertown SD
632 PM CDT Sioux Falls SD
636 PM CDT Huron SD

Mike