10/2/07 FCST: NE/KS/MO/OK/IA/MN/SD/WI/IL

[Brian Stertz]

The GFS and Euro both show a very strong wave will traverse the Plains on Tuesday bringing what should be the fall's first significant severe wx event. The wave lifts northeast from the C/S Rockies and appears to be well timed with both peak heating and strong moisture advection. Right now the severe wx target appears to be favoring a corridor from SE South Dakota/SW Minnesota southwestward into C/E Nebraska & W. Iowa into C/NE Kansas. Strong vertical shear is forecasted in this corridor with deep layer shear in that magical 50-60 kts. range across the Pacific front. The deepest moisture looks like it will reach northward into C&E KS/C&E NE/W.IA where the significant severe wx possibilities should be greatest. Climatology certainly favors this area as well for this time of the "second season". Hopefully the models will be in better agreement with this system than Sunday's. I would have to say it has an interesting look about it should the models be on the mark with this one...especially with this one being the larger kicker system.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

I have been watching this system evolve from run to run... Looks like models are starting to converge on timing and strength.. Looks to be a powerful system.. Moisture in somewhat better supply with this system compared to today's (SUNDAY's event) however, it appears mid level shear, although still very sufficient may be somewhat weaker, characterized by 40kt flow.

Should be able to pin things down by tommorow I hope.

IL should definitely be added to the thread..

 

[Brian Stertz]

Looks like any supercell threat tomorrow should be focused from extreme SE Kansas into SW/C Missouri by later tomorrow afternoon/evening. 12z ETA has a surface wave lifting northeast from near Joplin MO to near Columbia MO. There could be enough low level shear to generate a few tornadoes (likely embedded) tomorrow along the track of this surface wave. Otherwise, it looks like a pretty widespread squall line situation.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Looks like any supercell threat tomorrow should be focused from extreme SE Kansas into SW/C Missouri by later tomorrow afternoon/evening. 12z ETA has a surface wave lifting northeast from near Joplin MO to near Columbia MO. There could be enough low level shear to generate a few tornadoes (likely embedded) tomorrow along the track of this surface wave. Otherwise, it looks like a pretty widespread squall line situation.

I dunno, I actually like NE Missouri and SE Iowa tomorrow. Surface winds are actually forecast to back slightly ahead of the wave, with a 60-65 H5 streak above southerly 850's at 40 kts. Moisture will be there with td's progged near 70F with surface based cape progged with pockets AOA 2200 j/kg. Things do look fairly linear otherwise, but I think in this area we might see some initially discrete storms capable of spinning a couple off.

I'm not sure I'll be chasing tomorrow... leaning towards no but I'll see how things look in the morning. If I did, based on tonite's run I'd likely head somewhere in a triangle from Kirksville, MO to Ottumwa, IA to Macomb, IL.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Since I can't chase I will have to hang out from home. 4km wrf is indicating a large cell(s) to move through. Instabiliy looking at the WRF looks pretty good across this region and down south. I'd target E KS into W MO if I could chase. Good luck to everyone chasing today!

 

[Jesse Risley]

I'm currently looking to target the Quincy, IL - Burlington, IA area. My only concern is the amount of instability that will be available in the region today. 0-6KM shear appears to be sufficient at 40+ KT. I'm guessing we'll see some sort of a squall line enter the region after 2100z.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Based on the latest RUC, I don't have much confidence for E. KS or W. MO today. I'm not sure that much destabilization will occur with the clouds hanging around. Shear isn't nearly as good either, with sfc to 500 nearly unidirectional. I may head out after class, and hope that something can fire ahead of the main line, somewhere between Garnett KS and Nevada MO. It's not terribly far away today, so I may give it a shot later on. I thought there might be a decent chance of a discrete supercell based off of the WRF last night, with a little better directional shear, but the RUC isn't in agreement. Good luck to anyone else today, if E MO/W IL/ and SE IA can get enough destabilization, I think that would be the best shot at seeing a tornado today.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I have scoured the data pretty thoroughly and will be watching things closely in the area between Sedalia and Kirksville MO for some potential later this afternoon. I guess the real key is how much of a cap builds/holds out ahead of the approaching wave. If the cap holds nicely, this could allow for a more soupy and unstable airmass to become established ahead of the pre-frontal trough. This in turn could support more intense updrafts and make for some more interesting supercells after 4pm. It does look like areas west of a Chanute KS to Kirksville MO line should remain socked in with clouds so would expect more embedded type supercells in this area. Looks like I will be on the hunt again today, and plan to head east on I-70 a bit later and hold in the Boonville MO area.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

I may target somewhere in northeast MO. At this time, looking at Vis Sat it appears that area is recieving some sun shine, or at least some slight breaks in clouds.. Latest RUC models show impressive Helicity Values in excess of 400 m2/s2. Also, RUC picked up on some slightly higher CAPE values reaching 850 - 1000 J/KG.. Also, models showing impressive QPF values along the front.. ADDS Convection forecasts indicate new intense convection developing along the front around and after 17Z. Clouds breaking in west central IL at this time.. I will play off the 1630Z outlook on my chase target.. Good luck all..

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Considering how badly my storm season during the spring went and how much I really want to give my HD Camera some more walkthroughs before next spring I'm gonna be going out today just to see if i might get lucky (or not, hehe). I'm thinking about NC Oklahoma into NE Oklahoma. 500 winds aren't too impressive, 30-35 knots and the whole setup doesn't scream anything but squall line to me...but considering I have had my best chase days on slight risk 2% days, it's worth a shot. Truthfully if I see some convection, see some lightning and maybe get some strong winds I'd probably be happy today.

Right now, I'm gonna be looking for the place where the winds are going to back the most, where there will be plenty of sunshine and just hope that I get something discrete for awhile. I think there will be pockets of moderate instability develop by this afternoon and combined with not bad but not good wind shear, you never know.

Right now the plan is to drive north on 35 a distance and just wait to see what happens...I'm laptopless, wx radio/scannerless so this will be done in primitive form for sure

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Too bad the last run of WRF removed the good low pressure in SE Kansas that could give a better low level shear in those zones with more chances for tornadoes.
Now I see two possible targets: est central kansas along the border and NW Missouri (more chances for tail end storms) or along the I35 in Bethany neck of the woods where I see a stronger unidirectional shear with a very strong LLJ.
Good luck to all of you chasing today.

 

[Buddy W Bradley]

I am in SW Missouri. The skies are p. to m. sunny and the dewpoint is between 68-70. Winds are very strong out of the south at 15-25 and gusty. I noticed we have some pockets of surface-based cape and mlcape near 2000. All we need is the front or a disturbance to ride up along the front and we will get a pretty good outbreak of severe weather. I have to bowl tonight, but if it holds off until after 9pm I will be chasing locally in the Spfld-metro area. I look for the storm prediction center to issue a tornado watch for this area due to the deep-layer sheer. I would pinpoint an area along the US 71 highway in western Missouri and follow the stuff NE before dark.