10/19/05 FCST: Plains

Moisture is strarting to increase across the southern TX panhandles. I really hope that we can get some low to mid 60s dew points here in the northern panhandles. I think that the storms will form really fast in the early afternoon hours and by the evening, squall out and move into Oklahoma. If we can get some isolated storms ahead of the line and just north of the front, feel that will be the best chance. Going to stay with my original target area. Stay at home here in Booker, TX.
 
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As of right now, I'm liking the area around Woodward, OK. I think the surface winds will be backed in this region which will obviously help with the tornado threat. I don't think moisture return will be a problem. Gage is showing a dewpoint of 52 right now with SE winds, so I think were good to go with that. Due to cloudcover, we may not see as much instability as we would like, but it's probably our last gasp for the 2005 season. Good luck to all that venture out tomorrow and remember to stay safe.
 
Not much has changed for me. I am still going to be targeting Woodward. I might end up moving West, but I will make that call once I have finished fine tuning my forecast in Woodward. As far as all the parameters go, I don't think much has changed aside from a slight eastward shift of the surface low. Moisture is still my biggest concern, but I think it will be sufficient for a decent probabillity of tornadoes tomorrow. Good luck to everyone heading out and I'll be in the green soft top Jeep if anyone wants to say hello. It would be nice to put some faces to the names.
 
Looks like Woodward for me as well. I like the combination of lower LCLS there (from the forecast soundings I saw this afternoon), higher helicities, especially the lower levels, and decent instability. This looks like we could see some low toppers tommorow for sure, kind of like what we saw March 21 (which turned out quite well for me :lol:) Anyone know of any good WiFi spots in Woodward?
 
I'm thinking Wheeler County TX or Beckham County OK. It looks like there will be the most clearing the for daytime heating. Also, looks like the the CAPE diminishes to the N, w/ some spotty low level shear at times. Unfortunatly I'm not able to make the chase this time because of classes but just wanted to throw my thoughts out.
 
The 6z NAM seems to have slowed the arrival of the mid-upper low a bit, with weaker 500mb winds progged over the risk area -- 40-45kts instead of 50-55kts. Current radar shows a couple of strong storms over the northeastern TX panhandle, with weaker showers over the rest of the eastern panhandle. Vis sat pics not really up yet, so tough to get a handle on cloudcover. Winds are still SE or SSE across the central TX panhandle, with upper 50s dewpoints pretty much across the entire area. The area of storms/showers continues to shift east/northeastward and will be in nw OK soon. Assuming we can get some sunshine after this mess moves away, I still think there's a pretty good chance of severe convection and a more outside chance of tornadoes, particularly along the front (as most have been forecasting themselves). Dewpoints, as I said earlier, are mainly in the upper 50s, so I have the contributino from evapotranspiration will be stronger than the reduction by mixing... We'll need some help to get into the lower 60s, and we'll need some help to keep those as heating commences and the boundary layer deepens. 700mb and 850mb winds are weak right now across the target area (look at the Vici profiler... yuck), but are expected to pick up rather quickly today as cyclogenesis occurs in nw Oklahoma (aided by upper-level divergence associated with the left-exit region of the strong upper-level jet streak and DPVA associated with the vort max). I'm still aiming towards Woodward, but that may change depending upon what the crapvection in the eastern panhandles does. Sunset time is about 6:50m for Fairview, OK.

EDIT: 0z WRF that Glen linked to previously is indicated a narrow area of semi-favorable conditions for tornadoes right up along the OK/KS border north of Woodward eastward to near I35. It is indicating only 1000-1500 sbCAPE, though 1200-1400m LCL along the border, with 1400-1800m immediately south of the border.
 
I think the best tornado time frame will be 21z to 23z or so farther west. I say this because I fear too much surface cold advection going into this evening in northwest oklahoma. In these situations, one usually plays too far east. I think lower topped supercells are likely along the TX-OK panhandle border. Reminds me a little bit of 10 April in this fashion... although the deep layer vertical wind profile doesn't look to be as unidirectional farther down the pacific cold front/cold front aloft into western oklahoma. catch the mini's early from guymon to beaver then if you can, bust it southeast into the gage-woodward area by 23 to 00z. The sun sets early, so play early!

Watch the DDC short-fuse composite at http://weather.gov/ddc/short.html

Mike U
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
The 6z NAM seems to have slowed the arrival of the mid-upper low a bit, with weaker 500mb winds progged over the risk area -- 40-45kts instead of 50-55kts.
Click to expand...

So much for the weaker winds...12 upper air obs show 55 kts at 500 mb already at AMA and 70 kts at ABQ at the same level. Deep-layer shear will obviously not be a problem today, but I'm becoming increasingly concerned about the elevated convection in the target area. I imagine that this will not last for too long, but lingering convective debris could become an inhibiting factor. Overall, I agree with Mike U in targeting the area where the cold core of the upper low will enhance instability the most (i.e. N and NW of the low).

I'm just not that impressed with the overall situation right now, because the low-level shear (that was supposed to compensate for a lack of moisture/instability) isn't all that impressive at the moment. Combine that with the elevated garbage to the NW and the already paltry moisture prospects, it diminishes my hope of significant supercells. However, this is not one to ignore, if you can chase it.

Gabe
 
If I were close enough (and I'm not) I would begin my day in Roger Mills County, Okla. and visit the Black Kettle National Grassland Park...which is the site of the Washita Indian Battle. My chase partner Doren Berge and I spent a most enjoyable morning there one blue-sky day in '03...and it was breathtaking.
Just hang there soaking up the silence...and keep an eye on Baron's and the sky. Make your moves accordingly.
Best of luck to all of you today. Ohhh woouldn't it be nice to end the season with a touchdown! Joel Ewing
 
Trying to make the most of the situation this morning, I still don't really have a lot of faith in any particular target. As Mike U mentioned, the signal for storms developing back along the cold front into the OK panhandle was again in the 00Z NMM WRF run, as well as the 12Z RUC, but the latter included the critical dry punch surging into the panhandle (over riding the front with nearly dry adiabatic low-level LRs), and it's tough to see that materializing yet looking at surface obs. NOT saying it won't happen, just no evidence in obs yet. Dewpoints have been steadily increasing this morning at places like TCC. This was I guess in the RUC forecast, but the winds in the Texas panhandle are too veered relative to current obs, and the trough now in the eastern TX panhandle with attendant showers was also not particularly well shown. Also, the current main westerly surge looks much further south in than is suggested in the RUC. The weak surface wave south of Wichita is veering sfc winds across much of NW OK, but further west this looks like less of a hinderance. I guess I'd think riding the north side of the westerly surge (won't call it a dryline as dewpoints at present are mid 50's behind the leading edge). So, despite the ongoing activity in the ne TX panhandle, I still am leaning toward that area as having the best potential by early afternoon. Maybe a few more hours of obs will shake things out.

Glen
 
Skys are finally starting to clear out here in the Northeast TX panhandle. Here in Booker, we got about .10 inches of rain. The showers just made it that more humid. Temperatures are reaching the low 70s and our dewpoints have reached the low 60s. On the surface, you can make out the developing surface low in hansford county. I do think that the skys will start to clear totally out and enough heating will occur for storms. The winds in beaver county are backed and I do believe that if we can get a little more heating, Beaver and Harper counties appear to be good. On the other hand, storms continue to develop of eastern Harper counties. I think staying on the northeast part of the surface low will be the best spot to be, Lipscomb and Beaver counties.
 
Latest mesoanalysis shows a developing dryline moving across the central TX panhandle. Deep mixing is occuring near the dryline/cold front intersection in the northern panhandle, with an agitated zone of Cu noted in the VIS magery. Boundary layer is becoming increasingly unstable, with sbCAPE approaching 2000j/kg in the TX panhandle, and as deeper moisture advects northward, the atmosphere across the northern TX panhandle/western OK will destabilize through the next several hours as well. Pockets of insolation is occuring ahead of the dryline, behind the previous convection across western OK. Continued low-level mixing and increasing surface-based instability could yield surface-based severe thunderstorms within the next few hours. Strong vertical shear through a deep-layer will support supercells -- with the main threat being large hail (2-3" inches) with the possibility of an isolated tornado or two later this afternoon and evening, given strong veering / nearly backed surface flow across the northeastern TX panhandle/northwest OK.

Pretty busy today, but will check back often...
 
Tornadoes look pretty good, and so do supercells. CAPE is in the tiny 1000-2000 vicinity, across the OK-KS regions. Hail still is a MAJOR threat to crops, and wildlife, and will be in the OK vicinity. Very nice backing/veering winds at the SRH 0-1km range.
 
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