1/10/08 NOW: LA / MS / TN / AL / KY

[Marc Remillard]

The storm on Macon looks very impressive, with couplets of +35/-50 kts as it moves over the city. Anyone's chasing this storm? it will be north of tuscaloosa soon...

 

[Justin E. Reed]

tornado confirmed in downtown Vernon. It appears a new circulation just went into Vernon .. I hope there is no fatalities there..

At least 1 injury reported, alot of damage, hundreds of trees down and cars damaged.

 

[stephanieschweitzer]

Nice live shot of storm at US 31 and 8th Ave near Birmingham looking North.
http://www.dot.state.al.us/Bureau/Design/ITS/PublicITS/CameraList.aspx

 

[Karen Politte]

I called Columbus AFB, and much trees down, many over 50 feet tall.

Justin - are you really sure you should be calling all of these official places like the NWS and AFBs during a tornado outbreak and asking how they are? I would think that somewhere that has just been hit by - or had a close call with - a tornado would probably have their hands full without having to answer phones on top of it all. Especially the NWS.

Instability has once again proved to us just how important it is for tornadoes. So far all of the significant, discrete storms have been further south than I expected, in the better air and greater CAPE. Further north, it is basically turning in to a heavy rain event. I would be more worried about flash flooding for a lot of places overnight tonight than I would a real tornado threat. Not to say, of course, that there hasn't already been some very significant tornadic storms around.

KL

 

[Jeff Snyder]

As a general overview:

Rather ridiculous low-level shear profiles present in the warm sector per latest SPC/RUC mesoanalysis, with 0-1km SRH ranging from 350-550 m2/s2 over the northwestern quadrant of Alabama (increasing to over 650 m2/s2 over central TN). Instability is still rather marginal, but low LCLs and a semi-discrete to discrete storm mode is still favoring tornadic supercells. 18z soundings from BMX and JAN appear to support the analyses, with ~1000 j/kg SBCAPE and strong low-level SRH (~400 m2/s2 0-1km SRH on the 18z JAN hodograph). OVC to occasional BKN conditions have been an inhibitor to destabilization, as we know.

Widely scattered supercells persist across eastern MS, far western AL, and points northward. The long-track significant supercell that I first started watching near I55 in central MS has persisted into northwestern AL, with reports of significant damage in Caledonia MS. Other scattered significant low-level mesocyclones accompany various supercells across this area as well, including a respectable low-level meso that passed over Macon MS. Convection, in general, north of I20 looks quite messy, but embedded supercells remain a good bet.
0.5 degree BR of supercell near Caledonia
0.5 degree SRV of meso near Caledonia

 

[Justin E. Reed]

Justin - are you really sure you should be calling all of these official places like the NWS and AFBs during a tornado outbreak and asking how they are? I would think that somewhere that has just been hit by - or had a close call with - a tornado would probably have their hands full without having to answer phones on top of it all. Especially the NWS.

One of the guys that was in my "A" school class back at Keesler AFB works there as an observer, and it was his personal cell number. Now calling an NWS, yeah that was overboard, but thats beside the topic at hand.

Flash flooding is a big issue right now in the South Nashville area, mainly within a 10 mile area east and southwest of the airport.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Instability has once again proved to us just how important it is for tornadoes. So far all of the significant, discrete storms have been further south than I expected, in the better air and greater CAPE. Further north, it is basically turning in to a heavy rain event. I would be more worried about flash flooding for a lot of places overnight tonight than I would a real tornado threat. Not to say, of course, that there hasn't already been some very significant tornadic storms around.

We all know that instability is important, but you can have significant tornadoes in low CAPE, high shear environments just as easily. Don't forget a few days ago we had high end EF-3 tornadoes, one of which was in southern Wisconsin in an environment with barely 500 J/kg of CAPE but high shear.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Jeff,

Take a look at the L2 data if you can. The velocity data is incredible, and it is low enough that it might actually be a sample from the upper portions of the tornado - similar to the OKC 99 case. Spectrum width spike in the center of the rotation as well.

 

[Karen Politte]

We all know that instability is important, but you can have significant tornadoes in low CAPE, high shear environments just as easily. Don't forget a few days ago we had high end EF-3 tornadoes, one of which was in southern Wisconsin in an environment with barely 500 J/kg of CAPE but high shear.

Well yes I know that CAPE isn't the be-all-and-end-all for tornadoes, I never have stated that low-CAPE high-shear scenarios cannot yield significant tornadoes. I've seen it many times and I know that it is possible. It just strikes me as interesting that it is grungefest up north and more discrete farther south (further south than the SPC had predicated in earlier Day 1 runs where the sig. tor. probabilities were honed in around NW AL etc....).

So far today has ceased to impress me, but did impress me earlier with great tornadic supercells across areas of MS and AL. Now everything is very, very messy and congealed. NOT good for chasing. I hope the chasers that were out had some luck.

KL

 

[Justin E. Reed]

The same storm that produced baseball hail and damaging winds in the northside of Jackson and Madison, MS areas, still has strong rotation as it enters Alabama near Pickensville, almost right over Pickensville Lake. Ironically, its heading towards a town called Reform. This cell will likely meet the same death of the Caledonia, Goodman storm. The activity is moving into areas less unstable, all because of the above mentioned cloud cover. I expect it to become a more damaging wind event as the evenin progresses in Alabama. Now in South Central and Southern Mississippi, its still rolling with several cells NW and NE of Hattiesburg, as well as a fairly intense storm moving out of the Mississippi Sound near Stennis Space Center and Waveland, where Katrina came ashore. Some slight rotation is evident in the Mobile radar, not so much the N.O./Slidell radar site.

 

[Dann Cianca]

WLBT was reporting that the Caledonia Elementary School was not destroyed. In fact, the high school was grazed, causing damage to the gym and football field and having some overturned cars and busses. One student was injured.

According to WLBT and the school superintendent.

 

[Jon Person]

Fox News says no injuries, but several downed power lines and an overturned tractor-trailer. Via The Columbian: "A tornado blew sections of roof off one building, damaged others, and knocked out power in sections of Hazel Dell and Fruit Valley today."

More Vancouver Tornado News

 

[Keith Mullen]

Well further Updates: on the ground for 15 minutes, 1,200 without power, several neighborhoods de-roofed and serious structural damage - Tracked from Vancouver lake on through Hazel Dell... Full extent of damage or injuries unknown...

 

[Mike Johnston]

Interesting comment in latest mesoscale discussion #51:

"PER COORDINATION WITH LOCAL WFOS...WILL DELAY THE REPLACEMENT OF WW
17 FOR 1-2 HOURS. WFOS WILL LOCALLY EXTEND WW 17 AS NEEDED."

I was under the impression that the local WFO's could cancel the backside of watch boxes when the threat passed, but did not realize the WFO's could extend/expand the frontside of watch boxes as the threat moves downstream. Anyone have any idea why this approach would be employed in this circumstance? Perhaps overall threat is diminishing, but SPC is reserving the flexibility to get out ahead of local cells without putting a large section under a new watch?

 

[Tomas Pucik]

I think situation is calming down a bit. Things looking more linear as large squall line is in progress and heading quickly eastwards. Number of warnings has lessened considerably.
Still some rotating cells, but all of them are already engulfed in line.
Now it will be more about straight line winds than tornadoes.