1/10/08 NOW: LA / MS / TN / AL / KY

[Chad Cowan]

Very dangerous situation unfolding as the storm mode is largely discrete even along the cold front. Unfortunately, this is likely to be a very deadly event for a few reasons:
1) Time of year - tornadoes in January!?
2) Geographical area and demographic (NWR listenership in this area is most likely nowhere near 3%)
3) Population density
4) Multiple rounds of long-track tornadic supercells over the same areas (warning fatigue)

It appears that (like Monday) most of the models have undershot the instability for today, I wouldn't be surprised to see tornadoes all the way up into central KY. Also, the GFS and NAM have also consistently undershot the depth of the surface low and put it further north. A stronger low further south will be a big factor in that crucial low-level advection and shear.

 

[Terry Tyler]

storm just W of mendenhall is looking stunning on the reflectivity...what a classic shape!

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Yikes; massive supercell crossing into Attala County in MS is quite a beast!

The town of Goodman (pop. ~1100) really looks like it took a hit in the last ten minutes.

EDIT: The Jackson metro area is now under a tornado warning.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Two very impressive supercells that have caught my attention...

1. The supercell with beautiful hook echo over Simpson Co, MS. A textbook reflectivity structure for a tornadic supercell, though the velocity structure isn't quite as nice as...
2. The supercell with a very strong low-level mesocyclone in Holmes and Attalla Cos, MS. The velocity data show this storm has a very large mesocyclone, with, again, textbook velocity structure for a strong tornadic supercell. In fact, the latest SVS for this storm mentions the dangers: "STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES."

Low-level shear parameters a favorable for significant tornadoes... This looks like a relatively typical southeastern US tornado event, with very strong low-level shear, low LCLs, and relatively low instability. The fast storm motion will exacerbate tornado damage potential given the amount of ground covered by a tornado during any given touchdown duration. Storm mode appears to have been the final "ingredient" that support a potentially-significant tornado event.

 

[Justin E. Reed]

I just called NWS Jackson. They are actually close to having backup offices due to a cell pushing towards them right now, so Mobile, Memphis, and New Orleans have been put on stand by. I think all cells will become discrete, with a new squall line developing later this evening. So, NWS Jackson could shut shortly until the cell passes.

 

[BrianBaker]

I am originally from MS and this is a scary looking situation. The visibility in these areas of MS is absolutely horrible. Secondly, people in MS are nowhere near as weather aware as people here in the plains. Homes are not well-built either. This is a scary situation. I hope everyone stays safe in my home state. Lastly I have to agree on the Attala County cell. Looks like a very strong supercell. Just got word from a friend of damage in Goodman with this storm. Hope everyone is ok.

 

[Rob Lightbown]

ABC 33/40 is streaming live now. Go to http://www.abc3340.com/weather/

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Oy, house has sustained "major" damage according to the NWS per WLBT feed. That same storm now has radar-indicated velocities of 55kts both inbound and outbound roughly 3.5miles WNW of Kosciusko.

EDIT: Holmes Co MS Sheriff reporting that two homes in the Goodman area were damaged as the storm came through.

 

[Dave Gallaher]

Sitting in Meridian under the cloud deck which seems to go on with no end in every direction

Yep--it's the soup. We deal with it almost all the time in spring systems, too. Nowcasting/radar is even more critical without the visual clues available in the alley.

I wouldn't go too far west at this point with storm motions being as quick as this. You are most likely going to be stretched between two or three options that will be difficult to decide upon when central AL gets going.

ATTM I'm hoping to head to Moulton to set up.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

The Hinds/Rankin Co circulation appears to have intensified pretty substantially over the last couple of scans right over the NErn Jackson metro; specifically as it passed through the Ridgeland area.

The NBC feed just reported that baseball-sized hail has fallen in Madison County in association with this cell.

 

[Justin E. Reed]

Tornado on the ground in SW Attala County, with extensive damage in Goodman. Clarksville, TN is under a warning, with hail reported and strong rotation just south of downtown. Alabama is starting in on the action, north and south of Demopolis, with another strong cell going to pass just north of Tupelo.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

The town of Ackerman (~1500) in Choctaw Co MS, based on the SRV from KGWX, appears to have sustained a direct hit in the last two or three minutes.

1855UTC:

1900UTC:

 

[Justin E. Reed]

They did state in the warning of a large tornado likely on the ground for that area. Also, NWR Meridian is gone, apparently they lost power to the tower, hopefully thats what it is. Storms are really gathering together in Middle TN, just preparing to cross into it at least, into the Nashville CWA. McComb, MS has been raked by at least 4 storms, no word from the city since then . The storm one county east of McComb is really tightening up, very nice, tight hook, with ball area on it.

 

[Darin Brunin]

Starkville looks to be in trouble of that couplet keeps strengthening each scan like it is now.

 

[Dave Gallaher]

The Ackerman cell is drawing a bead on Starkville--the meso mxshear was 29 /ks, outcranking the TVS mxshear a couple scans back.