09L: Hurricane Ike

[Jeff Snyder]

Appears Ike has really pulled together during the past couple of hours and is developing more of an annular structure. I am a lot more concerned about Galveston and the bay area than I was earlier. This is going to be bad.

Tim

I agree in that the structure seems to be greatly improved compared to the past 48-72 hours. In fact, that "dead" zone between the inner and outer eyewalls appears to be filling in right now. However, if I loop the last ~1 hr of HGX radar data quickly, it certainly seems to me that the storm has lifted just north of NW lately. If the center manages to past east of Galveston (even by 15-20 miles), I think there will be a huge change in the damage potential in that community. Indeed, if Ike ends up landfalling just NE of Galveston, there will be strong offshore flow. In addition, RECON continues to find that the NE quad is the worst by some margin, so even wind destruction potential would be quite a bit reduced. I think there could be a multi-billion dollar difference if Ike manages to landfall NE of Galveston as opposed to landfalling SW of Galveston. It seems that most of the TX coast is still is ENE to NE winds, winds that are parallel to the shore, resulting in a lessened blow (so far) since there is some significant wind reduction associated with friction over the land. It looks to me that the worst conditions may well end up NE of Galveston now (between Port Arthur and Galveston). Of course, there only needs to be one wobble to the due west to bring Galveston back into the NE quad.

Galv. is sitting just outside the inner eyewall now...

 

[B Ozanne]

I just heard Geraldo's producer yell "120-130"....no way that wind is anywhere near that strong. 30-50 tops at his location.

 

[Jason Harris]

You'd think with all of Fox news' money they could buy Geraldo an anemometer that works. Maybe he's on the metric kilometers/hour? Wonder if he'll be out there when the eyewall actually arrives. Smaller eye, more fun to come.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I just heard Geraldo's producer yell "120-130"....no way that wind is anywhere near that strong. 30-50 tops at his location.

120-130.... km/hr. Seriously, I wonder if they changed the reading to km/hr instead of mph. 120-130 km/hr would be possible.

 

[jladue]

I agree in that the structure seems to be greatly improved compared to the past 48-72 hours. In fact, that "dead" zone between the inner and outer eyewalls appears to be filling in right now. However, if I loop the last ~1 hr of HGX radar data quickly, it certainly seems to me that the storm has lifted just north of NW lately. If the center manages to past east of Galveston (even by 15-20 miles), I think there will be a huge change in the damage potential in that community.

I noticed it too. Will have to wait and see if it's a permanent shift or just a wobble. Have you noticed what the wobble period has been?

As soon as the cirrus shield started expanding northwest the storm has started looking better. A little late and fortunate for TX that the environment improves now OTW it could've been cat-4.

 

[Van DeWald]

I just heard Geraldo's producer yell "120-130"....no way that wind is anywhere near that strong. 30-50 tops at his location.

Maybe their anometer is set for kph and they don't know it. 120 kph would be 75 mph.

 

[Bill Tabor]

IR sat showing strong cold cloud tops on sw and s side of eye wall which should wrap to north near land fall time. Motion atm appears mostly northerly but I suspect a bit of westerly is about to kick in.

 

[Patrick Martin]

You'd think with all of Fox news' money they could buy Geraldo an anemometer that works. Maybe he's on the metric kilometers/hour? Wonder if he'll be out there when the eyewall actually arrives. Smaller eye, more fun to come.

Sounds like they need to keep buying him new blackberries. He reported it was lost in the surge, but I'd bet he dropped it in a toilet. His asst just said average winds of over 100 which is pretty hard to believe given the palm next to him.

 

[Jeff Richardson]

I'm also noticing a bit of northerly track of the eyewall during reflectivity images. Storm relative velocity images are amazing.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Interesting that spotternet shows a buoy in the gulf 42035 58mph with gusts to 74. How does a buoy make a report?

 

[Bill Hamilton]

Some online scanners from the Houston FD and Galveston area Skywarn HAM repeater.

Houston FD
http://tx.scanamerica.us/playlists/tx/harris/scanner1c-1221280636.asx

Skywarn HAM repeater.
http://tx.scanamerica.us/playlists/tx/galveston/scanner2c-1221280861.asx

 

[rdale]

Sends signal to satellite.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Wow! Checking Radarlab Hd animation of level 2 and it is amazing to see the eye wall shrink as it approaches shore with the heavier convection wrapping around. This combined with the worst surge combined with high tide. Amazing!

 

[Heidi Farrar]

Reed is streaming from the seawall again right now. It's interesting to think that the next hour or two will likely be the last chance that chasers/streamers & news types will have to report from Galveston on dry ground for possibly a few days... or longer? (Which brings the question to mind, how long would any flood waters sit there? Any estimates on that?)

 

[MClarkson]

It is interesting to see the water has risen on heraldos show. When it started there was just a little bit of foam reaching him. Now the runnoff from waves are all around him, getting to a foot deep at times(hes on top of a 17 foot seawall). At least the seawall is taking the bulk of the wave energy so the homes behind it will merely be written off and not wiped flat.

Not true at some of the other communities, where we are probably going to see those cat4-5 surge 'hiroshima' damage shots tomorrow.