09L: Hurricane Ike

[Robert Dewey]

The satellite presentation isn't the greatest right now though.

I think it's looking better than earlier IMO. At least I can tell where the eye is now that convection is blowing up around it as of 0015z.

 

[HAltschule]

Conditions at 42001 as of 2350 GMT on 09/11/2008:
Wind Direction (WDIR):SW ( 220 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):46.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST):62.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):14.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):14 sec
Average Period (APD):7.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):28.49 inPressure Tendency (PTDY):+0.15 in ( Rising Rapidly )

Peak Wave Height was 30.2 Feet a couple of hours ago.
----------------------------------------

Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL
Wind Direction (WDIR):E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):29.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST):35.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):26.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):15 sec
Average Period (APD):9.4 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):29.72 in
-----------------------------------------------------------

The wave height is 16 Feet at the buoy 20 Miles South of Biloxi, MS.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

We are now running the 248 nm radar mosaic and tracks at our usual spot:

http://www.stormtrack.org/radar/

The inner edge of the blue band is the 248 nm limit.

Tim

 

[HAltschule]

One more report: Ship report located about 70 miles south of Pensacola, FL reported 30 Foot Waves at 7pm EDT.

It is interesting to note that the Eastern "Eyewall" of Ike is directly over BUOY 42001 right now and the highest wind gust recorded was 'only' 62 Knots.

 

[Steve Miller]

Bob Hall and I just arrived at our target and are just now getting up to speed on info we missed on the road.
In our location almost exactly between Corpus and Houston, we are seeing a lot of staging of medical and infrastructure equipment (like generators, bucket trucks and welding trucks).
Lots of boarded up windows and fairly low traffic around town.
Noticed a lot of boats, RV's and ambulances northbound on our way in.
More a little later.

 

[B Ozanne]

It is interesting to note that the Eastern "Eyewall" of Ike is directly over BUOY 42001 right now and the highest wind gust recorded was 'only' 62 Knots.

Is that the huge 10m buoy? How does that compare to other buoy close encounters of the past? It seems like they always have a hard time recording anything close to the maximum indicated wind.

 

[HAltschule]

Is that the huge 10m buoy? How does that compare to other buoy close encounters of the past? It seems like they always have a hard time recording anything close to the maximum indicated wind.

That seems to be my recollection also. The Buoys usually don't measure anything close to the maximum sustained winds. Right now, it seems like the majority of the winds are location to the North of the center with not so much on the Eastern or Southeastern side.

Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
12-meter discus buoy
ARES payload
25.900 N 89.667 W (25°54'0" N 89°40'0" W)

Site elevation: sea level
Air temp height: 10 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 10 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: sea level
Sea temp depth: 1 m below site elevation
Water depth: 3246 m
Watch circle radius: 3172 yards

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

There has been a very significant increase in the outflow on the West side of the storm in the lastest SAT loop:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=ir&duration=4

Precursor to intensification? Perhaps a hot tower or two near the center as well.

 

[rdale]

I was just watching TWC and Stephanie Abrams said that there was a dropsonde that reported peak wind gusts at 139 MPH?!

Interim dropsondes are not to be trusted, either they are being incorrectly converted or we're missing something. The VORTEX message says max flightlevel winds at 100mph with surface winds at 56mph.

 

[HAltschule]

One Hurricane Hunter is currently in Ike right now. A new, 2nd Hurricane Hunter Mission jsut departed Biloxi, MS and is now 20 miles south of the AFB so we should start getting some new eyewall data in about 45 minutes or so.

Flight level winds in the past 10 minutes have been 100-115 MPH but I have not seen any SFMR winds over 85 MPH. I am starting to wonder if Ike will be downgraded to an 85 MPH Hurricane at 11pm?

 

[Jim Zandonai]

I agree that Ike does seem to be looking a little better recently. The WV imagery looks like Ike is reforming or trying to reform another impressive eyewall. The west side also looks much better then earlier IMO. Maybe it will be a 3 yet.
It's ironic where no one wants to see major damage occur on the coast or any loss of life yet everyone wants to see a powerful Hurricane at its best. Just as we all want to see a powerful tornado but in an open field. I guess we love the power and awe of weather but wish it wouldnt do damage either.

 

[rdale]

I am starting to wonder if Ike will be downgraded to an 85 MPH Hurricane at 11pm?

There is NO way they will downgrade until landfall...

 

[HAltschule]

There is NO way they will downgrade until landfall...

I was thinking the same thing...even if it were warranted (which it may or may not be). Its part of the public perception plan.

(Now watch them lower it at 11pm)

 

[Eric Flescher]

Leave Galveston or die

pretty urgent to say the least

Latest news from CNN says that
(1) storm surge will be 20 feet on shore
(2) stay near sure and it is certain death (wowwww!!)
(3) Ike is huge hurricane
(4) category 3 now hurricane and cat 3 winds
(5) will come ashore at Galveston and get blasted

::

There is NO way they will downgrade until landfall...

 

[Marc Austin]

pretty urgent to say the least

Latest news from CNN says that
(1) storm surge will be 20 feet on shore
(2) stay near sure and it is certain death (wowwww!!)
(3) Ike is huge hurricane
(4) category 3 now hurricane and cat 3 winds
(5) will come ashore at Galveston and get blasted

::

(1) Ok, that's possible, given the size, but I'd suspect more like 15'-20'
(2) Already read that from earlier...
(3) Obvious...
(4) Category 3? Do they have some source of information that we don't? It's been a CAT 2 forever now.
(5) Galveston will get blasted or Ike will get blasted? If the storm goes north of Galveston, the only thing blasting the island town will be high winds and possibly some flooding due to rains. If it hits just south, well... refer to item (2) above...

The storm has had a hell of a time trying to get organized and seems to have decided to just grow to be the size of the entire GoM instead. Maybe not the intense wind damage potential, but certainly a problem for storm surge reasons. Also... plan on paying more for gas.