Jay Cazel
EF4
Remember that sea wall is 17ft high so it might look like it is right on the road, you just can't see the beach from that cam.
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09L: Hurricane Ike
- Thread starter Greg Blumberg
- Start date
Remember that sea wall is 17ft high so it might look like it is right on the road, you just can't see the beach from that cam.
Rob Wadsworth
EF5
Newbie Question:
Does Ike have any western mid-level/dry air sheer affecting its strength - like what happened to Hanna?
Or is it absent?
Does Ike have any western mid-level/dry air sheer affecting its strength - like what happened to Hanna?
Or is it absent?
Darren Addy
EF5
For Galveston/Houston's sake, we have to hope that Ike tracks north of there. If it tracks south, it will get the brunt of the surge. These are images from a Computer Simulated "Hurricane Carly". Do not be deceived by the Category strength, but look at the sea surge heights:
And with a 19 foot sea surge:
(This is a simulation)
The 17 foot Galveston sea wall has never been topped by sea surge from a hurricane and for the sake of Galveston I hope we don't see history made in less than 36 hours.
As far as Houston is concerned:
Again, it may be a mistake to focus on the Category strength with this graphic. Instead, I would argue that one must look at the storm surge height (which is normally related to the category strength. Ike seems to be an anomaly).
And with a 19 foot sea surge:
(This is a simulation)
The 17 foot Galveston sea wall has never been topped by sea surge from a hurricane and for the sake of Galveston I hope we don't see history made in less than 36 hours.
As far as Houston is concerned:
Again, it may be a mistake to focus on the Category strength with this graphic. Instead, I would argue that one must look at the storm surge height (which is normally related to the category strength. Ike seems to be an anomaly).
Warren Faidley
Supporter
In Galveston, total media zoo. Surfers driving local officials crazy. Water is rising along sea wall. A lot of areas along the wall, no beach area is left uncovered, just water crashing to the wall. Waves coming over a pier on the west side -- doubt the pier will last. I suspect water will have no problem coming over the wall in some areas, but a lot depends on the position of Ike and how much surge is produced in advance. Hard to believe the water is this high already. Reminds me of Katrina the night before. Have motel room right across from the seawall........ YES.... I plan to be out of here before it's washed or blown away!
Warren
Warren
MClarkson
EF5
I really like the IKE index. Im reading that paper now. We all know that the SS scale does not correlate that well with storm surge.
It certainly explains Ikes higher central pressure and lower winds, despite excellent strengthening conditions. The wind field is so extensie, that is where the energy is going that for other storms goes to the eyewall. It looks like only a jog north... placing Houstons coastal suburbs on the weak side, will avoid disaster.
It certainly explains Ikes higher central pressure and lower winds, despite excellent strengthening conditions. The wind field is so extensie, that is where the energy is going that for other storms goes to the eyewall. It looks like only a jog north... placing Houstons coastal suburbs on the weak side, will avoid disaster.
Darren Addy
EF5
Yes, and (not to open another can of worms) but it seems like the Enhanced Fujita Scale debate could learn something from the IKE index which recognizes that wind speed is not everything when it comes to rating hurricanes. The total area affected and the degree of the damage have to be taken into account, not just what Category winds it has/had.
George Kourounis
EF2
I'm in Galveston now, right along the sea wall and the locals keep telling me that they've never seen the ocean this whipped up 36 hours before a hurricane. Some areas to the south already have water rising up and covering the roads. There's also already been a brush fire caused by a downed power line right near my hotel.
Right now I'm resting up, battling a dose of food poisioning... The LAST thing I need right now.
George Kourounis
www.stormchaser.ca
Right now I'm resting up, battling a dose of food poisioning... The LAST thing I need right now.
George Kourounis
www.stormchaser.ca
Paul Redmond
EF2
Looks like San Antonio and most of south texas inland is off the hook both wind and rain wise. My prayers to those in north texas and all along the texas coast. Also very interesting about IKE (not to be confused with Ike).
B Ozanne
EF5
What protects Galveston from bay flooding?
Darren Addy
EF5
OT: I hope I'm wrong and it never happens, but think the odds are pretty good that when the first chaser is directly killed by a storm it won't be by a tornado or by lightning, but by a hurricane.
If you stay in it there too long there isn't any way out of this bear's cage, friends.
If you stay in it there too long there isn't any way out of this bear's cage, friends.
Dick McGowan
EF5
Lol wut? Bear's cage is in reference to a supercell not a hurricane. If you really hope it never happens, you'd probably not publically say that you hope it never happens, that just goes without saying.
Ryan Orlando
EF0
I was just watching TWC and Stephanie Abrams said that there was a dropsonde that reported peak wind gusts at 139 MPH?! Can anyone confirm this? If this is the case and it looked like it was on the northwest side of the storm that it is going to rapidly strengthen. I hope KCLL will fare well for Ike if this is the case.
Paul Redmond
EF2
A nine mile wide eye wall can be viewed as a large bear cage. Only in this case your in the cage surrounded by lots and lots of bears.
B Ozanne
EF5
I missed that, but I was watching Stephanie Abrams.
The satellite presentation isn't the greatest right now though.
HAltschule
EF5
Sustained middle range Tropical Storm force winds of 50-60 MPH are already being reported on the Buoys and Ships just south of the LA and MS coastlines. Numerous ASOS stations inland in Southern Louisiana are also reporting wind gusts as high as 50 MPH. The extremely large size and scope of this hurricane is amazing. Very impressive!!
A 25 foot storm surge, as NHC is predicting at the heads of bays near Galveston, would be very devastating for most of the area. I hope all chasers and media folk realize the enhanced risk of storm surge flooding and inundation where they are and that they stay in safe spots.
A 25 foot storm surge, as NHC is predicting at the heads of bays near Galveston, would be very devastating for most of the area. I hope all chasers and media folk realize the enhanced risk of storm surge flooding and inundation where they are and that they stay in safe spots.
