09L: Hurricane Ike

[Justin Turcotte]

Most of us probably remember the Katrina statement that came out of NOLA stating the gravity of the situation. Looks like HOU took a page out of that playbook. I feel surge is going to be the the big story should the storm strike south of GLS...

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING
EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL
FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES
LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET
FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY
FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH
MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK
CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

The discussion continues detailing potential wind damage.

 

[Darren Addy]

An interesting side point, not unrelated to Hurricane Ike, is another IKE: Integrated Kinetic Energy. This is a proposed new way to look at the destructive potential of hurricanes (instead of the "old" Saffir-Simpson Scale).
Paper here: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Powell/BAMS_IKE_Paper_final.pdf

Evaluating past hurricanes using this new IKE scale, Katrina and Wilma earned a 5.1 at their peaks. At 9:30am EDT this morning, Hurricane Ike earned a 5.6 on this scale, the highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years. -source

I haven't groked the entire paper yet, but it appears to me that IKE sees the potential damage from the wind as separate from the potential damage of the storm surge. This makes a lot of sense to me and Hurricane Ike illustrates why. Not too scary in the wind department, but due to its huge size it is moving a LOT of gulf water. Buoy 42001 has registered wave heights of 30.2 ft a couple of times today.

 

[rdale]

Is Houston really that susceptible to a hurricane? I guess I could see Galveston areas needing that sort of prodding, but Houston?

 

[Jay Cazel]

Is Houston really that susceptible to a hurricane? I guess I could see Galveston areas needing that sort of prodding, but Houston?

Well I would guess it is just around the bay, Houston city limits goes right up to it....But north Houston or the west part no.

 

[Kenny Drake]

Is Houston really that susceptible to a hurricane? I guess I could see Galveston areas needing that sort of prodding, but Houston?

Remember what happens in Houston when they get 6 inches of rain in 4 hours? Well, this weekend will be a refresher. Houston will be in danger of flooding from wind-driven rain. 100mph winds would cause some major problems. Trees falling on cars, houses... hopefully not people. Call it what you want but I would consider that a life-threatening situation. However, what makes Houston the most susceptible is the population density. I believe about 5.6 million people live in the Houston area, which is more populated than any other hurricane-prone area in the US except for the northeast.

 

[Darren Addy]

Is this the "real" eye beginning to show at 3:15 CDT?

Ike now has a northern "arm" that reaches clear back east of the BAHAMAS. This is the most incredible storm I have ever seen.

 

[Marc Austin]

Is Houston really that susceptible to a hurricane? I guess I could see Galveston areas needing that sort of prodding, but Houston?

It's called compression, when the surge is forced into the bay(a smaller area), it will rise more rapidly as it cannot be dispersed in all directions. I don't know that Houston will be at extreme risk, but Galveston certainly is along the current forecast track.

On a side note, I see many of you aren't that impressed with the way Ike looks right now, and it certainly isn't the perfect category 5 hurricane, but the increase in size over the past 48 hours has been amazing! This is one of the largest hurricanes I can remember, and while it may not come in as a category 3/4, it will damage hundreds of miles of the TX coastline. It still has 24-36 hours to strengthen...

 

[Ed Boik]

Ike has been a conundrum. It appears that it has been ready to take off in intensity for quite a while however the structure doesn't remain persistent enough to encapsulate the core in intense convection.

That being said, it appears that in the last couple enhanced IR frames that the strong convection is becoming more consistent-- especially on the forward flank. The super cold tops aren't there yet, but I'm starting to see satellite evidence that slow strengthening is likely over the next 12-24 hours.

I'll be surprised if Ike makes it to 120 mph before landfall as the latest NHC discussion item suggests.

 

[Ryan Orlando]

You can still see dry air penetrating the western periphery of Ike. However I'm starting to see good outflow on all sides of the system now. Perhaps it's starting to win against the dry air and may strengthen to what the NHC has been waiting. Around here it is a wait and see with all of the evacuees coming here. We'll see if Ike has anymore surprises in store.

 

[B Ozanne]

Galveston webcams: http://www.galveston.com/webcams/

I wonder if the water always come up to the road like that?

 

[Chip Redmond]

I wonder that since it has such a broad wind field if it will mix the water with cooler water more than normal? Will that perhaps prevent it from building to a larger or stronger Cat 4 hurricane before landfall?

Chip

 

[rdale]

There's really no support to even think Cat4 at this point - regardless of any water mixing.

Galveston webcams: http://www.galveston.com/webcams/

I wonder if the water always come up to the road like that?

Which cam? All looking dry to me now.

 

[Ryan Orlando]

Galveston webcams: http://www.galveston.com/webcams/

I wonder if the water always come up to the road like that?

No it usually isn't. I have been there long enough to know that the water doesn't usually get close to the seawall. We are starting to see waves pick up. On FOX 26, the local Houston affiliate, they have shown pictures from Surfside (southwest of Galveston with no sea wall) and water is already approaching the first row of houses. Ike has a great potential to have big storm surge.

 

[B Ozanne]

Which cam? All looking dry to me now.

"Seawall Cam". I guess its an old image, but at 1pm the water was right next to the road.

 

[Mitchell Daszewski]

"Seawall Cam". I guess its an old image, but at 1pm the water was right next to the road.

Yes, the water is closer than usual, however the cam doesn't do a good job of showing the drop off behind the road. It makes it look like the water is right next to the road, which it is not. There is a drop off of a few feet after the road before you hit the beach.