09/13/2018 - Hurricane Florence

[Dan Robinson]

Figured it's past time to get this thread going for possibly the first major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas in 22 years.

A few notes regarding chasing in these areas:

Pros:

- a Wimington landfall would make chasing much easier as this is a large metro area with plenty of available shelter.

- No major bridges are necessary to reach the coast in the Wilmington area, meaning the chances of getting in/out are better.

- Morehead City to Myrtle Beach are fairly urbanized with a lot of road access and infrastructure, making for a large target area for shifts in the storm's track.

Cons:

- Landfall timing could be close to or after sunset.

- The Carolinas are notorious for tall trees that are long enough to block even major highways and interstates when they fall. Expect all routes out of the area, including those very far inland, to be blocked by trees for possibly a day or two after landfall.

As always, if you plan to chase Florence, please be aware of the planning and safety issues that come along with chasing a strong hurricane. This is not a tornado chase. Many things can go wrong and put you in peril, especially if you do not prepare. A general rule is at least 5 days of food and water per person and at least one extra tank of gas in cans (stored and safely secured outside of the vehicle).

If you have never chased a hurricane before, I would not recommend a major for your first one.

In any case, Chris Collura's primer on hurricane chasing is required reading:

https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/hurricane-chasing.5851/

 

[Ethan Schisler]

I will be departing Tuesday evening for North Carolina to document this one with some others from Illinois here.... We did Irma last year and I’m expecting this to be worse in regards to storm surge and flooding. As Dan mentioned above, Wilmington area would be the easiest target for this one, but being several days out it’s impossible to nail a specific area. The outer banks will be off limits and I’m sure the bridges to those areas will be closed down once winds reach tropical storm force.

We are going to arrive fairly early to scope things out and get some shelter and a place to stay. I’d recommend anyone heading out to pack some non-parishables ahead of time and stock up on a couple gas cans worth of fuel. Fuel and food will be very difficult to come by once it gets close to crunch time from my experience. I hope everyone will remain safe and I hope the forecast isn’t as bad as it looks for the sake of the people that live there. It’s easy to get caught up in the adrenaline of storm chasing and forget that these events have huge implications for residents....even well after the storm passes. So I hope for the best in that regard. Be safe and best wishes to anyone that heads out.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Dan made some very good notes. Here are my issues:

1: You must be in the "on shore" winds sector if waves and surge is your goal. I ended up in offshore winds during Isabel and it sucked eggs. I believe the only location for an intercept is possibly Wilmington unless you want to be inland (boring). Wilmington is a really small target given the low end model accuracy this far out. My gut feeling is that Wilmington will end-up in offshore winds. Most hurricanes I've tracked along the east coast like to turn / wobble north before landfall.

2: There are NO substantial shelters (garages, etc.) along the coast from the SC border to Atlantic City. It's mostly homes, businesses, resorts and hotels with surface parking. I am not aware of a single multi story parking garage on the coast except in Myrtle Beach -- and that hotel will be closing / evacuated. Take a careful look at Google satellite mapping. If Florence comes in as a full blown Cat. 4 storm, you will not survive if you chase on the barrier islands and they could all be moon scaped.

3: Atlantic City / Norfolk: This region is second to New Orleans in flood potential from a major hurricane. The surge maps max out at a category 4 storm and indicates the entire city would be flooded, possibly for a long time, especially if Florence stalls as some models are showing.

4: There are other storms in the mix and they could land in more favorable chase locations.

5: Night-falling storm. Good chance. This also sucks.

Like Dan said, this is not a good storm to chase unless you have a lot of experience and don't mind being possibly trapped for days or weeks. I've already read social media posts from idiot chasers boasting about where they plan to go. RIP.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Models are starting to cluster more northward toward an Isabel-like track closer to Cape Hatteras with landfall solidly in the nighttime hours. As Warren pointed out, the Outer Banks have no substantial shelter or high ground. I would consider those locations an absolute no-go for a Cat 4 unless one is OK with losing their vehicle, cameras, computers and worse. The only other alternative for intercept in this area is *way* inland along the Highway 17 corridor. You probably won't need a parking garage for shelter at that point, but will be dodging trees left and right and could find yourself stranded for a very long time until the roads are cleared.

I was originally fighting an impulse to leave for this one, but it's looking less and less favorable for chasing in my opinion despite the likelihood of being a historic event.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Queen to rook level three. I love the chess game hurricanes offer when they are 3-4 days out and it's travel decision time. It's so much fun to alter flights, hotels and rental cars three or more times. I've had this gut feeling since the initial forecast that Florence would turn northward. The latest (12z) GFS suggests weaker ridging configuration and turns Florence further north / northeast, with either a Virginia Beach impact or possibly brushing the coast and stalling offshore in the doldrums. This would also alter the playtime to possibly daylight. Either way, I have to make the decision by late this evening.

Edit: The 5:00 p.m. NHC discussion is going to be very interesting.

 

[Royce Sheibal]

Last GFS has a 900mb Florence doing a loop de loop along the coast then turning west into Cape Hat. GFS is either on drugs, or it's stalling out the storm over the gulf stream and going to town.

 

[rdale]

The GFS does not couple with the ocean, so it assumes water temps don't change under the hurricane. #DontUseIt

By the way if you're using GREarth or some websites like TropicalTIdbits you can see the combination of MESO1 and MESO2 satellite sectors to give us 30 second updates under 3 minutes old!

 

[Warren Faidley]

Just to give everyone a heads-up, they are reversing lanes in the next 24 hours in many coastal locations. Make sure to factor this in if you are chasing.

 

[MClarkson]

Hugo peaked at what, 20 feet of surge? This system could be in the same ballpark...

And then a possible stall/rainfall event just after landfall? Messy...

 

[Warren Faidley]

If it holds together it will be epic. The biggest issue I see right now with chasing is that this region does not have a lot of experience with major hurricanes (as opposed to the Gulf / Florida regions) so I expect some late hour panic by public officials who might close areas or roads that could trap you in an unfavorable location. It's also been my experience that pre-storm surges will close off routes early, like when I almost got tapped on Crystal Beach during Ike. This is similar to officials closing roads during a tornado. I have a good hotel with a garage in my target location, but any last minute evacuation could be a serious issue since going inland won't allow an escape.

I hope they have not waited too long to get people out.

 

[MikeD]

Night landfall and possible category 5 hurricane? What is this? But majority of graphs show it as only category 4, so don’t hope for anything really good. Perhaps it will make history.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Interesting 11 p.m. discussion from the NHC regarding Florence. As my guess was right, the storm has been shifted further north. I would not be surprised to see the path moved even further north.

I have decided not to pursue this storm for multiple reasons including increasing possibilities of a night falling main event and the lack of multiple, safe intercept points. Nor do I want to be trapped in the region due to prolonged, epic flooding. I also want to be ready for a Gulf storm.

For those chasing, be safe. No storm is worth your life. Avoid the lure of those sandbars and watch for falling trees.

 

[Ethan Lang]

Experiencing a hurricane is definitely on my bucket list however, due to the possible magnitude that Florence may bring I do not feel comfortable choosing this one as my first. I worry that with some of the chasers going they might be biting off a little more than they can chew. For other chasers who have plenty of experience with canes, this is going to be epic for them. One thing that caught my eye was how rapidly it intensified on Monday. The GOES-16 shows warm SSTs all the way into the coast and the feeder bands going into it are pretty gnarly as well. The latest update from NHC has it at 130 mph and 950mb. I think that with SSTs as warm as they are that this thing may even get stronger before landfall. However, I do not believe all the media buzz that this could reach CAT5

 

[JamesCaruso]

Hurricanes were my “first love” growing up on Long Island; I was interested in them well before tornados, which were almost an afterthought at the time, like “it would be awesome to see one, one day...” I used to go to the beach during the “brush-by’s,” and in the aftermath of Hurricane Gloria in 1985 I even considered changing colleges to take up tropical meteorology. Well I never did that, fast forward 11 years and I was a CPA that had caught the Plains supercell and tornado chasing bug. [emoji57]

I never stopped being interested in hurricanes, but never seriously chased any, beyond visits to the NJ shore (now that I live near Philadelphia) when tropical systems would approach. A real hurricane chase is on my bucket list. But the whole thing seems logistically incomprehensible to me. I’ve seen police close roads and kick people off the boardwalk in central NJ during storms like Irene when there was no real storm surge threat. How the hell do you get into these places when there is a mandatory evacuation? I know some guys (Warren?) have press passes, but what about regular guys like me? Will a hotel allow you to stay if there is a mandatory evacuation? If not, then where else can you possibly go, other than a parking garage? And how many of those can be found in coastal sections, I mean we’re not talking about cities here... (Although, @Warren Faidley, you said there were no hotels with other than surface parking from the NC/SC border to Atlantic City, but what about VA Beach, don’t they have a few in the downtown area? Maybe Ocean City MD also?)

Bailing out of work without notice for an indeterminate amount of time is not possible for me at this stage of my life anyway, but I continue to dream about a hurricane chase and try to accumulate as much knowledge as I can in the hope that the day will come. But despite all the tips and advice out there, I am still perplexed by the questions above; I really haven’t seen anyone explain the practical logistics of exactly how they get into these areas and get around to adjust position when there are mandatory curfews etc. I hope those with experience will provide some insights. Thanks!

 

[JamesCaruso]

This was posted on a local Philadelphia weather forum today (phillywx.com) - may be a little dated but interesting insights on why the GFS track was not reliable

https://mobile.twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312?s=21