09/13/2018 - Hurricane Florence

[Warren Faidley]

Hurricanes were my “first love” growing up on Long Island; I was interested in them well before tornados, which were almost an afterthought at the time, like “it would be awesome to see one, one day...” How the hell do you get into these places when there is a mandatory evacuation? I know some guys (Warren?) have press passes, but what about regular guys like me? Will a hotel allow you to stay if there is a mandatory evacuation? If not, then where else can you possibly go, other than a parking garage? And how many of those can be found in coastal sections, I mean we’re not talking about cities here... (Although, @Warren Faidley, you said there were no hotels with other than surface parking from the NC/SC border to Atlantic City, but what about VA Beach, don’t they have a few in the downtown area? Maybe Ocean City MD also?)

There is no one answer when describing how to chase hurricanes -- each one requires a customized assault. I personally like to be in the surge, with the heavy wind and all hell breaking lose. But this only works in a "controlled" environment, where I have multiple layers of painfully planned options for everything from a Cat-1 to a Cat-5. This started with Andrew and the 170+ gusts I encountered in a concrete parking garage. I was still cut by flying glass and took a pounding but it was the experience of a lifetime to be in the core of a Cat-5. For Florence, I spent days looking at satellite images of the NC coast and could not locate one position that offered direct access to the Atlantic shore with multiple layers of protection. (There was one location on Myrtle Beach but I think it will be in the offshore winds). My target was Virginia Beach and I had carefully organized multiple vantage points, where I could secure a vehicle 40 feet above sea level, loaded with food and water, then Uber around until the party started. (I found an Uber guy who wanted to chase until the storm hit). The other option was to stay inland near a marina, but everyone will be doing that and flood shots do not market well as everyone will have them. Inland locations also produce more flying debris. The great thing about working on the beach is that inbound winds may knock you to the ground but there is limited debris. I also like to be where no one else is shooting.

Picture: Lonely chaser Faidley vs. Hurricane Irma in Miami.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I went back on standby mode for chasing this yesterday due to the trends toward a daytime landfall. Early this morning was my go/no go decision, and I made the final call to stay home. There is just too much uncertainty regarding landfall at Cat 3+ intensity, if it even happens at all. The flooding will make last-minute repositioning impossible. The dramatic changes to each NHC update are telling - no steering flow means little predictability, I expect more major changes right up until 6 hours before landfall. With outer bands starting to encroach tomorrow afternoon and the center's approach not until Friday night, I seriously doubt that a target adjustment from Wilmington to Myrtle Beach will be possible should it become necessary.

 

[JamesCaruso]

@Warren Faidley thanks for the response but I am still unclear on the main question of exactly how you can get in these areas that are under mandatory evacuation? Even if you get there before the evacuation, are you allowed to stay as a non-resident? If you are trying to stay in a hotel, would you be allowed to remain there? Maybe nobody will find you in a parking garage, but if you try to reposition, assuming you could do so safely, wouldn’t law enforcement tell you to get your butt off the streets, or even arrest you if there is a curfew? Just trying to figure out how it works, knowing what a hassle it was dealing with law enforcement just to watch simple brush-by’s on the NJ coast with only minor flooding...

 

[Todd Lemery]

One of the last things on my bucket list is a hurricane. If I could look up at an eyewall and see a storm surge in person it would fill a big empty spot in my life that I’m dying to fill. I’m jealous of all the chasers who have been there and done that or are about to.
I’m not going to be one of the chasers getting to experience Florence though. My wife won’t let me. She’s fine with just about anything else, but is still putting her high heeled foot down when it comes to chasing hurricanes. It’s probably just as well because Florence doesn’t seem to be a good choice for a first timer. Good luck to everybody chasing this big girl!

 

[Dan Robinson]

@Warren Faidley thanks for the response but I am still unclear on the main question of exactly how you can get in these areas that are under mandatory evacuation?

James, in my experience, I have never had issues getting into an evacuated zone on a hurricane chase. The police usually block off bridges and routes to barrier islands or other highest-risk areas, but there are typically not any other roadblocks or checkpoints to speak of. The police do patrol the area and may stop to see what you are up to. This is one time that looking like the stereotypical chaser (decked-out vehicle) helps to reassure authorities that you are not up to no good and that you probably know what you are doing. I have never been asked to leave by authorities during any of my chases (4 hurricanes and 2 TSs).

Once the storm really gets cranking, no one is out, even law enforcement.

 

[KenMcWatters]

IMO it's looking more and more likely to make a direct hit on Wilmington, NC. I'm sure riding it out in a parking garage there will be possible. Getting out after the storm will be the hard part. Be prepared to be stranded there, possibly for days.

 

[Warren Faidley]

@Warren Faidley thanks for the response but I am still unclear on the main question of exactly how you can get in these areas that are under mandatory evacuation? Even if you get there before the evacuation, are you allowed to stay as a non-resident? If you are trying to stay in a hotel, would you be allowed to remain there? Maybe nobody will find you in a parking garage, but if you try to reposition, assuming you could do so safely, wouldn’t law enforcement tell you to get your butt off the streets, or even arrest you if there is a curfew? Just trying to figure out how it works, knowing what a hassle it was dealing with law enforcement just to watch simple brush-by’s on the NJ coast with only minor flooding...

I'm also a licensed EMT / Tactical EMS / in the State of Arizona. When I chase I serve two functions now days. Journalist and volunteer EMS afterwards if needed. I have both State EMT and press credentials. Having said this, post 911 saw an increase in the way police handle emergency situations. I've run into some LEO and security guys that don't give a f*** and just want you gone. OK fine. I go into stealth mode. This usually involves parking my vehicle in a safe place and I move myself to a hidden location I can work from -- for 24-48 hours if needed. This has only happen a few times. Once all hell starts, I pop out like a gopher and go to work. It's not that I'm trying to be tricky, it can be a matter of life or death. If they kick you out right before the storm and you have to move inland, you are screwed. (I also have a last ditch inland location just in case). My years as a newspaper journalist made me an expert at getting into closed scenes.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Am I the only one here observing what appears to be major weakening of Florence? That was on my list of concerns.

As of 00:00:30Z the IR satellite shows the eye almost completely detached (open) from the core.

 

[Warren Faidley]

IMO it's looking more and more likely to make a direct hit on Wilmington, NC. I'm sure riding it out in a parking garage there will be possible. Getting out after the storm will be the hard part. Be prepared to be stranded there, possibly for days.

NO. There are no above ground garages there according to everyone I asked. I also looked over Google earth and none of the usual buildings (hospitals, malls and hotels) have them. If you leave your vehicle in the open, it will likely be looted or float to Iceland.

Edit: I should also add that most garages fill up days before a major event from people storing extra cars and boats. In addition, most garages now seal / lock the garage down. Always carry bolt cutters.

 

[Matthew Sweeney]

Am I the only one here observing what appears to be major weakening of Florence? That was on my list of concerns.

As of 00:00:30Z the IR satellite shows the eye almost completely detached (open) from the core.

Some really weird dynamics over the past couple hours - Shortwave IR on GEOS-16 is really interesting.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Down to a Cat-2. Looks like the main show, or what is left of it, will hit tomorrow night. I am so glad I still have the 2k+ I would have spent on this chase. Sometimes you guess right. Of course there is a still an outside chance it could regenerate, but the NHC calls for substantial 24 kt shear for the next 6-12 hours.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Yeah, not that I was ever going to chase this anyway, but I no longer feel like I am missing anything. I think the surge will still be very severe, given the size of the storm and the time it has had to pile up water, especially given the shape of the coastline in spots down there; kind of like Sandy, which was barely Cat 1 and transitioning to extratropical but still had major surge. To me the surge is the most interesting and awe inspiring part of a hurricane, but it’s got to also be the hardest to safely see, and it sounds like there just aren’t any of the necessary structures on the coast needed for safe viewing. Next most interesting is the wind, but it seems like that is going to be fizzling out. Imagine going down there, staking out an inland location to stay safe from surge, and not even having the wind to experience anymore after all your trouble??? The other continuing threat is heavy rainfall, but to me that’s not particularly exciting or interesting and would only make it impossible to get back home.

 

[JamesCaruso]

If you’re into hurricanes you probably know about this site already, but Levi did a great job (as always) explaining the weakening trend in his presentation tonight (evening of 9/12), and this was a few hours before the 11pm NHC update.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[Warren Faidley]

The main surge appears to hit tomorrow night. Once the surface winds die down, it should be more of an eventual rise in flooding instead of the classic crashing surge. Glad for the residents as this may save many structures. Flooding will be the most deadly hazard now. Thanks for the link.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Buoy information:

http://www.capeweather.com/buoy-data-southeast.html