07L: Hurricane Gustav

[Jim Leonard]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica] Finally, this morning it appears that there is some development beginning to take place centered around 10N and about 50W. There is a large complex system taking shape in that area. Look for slow organization in that area as it moves WNW in the coming days. The ecmwf is still showing a big storm brewing from this disturbance. The past two model runs show a strange track from the SE Caribbean across Puerto Rico and Hispanola toward the NW into the Bahamas, we'll have to see if this scenario is picked up on the other models in the coming days.[/FONT]

 

[rdale]

Is this the same system last week?

http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=17742

 

[Warren Faidley]

Yea, the model runs are now very consistent with eventually upgrading this system to hurricane status and routing it to the south of Cuba by Wednesday of next week.

Look out!

Warren

 

[MClarkson]

I do not like the northerly shear progged by the GFS around the ~hispanolia/cuba. Hopefully it goes away.

 

[Paul Austin]

Is this the same system last week?

http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=17742

Yeah, I was completely wrong about the shear this system would encounter, but it's made a nice comeback.

 

[Mark Sudduth]

Looks like Euro off again for some reason. And GFS, nothing there either. But- we saw cat-5 Felix form in the face of little global model support. We shall see.

 

[Jesse V. Bass III]

euro is back today though... pretty good sized looking hurricane across cuba and up the east coast of florida just along the coast or just offshore then making landfall in georgia... been showing this every few runs or so... gfs, shows nothing.... does develop the wave coming off africa now.. but not 94L..

 

[Chris Hayes]

94L is looking better defined thisevening with outflow bands starting to appear on the southern fringe, and cloud tops cooling more and more. Wouldnt be surprised to see this be a depression tommorow if this continues.

 

[aaron.burkham]

Looking alot better organized! Really starting to take shape, i would call this a TD right now by the looks, does anybody have links to other current models besides NHC, because i would really like some more info and forcasts to track this storm, i have nothing else to do, even at work i spend more time tracking storms than i do doing my job

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

Really looking great!

 

[Jim Leonard]

The satellite presentation this morning shows a rapidly developing tropical storm. Im sure the report from the recon flight this afternoon will come back with at least a 50kt tropical storm Gustav.

 

[rdale]

does anybody have links to other current models besides NHC, because i would really like some more info and forcasts to track this storm

NHC is not a model... They are a group of forecasters who interpret the models and make a forecast. Weather Underground has a good blog for another mets' opinion, or you can look at the computer models for the automatic stuff.

 

[Von Castor]

There appears to be an eye forming on the latest sat. image. In my opinion Gustav has already formed and Jamaica better be on alert.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Just looking at the outflow, as well as the very cold cloudtops, that looks like a strong tropical storm to me. ECMWF, UKMET, and the good ole GFS are doing TERRIBLE with this storm. When looking at sea level pressures, the ECMWF is the only model that shows a storm, and it's hundreds of miles to the north. UKMET and GFS dont even know it's there. Be interesting to see what this does.

 

[Marc Austin]

There appears to be an eye forming on the latest sat. image. In my opinion Gustav has already formed and Jamaica better be on alert.

Yeah, I definitely see an "eye"-ish feature on vis sat as well. I would certainly say this is already a tropical storm, and most likely a strong one. This area is famous for rapid intensification. This is certainly one to watch for a rapid intensification cycle, especially given its current compact size. We may already be looking at a minimal hurricane and they've just now named it a tropical depression.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Visible satellite is showing a very interesting eye-like feature with TD#7. I am curious what recon will find myself.

The track is very interesting, possibly going between Cuba / crossing over where there are minimal mountains to disrupt it, as with Fay last week. 4-5 days out, NHC has it off the N coast of Cuba, aiming at FL ... Again.

The GFS, as many have already noted, did not even pick this thing up at all ... And the NHC system made a quote on the poor performance of the GFS.

After this track, by NHC for the next 3 days, it gets very uncertain, ranging from a tropical storm in the Bahamas, to a hurricane in the eastern GOM.