07/10/05 TALK: Major Hurricane Emily

[Gabe Garfield]

Originally posted by Mark Farnik
Good guess, Gabe. Only off by two millibars. I don't think your buddy you had the bet with will let you declare victory though.

LOL. I actually lost the bet because the person I was betting with went with 958 mb (my original guess, but I decided to go lower).

Emily looks very solid tonight, although I am concerned that the outflow to the west is being restricted by upper-level westerlies. In any event, this may not matter since Emily is taking a course that has a distinctive northerly component at this time (further away from shear). I think that further strengthening will be somewhat tempered by the less-than-ideal outflow in the western semi-circle. However, if this should improve, Emily could turn out to be quite a doozy.

Gabe

 

[Owen Shieh]

In response to Carrie's question:

The speed of a hurricane has nothing to do with water temperatures. It is purely driven by atmospheric motions. There isn't a particular reason why so far this season, the storms are moving faster. It's nothing special specifically for this year, because as long as a storm is trapped between two ridges, or two troughs, etc., it will stall out. I'm sure we will have a storm do that at some point.

Right now, Emily looks really really small. It's just a tiny little ferocious bomb. It's about as small as Andrew area-wise. For it to legitimately be compared to Gilbert, it's gotta pump up on size first.

 

[David Wolfson]

135 mph, 952mb, as of 2 a.m. EDT. Cat 4 :shock:

 

[Morgan Palmer]

1. The model consensus and NHC has noted has been slowly moving more northward. If she's a cat 3 or higher and comes to Texas, I'll be going for work. It'll give me a chance to redeem the raincheck I was given after Lili petered out.

2. The yahoos on the national news nets have been talking about the Yucatan peninsula weakening Emily. One must be aware that that part of the Yucatan is very flat. Weakening per mile (if one could prepare a scale) will only be a small fraction of weakening if the center passed over one of the more mountainous areas of the Caribbean or Central America.

I'm reminded of how the NHC termed Andrew in its postmortem: small, but "ferocious."

 

[Joe Nield]

I would be very worried if I lived on the central Texas coast right now. As others have pointed out, the ridiculously warm western Gulf should pose no obstacles to continued intensification or at least maintenance of major Hurricane Emily. I've been wondering if the ridge hanging out over the SE US would maintain long enough to keep Emily from making the turn northwestward, and, at least by the 00z GFS, it appears this won't be the case. It has Em "making the field goal" as someone put it, between the Yucatan and Cuba, and making a beeline for the central Texas coast. Law of averages, I guess, as it has been relatively quiet there for the last few years.

 

[MClarkson]

many of the models have shifted north to completely clear the yucatan.

the water near the TX gulf coast is above 30 degrees C. The GFS is progging almost 0 shear there in the ~5 day period.

its halfway through july and we are on our second cat 4, and looking at another possible major hurricane landfall in the US. amazing.

 

[Warren Eckels]

Franklin postponed by Emily

Some of the weather forecasters/presenters on cable were concerned on Tuesday that the tropical wave now along 49W between 4N and 16N would develop behind Emily. Fortunately 750 miles east of a developing tropical storm is not a good place to develop a circulation; the circulation disappeared on Wednesday.

The next candidate for Franklin is a new 1012 mb low near 44W and 16 N at 00Z. The low is moving NW through a band of 27C water. Its associated convection is impressive, with cloud tops temperatures of -70 C; too bad for the system that the convection is north of the low. Also unfortunately for this Franklin wannabe, the trough that is boosting Emily is moving west with Emily. Hopefully this will shut down the Atlantic for a few weeks -- an impressive wave with loads of convection is entering the eastern Atlantic.

Meanwhile Emily's southwest is starting to look a bit ragged; its wonderful symmetry is less so. Hopefully this presages a reduction in Emily's strength before it hits Jamaica.

 

[Jason Montano]

The NHC left the wind esitmates at 132mph for the 5am EDT update. Emily seems to be going thru an eyewall replacement cycle as her small eye, apparent last night, has diminished. She is still yet to take the forecasted turn to the N. The NHC comments that all models are in aggreance within a 60NMI spread on Emily's track, but also that the models, in aggreance 3 days ago too, are now 250nmi off current position. I suppose we will just have to wait and see if the ridge weakens.

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Emily way to far out

Just looking back over data for Emily and we have to remember where this thing started. 07/10/2005 - 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W with a track taking it to Miami. as of the 11 PM 07/11/2005 long range forecast.

As of this morning, the location is 13.9 N... 69.2 W with some speed picking up but still looks like a Mexico hit. Plus, if the eye is south of Bronsville Texas, what is between Brownsville and Corpus Christi? Kenedy County which is pretty much like Cherry County NE. One main road and a whole lot of Nothing.

I'm still calling for a a hit about 100 miles South of Brownsville TX which is deep into Mexico. Now would I chase it into Mexico? Doubt it. Rental car companies won't let me cross international boarders and still cover the insurnace.

 

[Joel Wright]

The models, which have all been pretty consistant with each other, have kept it too far north so far. By a few hundred miles. So if that trend continues it may indeed end up nailing old Mexico. Sometimes it's hard to predict when a big high pressure system will losen it's grip.

It will be interesting to see if, or how much Emily will recover after departing the Yucatan. After Gilbert left the Yucatan, it never really restrengthened again to the way it was before.

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Originally posted by Joel Wright
The models, which have all been pretty consistant with each other, have kept it too far north so far. By a few hundred miles. So if that trend continues it may indeed end up nailing old Mexico. Sometimes it's hard to predict when a big high pressure system will losen it's grip.

It will be interesting to see if, or how much Emily will recover after departing the Yucatan. After Gilbert left the Yucatan, it never really restrengthened again to the way it was before.

Totally agree with you Joel. I have been watching Emily to see if its going to be at all chaseable but I don't think its going to happen and if it does, it may be next weekend at the rate this thing is moving then slowing down.

As for all the models, you have to remember, the models did show this thing on Monday that it would be going to Miami by this weekend so you can't trust all the models. You can only get a general 300 mile area of where it may hit a few days out then adjust your position.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Re: Emily way to far out

Originally posted by Doug_Kiesling
Rental car companies won't let me cross international boarders and still cover the insurance.

Doug, I visited Mexico in 2000 by crossing at El Paso into "Juarez". There were sleazy-looking, pawn shop type stores in El Paso with big signs advertising Car Insurance for Mexican Trips (or something along those lines).

Just FYI.

Bob

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Re: Emily way to far out

Originally posted by Bob Schafer+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Bob Schafer)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Doug_Kiesling

Rental car companies won't let me cross international boarders and still cover the insurance.

Doug, I visited Mexico in 2000 by crossing at El Paso into "Juarez". There were sleazy-looking, pawn shop type stores in El Paso with big signs advertising Car Insurance for Mexican Trips (or something along those lines).

Just FYI.

Bob[/b]

Hmmm, that might be an option. Right now, the problem I see that if it hits south of the boarder, its going to hit pretty much nothing. And when I say nothing I mean just from looking at the maps, there is nothing down there. You have Kennedy County north of Brownsville which also has nothing, then the city of Brownsville then south of that looks like more ranch land

 

[Brandon Clement]

I posted this in weather and chasing but figured it would be relevent here too.

As long as I know she will hit in Tx 48 hours out and she is looking to be at least a cat. 3 then I will be there. It is about a 12 hour drive and I would not chase in that part of Mx under any circumstances so I have to be certain about landfall. Plus it is only July and it is starting too look like we can just wait a cople days for another major hurricane.

For anyone that is thinking about chasing this storm south of the border think again. You will not have to worry about the weather killing you because the people will get you first! Not the place I would like to get caught with a bunch of high end electronics, no police and a natural disaster about to occur. I have been to Metamoras, Mx and it is a very fun tourist attraction for about 5 miles south of the border, after that it is mostly made of slums with major problems.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Well, it appears that Emily is now being affected by shear in the SW Quadrant. Outflow appears to be somewhat restricted in this region of the storm. Because of this, I would expect a slight weakening in intensity at the 11 am advisory (probably mid Cat 3 range).

The good news (if you like strong storms) is that the environment is significantly better shear-wise to the west and northwest of Emily. I think this current letup in intensity will be brief, because it is likely that the negative effect of the shear is being enhanced by the replacement of the eyewall. Once the eyewall is replaced and shear begins to relax, I imagine that Emily will again pick up in intensity.

Gabe