07/10/05 TALK: Major Hurricane Emily

[Brandon Clement]

Looks like we are going to be looking at a 5 by the end of the day. The latest visible image is beautiful! You can actually see the stadium effect from the satellite. The outflow is not being restricted at all and there is nothing stopping her all the way to the Yucatan. It is starting to look like Emily could eventually be as strong as Mitch. I hope not because the damage would look like a 25 mile F-4 came buzzing through. I have been very impressed with the forecasting of this storm so far, it looks like the NHC just drew a staight line from Emily to Matamoras, Mx and she has stayed right down the middle of the official forecast for 3 days now. The wobbles that Emily has taken have been as small and quick as I ever remember seeing in a major hurricane.

 

[Justin Walker]

From NHC:

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 155 MPH...250
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 937 MB...27.66 INCHES.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Jim Leonard enroute to Cancun

I phoned Jim Leonard a couple hours ago and he was chomping at the bit at MIA waiting for a flight to Cancun...he probably should be arriving there now...As of the latest data..Emily is a borderline Cat 5, it may hit 160mph briefly but I anticipate the eye wall will begin recycling tonight or tomorrow which will likely diminish the storm to a high end Cat 3 or low end Cat 4 by land fall which unfortunately for Jim will happen during the predawn hours of Monday morning...onless it speeds up or signifigantly slows down...and I don't see that happening.

Anyway...lets hope and pray that Jim makes it back safe..and with some kick in the rear video.

 

[Owen Shieh]

Right now, closest point of approach and Kingston is reporting.....
5 kts sustained winds!!!!!!

Emily is ridiculously small, with such a tight wind field and pressure gradient that there is not much out beyond maybe 30-40 nm from the center. With a large, or average-sized 13 nm eye, there is not much area that will be getting high winds. Just think of this as a Charlie with a larger eye...or a 25 mile-wide tornado. The explosive recovering earlier this morning is indicative of BOTH things....the improved outflow and slightly less so, the higher oceanic heat content.

I say this with caution, because it is clear that the outflow is more important in this case. Ever since Emily entered the central Caribbean, the outflow has controlled its intensity. Waters have gotten increasingly warmer with time as she heads west, but why did she weaken abruptly to cat. 2 yesterday? Outflow. The upper low was cutting off exhaust out of the western semicircle, so even though waters were warm, Emily still weakened dramatically. Now, it has gotten stronger because as per my own streamline analysis from satellite water vapor derived winds, the upper-low has opened up into a weak trough in the Bay of Campeche. Outflow improved dramatically, hence the explosive strengthening this morning. Yes, of course high oceanic heat content has a part to play. However, it is my belief that that part is much smaller than upper-level winds. Scientifically, even measly 26 degree water can support a cat. 5 storm!! But if outflow is not favorable, the hurricane will still dissipate.

If you shove a sponge into your car exhaust pipe, no matter how much gas you put into your tank and how hard you step on the gas pedal, your car is going to die, let alone gain any speed.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

My landfall forecast is South of Corpus Christi, TX ~ I actually think that the the ridge that has kept Emily on a westly course will weaken as the hurricane move into the GOM and this will allow Emily to begin moving north.

 

[Owen Shieh]

Check out the RAMSDIS super rapid-scan visible imagery loop! With frames captured every 60 seconds, you can visually trace all the clouds flying around the eye!

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol...ol/RSOMAIN.HTML

Click on the visible link to the loop.

 

[MClarkson]

I wish I was there. In a boat. With a really solid hull.

 

[Scott Olson]

Thats awesome Owen. Also I expect Emily to make landfall tommorow night from 0z-03z. Man, the mm5 is pretty useless it's now forecasting Emily to turn straight north towards LA. (LOL)

 

[Brandon Clement]

Thanks Owen!! That is amazing.

Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2005 3:04 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I wish I was there. In a boat. With a really solid hull.

Yeah, I wonder when we will see the Hurricane attack boat on ebay claiming it is going to get in the eye of a developing tropical system and stay in there until landfall. Once they get to land they will get out of the boat and get in a Hurricane attack vehicle and stay in the eye until the storm dies. HMMM......bet I could get a ton of free publicity. Does anyone know where I can get a bunch of Fiberglass and a loan?

 

[Mark Farnik]

I just read the NHC 5 P.M discussion and was floored by this:
COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT...WHILE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL
INTENSITIES FROM COLA ARE CLOSER TO 135 KT.

That is insane! :shock: If Emily were to strengthen to 160 knots, she would have sustained winds of 184 mph with gusts well over 200. And if she does this (which is unlikely but not out of the question) she could beat out Gilbert for strongest Atlantic hurricane ,as well as give him a run for his money on central minimum pressure. Hopefully Emily will begin an eyewall replacement cycle before she hits the Yucatan; otherwise, Cozumel and Cancun could be looking at devastation on a scale of that wreaked by Gilbert. They had better start evacuating the locals now, since they already sent the tourists home. This could be very bad. Also, the weakeness in the high pressure ridge seems to be expanding. This may allow Emily to either just cross the tip or glance off the coastline and allow her to turn to the northwest and head straight for the south/middle Texas coastline.
A side note: Emily is not the only 155 mph storm in the world right now. Supetyphoon Haitang is as strong as Emily currently is slashing a path towards Taiwan and will make landfall within the next 24 hours. Strangely enough Haitang is also moving west-northwest, though as he appraoches Taiwan he is expected to turn northwest.
A little off topic but it's very peculiar that two tropical systems thousands of miles apart would have identical strength (135 kts) and direction of movement(W/NW.) Gives you a very weird feeling. :shock:

 

[Owen Shieh]

Well, as I understand it, Super Typhoon Haitang has a minimum pressure of 912 mb last time I checked! Emily is really nothing compared to Haitang because it is so much smaller. It's hard to compare on satellite, but to give some perspective, Taiwan is not much smaller in land area than the Florida peninsula (minus the panhandle). So......Haitang is HUGE compared to Emily. 30+ foot waves are expected on Taiwan's eastern coast. Since my grandparents live in Taiwan, I will be keeping a REALLY close eye on that one as well as Emily. Good news is, Taiwan is really mountainous, so watch Haitang fall apart faster than you can imagine after landfall.

 

[Jeff Gammons]

Update - Cancun Mexico -
Currently we have Jim Edds in Cancun awaiting hurricane Emily. View
video and the report below. More update to come tomorrow from the area.

http://www.weathervine.com/hurricanes/emily/

Jeff Gammons

 

[Brandon Clement]

Update - Cancun Mexico -
Currently we have Jim Edds in Cancun awaiting hurricane Emily. View
video and the report below. More update to come tomorrow from the area.

I don't ever remember being so JEALOUS!! I would love to be able to chase this storm. I think he is going to be in for the ride of his life. I have been to Cancun and don't recall seeing any buildings I would feel safe in a Cat 5 with gust up to 200mph but what is safe in those conditions. I hope he found one and I will be watching closely.

EDIT: If I didn't have a business to run American is offering a round trip ticked from DFW to cancun leaving tom. morning and returning on the 20th for $441. Very Tempting. I wonder how the authorities react to chasers in Cancun.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Owen Shieh said:

Well, as I understand it, Super Typhoon Haitang has a minimum pressure of 912 mb last time I checked!

Wow... I didn't notice that when I was checking the stats on the storm. And apparently it is at 140 knots right now. So they even though they are the same breed and close in intensity, they are vastly different beasts. The identical w/nw heading is still creepy though. How often do you have two Cat 4/5 storms at the same time anywhere on the globe, much less moving the same direction? Owen, I hope your grandparents will be Ok. This is a very vicious storm, but living on an island like Taiwan that gets battered by typhoons so much, I'd imagine they already are in a shelter, set up to ride out Haitang.
Note: Emily's central pressure has fallen to 929 millibars, though they maintained the 155 mph sustained winds. Hurricane force winds now extend 60 miles out and tropical storm force winds extend 150 miles out, so her windfield is a little bigger than it was earlier today. I fully expect them to raise Emily to a Cat 5 at the 11 P.M. advisory with a minimum pressure between 923 and 926 millibars central pressure.

 

[MClarkson]

the pressure is up slightly according to the latest vortex report but there is an amazing 16 degree celcius temperature difference between eye and surroundings.

From what I remember of cancun there are some very solid looking hotels. I wouldnt want to chase there however since I dont speak spanish.

aiport metar stations on the northeast coast of the yucatan:

cozumel MMCZ .... the island off the coast

cancun MMUN about 30nm north of mmcz