Right now, closest point of approach and Kingston is reporting.....
5 kts sustained winds!!!!!!
Emily is ridiculously small, with such a tight wind field and pressure gradient that there is not much out beyond maybe 30-40 nm from the center. With a large, or average-sized 13 nm eye, there is not much area that will be getting high winds. Just think of this as a Charlie with a larger eye...or a 25 mile-wide tornado. The explosive recovering earlier this morning is indicative of BOTH things....the improved outflow and slightly less so, the higher oceanic heat content.
I say this with caution, because it is clear that the outflow is more important in this case. Ever since Emily entered the central Caribbean, the outflow has controlled its intensity. Waters have gotten increasingly warmer with time as she heads west, but why did she weaken abruptly to cat. 2 yesterday? Outflow. The upper low was cutting off exhaust out of the western semicircle, so even though waters were warm, Emily still weakened dramatically. Now, it has gotten stronger because as per my own streamline analysis from satellite water vapor derived winds, the upper-low has opened up into a weak trough in the Bay of Campeche. Outflow improved dramatically, hence the explosive strengthening this morning. Yes, of course high oceanic heat content has a part to play. However, it is my belief that that part is much smaller than upper-level winds. Scientifically, even measly 26 degree water can support a cat. 5 storm!! But if outflow is not favorable, the hurricane will still dissipate.
If you shove a sponge into your car exhaust pipe, no matter how much gas you put into your tank and how hard you step on the gas pedal, your car is going to die, let alone gain any speed.
