07/10/05 TALK: Major Hurricane Emily

[Ryan McGinnis]

Thought I'd start a thread on this, since the Navy seems to think this has a good chance of becoming Emily and the AF planes are planning on getting the first fix on it on Wednesday afternoon.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Geez, and it's not even mid-July yet... I find myself wondering what happens if we use up all 21 names for the season!

 

[Owen Shieh]

Yeah, this is ridiculous. The pattern is that of mid/late August. In fact, the "tropical wave" is already a surface low. The same goes for the other system behind it that just came off of Africa. They are already both lows that developed in the monsoon trough dangling a bit far north for this time of year. Check out the GFS run out to 4-5 days. Looks like we may have two more systems on our hands by the end of the week. But for now, the INVEST farther west has a better chance at developing.

 

[Joe Guerra]

Yeah, as much as i'd like to say it'll calm down soon, it sure as heck dosen't look like it, and I agree with Owen, that INVEST farther west is more likely to develop.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

The models right now all seem to think that this will be a hurricane in 96 to 120 hours, and be somewhere in the general vicinity of Puerto Rico at that time. Of course, they're usually wildly inaccurate out that far.

Also, I changed the subject to reflect the upgrade.

Here's a link to the spaghetti plots on this storm:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/p...ts/storm_05.gif

 

[Brett Adair]

This is nuts. I hope that this will not be another Gulf storm....my Alabama location has already taken 3 tropical cyclone hits and it's not even August yet. This may be Alabamas year instead of Florida.

 

[Scott Olson]

This is really shaping up to be another very active Hurricane Season. GFDL has this becoming a major Hurricane and impacting Puerto Rico. Of course this is far out and it's hard to believe intensity forecasts or exact tracks. But it seems fairly reasonable that it will become a Hurricane. Considering it's still early July and we just had a CAT 4. Heat Content is showing 80-120 and SST's are 29-30C in that area.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Model solutions vary significantly regarding the future of TD5. Official NHC track most resembles the GFDL, which brings Emily up to a strong Cat2 before making landfall along the coast of the Dominican Republic, though NHC more conservative about intensity: 70kts at 120hrs.

The mountainous terrain of Dominica is always helpful in weakening systems, and the GFDL model shows a 20mb pressure increase as the system crosses land; good news if we're looking at an eventual US impact.

 

[Owen Shieh]

GFDL was designed to be a "hot" model, so it'll almost always overestimate. There are some convective feedback issues, but we'll just have to see how things change in the next day. If the system remains shallow, it will continue west into the Caribbean. If it intensifies, then it's more likely it will impact Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola.

 

[Brett Adair]

GFDL was designed to be a "hot" model, so it'll almost always overestimate. There are some convective feedback issues, but we'll just have to see how things change in the next day. If the system remains shallow, it will continue west into the Caribbean. If it intensifies, then it's more likely it will impact Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola.

I agree. If this thing does trek into the Gulf with high pressure setting up over the TX Panhandle by that time, the TX Gulf Coastal region may get a storm finally. Especially with the storm HP over the Southern Canadian/Northern Ohio Valley areas.

 

[Dan Hawblitzel]

I agree. If this thing does trek into the Gulf with high pressure setting up over the TX Panhandle by that time, the TX Gulf Coastal region may get a storm finally. Especially with the storm HP over the Southern Canadian/Northern Ohio Valley areas.

If it were to do so, TX residents better be hoping for some mighty wicked shear at that time, with buoy 42002 reporting a SST of 90 F in the western Gulf.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Seeing that 90F SST made me laugh "evily" for an extended period of time. :twisted:

Aaron

 

[Joe Guerra]

Well, is official, tropical depression 5's winds have increased, so we now have TS Emily. Its still got a bit to go, being still to the east of the Lesser Antillies, but lets hope it STAYS AWAY FROM THE US!

 

[MClarkson]

well the track looks pretty good for another potential US landfall.

Intensity... too far out to begin to guess.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

It's going to be interesting how this one moves through the Caribbean given that it has significantly more latitude than Dennis had. If my information is correct, we won't get a recon flight in until late Wednesday at the earliest.

The GFDL was very bullish on this system yesterday and today than it is now, intensity wise, but you wonder how well the models are really going to handle a system when humans have been having a hard time finding out where the center really is... that is until this evening.

We'll all start talking about a Gulf storm, but the end game on Emily is her interaction with the Greater Antilles/Cuba. She'll probably come in at a flatter angle than Dennis (guidance clustered tonight) at an angle equal to the alignment of the greater Antilles. If she misses it north or south (my gut is north) then whoa, nellie. If she lines up with those land masses, she'll be beaten with an ugly stick.

mp