07/10/05 TALK: Major Hurricane Emily

Thought I'd start a thread on this, since the Navy seems to think this has a good chance of becoming Emily and the AF planes are planning on getting the first fix on it on Wednesday afternoon.
 
Geez, and it's not even mid-July yet... I find myself wondering what happens if we use up all 21 names for the season!
 
Yeah, this is ridiculous. The pattern is that of mid/late August. In fact, the "tropical wave" is already a surface low. The same goes for the other system behind it that just came off of Africa. They are already both lows that developed in the monsoon trough dangling a bit far north for this time of year. Check out the GFS run out to 4-5 days. Looks like we may have two more systems on our hands by the end of the week. But for now, the INVEST farther west has a better chance at developing.
 
Yeah, as much as i'd like to say it'll calm down soon, it sure as heck dosen't look like it, and I agree with Owen, that INVEST farther west is more likely to develop.
 
This is nuts. I hope that this will not be another Gulf storm....my Alabama location has already taken 3 tropical cyclone hits and it's not even August yet. This may be Alabamas year instead of Florida.
 
This is really shaping up to be another very active Hurricane Season. GFDL has this becoming a major Hurricane and impacting Puerto Rico. Of course this is far out and it's hard to believe intensity forecasts or exact tracks. But it seems fairly reasonable that it will become a Hurricane. Considering it's still early July and we just had a CAT 4. Heat Content is showing 80-120 and SST's are 29-30C in that area.
 
Model solutions vary significantly regarding the future of TD5. Official NHC track most resembles the GFDL, which brings Emily up to a strong Cat2 before making landfall along the coast of the Dominican Republic, though NHC more conservative about intensity: 70kts at 120hrs.

The mountainous terrain of Dominica is always helpful in weakening systems, and the GFDL model shows a 20mb pressure increase as the system crosses land; good news if we're looking at an eventual US impact.
 
GFDL was designed to be a "hot" model, so it'll almost always overestimate. There are some convective feedback issues, but we'll just have to see how things change in the next day. If the system remains shallow, it will continue west into the Caribbean. If it intensifies, then it's more likely it will impact Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola.
 
GFDL was designed to be a "hot" model, so it'll almost always overestimate. There are some convective feedback issues, but we'll just have to see how things change in the next day. If the system remains shallow, it will continue west into the Caribbean. If it intensifies, then it's more likely it will impact Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola.

I agree. If this thing does trek into the Gulf with high pressure setting up over the TX Panhandle by that time, the TX Gulf Coastal region may get a storm finally. Especially with the storm HP over the Southern Canadian/Northern Ohio Valley areas.
 
I agree. If this thing does trek into the Gulf with high pressure setting up over the TX Panhandle by that time, the TX Gulf Coastal region may get a storm finally. Especially with the storm HP over the Southern Canadian/Northern Ohio Valley areas.

If it were to do so, TX residents better be hoping for some mighty wicked shear at that time, with buoy 42002 reporting a SST of 90 F in the western Gulf.
 
Well, is official, tropical depression 5's winds have increased, so we now have TS Emily. Its still got a bit to go, being still to the east of the Lesser Antillies, but lets hope it STAYS AWAY FROM THE US!
 
It's going to be interesting how this one moves through the Caribbean given that it has significantly more latitude than Dennis had. If my information is correct, we won't get a recon flight in until late Wednesday at the earliest.

The GFDL was very bullish on this system yesterday and today than it is now, intensity wise, but you wonder how well the models are really going to handle a system when humans have been having a hard time finding out where the center really is... that is until this evening.

We'll all start talking about a Gulf storm, but the end game on Emily is her interaction with the Greater Antilles/Cuba. She'll probably come in at a flatter angle than Dennis (guidance clustered tonight) at an angle equal to the alignment of the greater Antilles. If she misses it north or south (my gut is north) then whoa, nellie. If she lines up with those land masses, she'll be beaten with an ugly stick.

mp
 
Morgan brings up a good point. How can we trust the models if humans can't find a center? Right now, all hurricane models are ingesting data and incorporating into a FAKE vortex. They make up an imaginary vortex to place in the models, so naturally, the model accuracy degrades with time. New research is being done on developing better models that can actually incorporate a real vortex that is different and specific for each hurricane.
 
the synoptic pattern of the mid atlantic isnt going to change much based on a small error in locating the exact center of the TS... so the steering currents... and general forecast track... will still be accurate.
 
This is absolutely ridiculous. The tropics are open for business in a big way. I was just looking at the long range GFS and it hints at, among other things, Emily drifting westward, a bit south of Cuba and somewhat to the left of the official NHC track, our next TC perhaps forming and following a similar track to Emily, and several more disturbances moving off Africa. Something's going to have to change in a big way for this to not be a HUGE season.
 
I heard someone mention a little while ago that the gulf and carribean were 1-3 degrees above what they normally are at this time the year.

any idea why?
 
I heard someone mention a little while ago that the gulf and carribean were 1-3 degrees above what they normally are at this time the year.

any idea why?

CBS ran a story today outlieing a meteorlogical theory that this is some sort of 40 year cycle. Apparently the Pacific is cooler than normal this year, so the Atlantic warms to compensate.

Hoepfully someone here knows more about this theory, as I didn't really understand the meteorlogical underpinnings of the effect.
 
from the 0900z discussion

"global model's prediction of the formation of a rather strong
mid-tropospheric high over the southeastern U.S. Late in the
forecast period."

that would tend to suggest a clean miss to the south towards mexico... or another gulf cane.
 
The latest NHC update forecasts the track of Emily to be nearly identical to Dennis, passing just north of Jamaica and at day 5 located south of Cuba. The wind forecast is also pointing at Emily strengthening to a cat 3 with 115mph winds 72 hrs out. I don't see any reason for Emily to weaken if it dodges the island's out there, meaning it should enter the Gulf a Major Hurricane. Of course a long way off but could be interesting.
 
I don't see any reason for Emily to weaken if it dodges the island's out there, meaning it should enter the Gulf a Major Hurricane.

From my experience watching hurricanes, there are always plenty of ways storms can weaken beyond the 48+ hour forecast period (i.e. things that can't be easily forecast beyond a couple of days)... For example, smaller-scale cold eddies, dry air ingestion, etc. Given that the atmosphere over the Atlantic is very poorly sampled on the synoptic scale, there can certainly be smaller-scale wind maxima that increase shear, etc... All of those things aren't handled well at all by models a couple of days out, but they can definately squash strengthening or lead to weakening. What TS or depression was it last year that was in the southeastern Caribbean, forecast to become a major hurricane, yet died a quick death? This isn't exactly the case I don't think for Emily, but something to keep in mind.
 
Jeff I think that is Tropical Storm Earl. It became a Tropical Storm in the SE Caribean.

"Tropical Storm Earl took aim at the Windward Islands and was expected to grow into a hurricane as it spun across the Caribbean sea toward western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico."
Source: PlanetArk

Of course at 48 hours since being named it fizzled into a remnant low later to become Hurricane Frank.
 
Most all of the parameters are green for Emily becoming a major or catastropic storm in the Caribbean. TCHC (heat content) is quite high from 50W on, shear is low, venting is good, and it's being pulled right along in deep easterlies with nothing much on the northern horizon to get in the way. I'm curious to see how far north it tracks. The NOGAPS and GFS both seem to be expressing Emily straight into Yucatan.
 
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