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07/10/05 TALK: Major Hurricane Emily

As of the 5 P.M. AST advisory Emily is now a Category Three with sustained winds near 115 mph and increasing. The pressure is down to 968 millibars and continues to drop. She is really hauling as she is maintaining her w/nw heading at a clip of 21 mph. Looking back through the TPC archives, Emily's track thus far and forecasted track look eerily parallel to the track of Gilbert in September of 1988. Everything, the projected near miss just south of Jamaica, the projected landfall near Cozumel, re-emergence over the Bay of Campeche and second landfall in northeast Mexico is very much deja vu. Go to the TPC archives and compare Gilbert's track to Emily's forecasted path and you will see what I mean. Gilbert was a three when he passed south of Jamaica, and THEN he rapidly intensified to his Cat 5, 888 millibar 200 mph self before he slammed into Cozumel.
Hopefully Emily will not be as violent as Gilbert was;though if this strengthening trend continues, she has nothing to stop her, and with the waters of the Caribbean being more like mid-September like as far as SST's go, she could possibly go Cat 5 before she hits the Yucatan. :shock:
Hopefully that is where she's going, because if some of the latest model trends verify, an extremely dangerous Emily might be set on a course for a nasty rendezvous with the Galveston/Brownsville area come this time next week. With typical hurricane climatology already out the window this season, almost anything is possible. Anyway you look at it, it's as grim a situation if it smashes into Mexico as if it hits south Texas. Gilbert killed over 200 people in the Yucatan, and Emily could easily do the same this weekend. Emily could be a reprise of Gilbert, except 2 months earlier in the season. This is a serious situation and could get really interesting early next week, folks. Don't touch that dial and stay tuned to the Stormtrack Forums Hurricane Emily Discussion! :wink:
 
Hurricane Emily has decided not to care about the apparent westerly shear over the northern part of S. America. It is obviously beginning a period of rapid deepening, and I would expect this trend to continue into the night. I'm betting on a 955 mb pressure at the 11 pm advisory (I've got a bet w/ a friend--just posting it to a public forum for all to see :p).

Seriously, though, this thing is rapidly organizing, and I definitely am putting more stock in the GFDL (which performed remarkably well with Dennis). Cat 4. at some point appears very likely.

Gabe
 
Wow the model consensus on a track is really split right now. With the GFDL and 18z GFS putting Emily towards Texas. The UKMET is also pretty much aiming for the TX-MEXICO line. While The BAMM, MM5 Supercomputer and the NOGAPS (Best track performer so far) favor the southern solution. But even the NOGAPS 18z run seemed to be farther north. NHC seems to be splitting it down the middle. Im a little disappointed at some of the visually estimated surface winds as they have generally been lower than I would expect (25,45,55kts). That tells me that the CAT 2-3 winds are confined to a very small area such as Dennis that they cannot visually observe.
 
Well it's now 962mb. Latest vortex indicates surface winds of 104mph and Dvorak intensity estimates of 100mph. NHC has it offically at 115mph which is somewhat reasonable based on the growth we have seen each hour and the pressure. The eye has become a little obsecured the last half-hour or so but don't expect that to become a trend.
 
Looking at the latest GOES Storm Floater Water Vapor loop, Emily's circulation appears to be enlarging in diameter rather quickly. The eye is very solid but slightly obscured by clouds at this point, and the only issue I notice right now is outflow has become somewhat constricted on the west and southwest side of the storm, though it does not seem to be adversely affecting her. The 8 p.m. advisory has her still at 115 mph but pressure has dropped 6 millibars to 962. Gabe, I'm betting you will win your wager or at least be within two millibars of a win. The NHC has also leveled off intensity at 135 mph after 24 hours, which shows that even they have great uncertainty in what intensity this storm may attain. I repeat what I said earlier; Emily could possibly go Cat 5. At this point it looks like the majority of the circulation will not cross land until she hits the Yucatan, and between her and Cozumel is a lot of open, hot water with a very favorable shear environment for further, possibly rapid intensification. If Dennis had veered west and avoided so closely paralleling the Cuban coastline and then crossing mountainous central Cuba, he might have reached Cat 5 but he didn't.
Emily has an even more favorable environment ahead of her and unless she makes a northwesterly jaunt and passes directly over Jamaica(which isn't hard for a well organized circulation like Emily to recover from) she will most likely be very near Cat 5 status in 24 to 36 hours and possibly above that threshold in 48 to 72 hours if she stays away from Jamaica and no unexpected shear develops. Of course this is allowing for eyewall replacement cycles (which she will probably undergo fairly soon). Cat 5's aren't that uncommon, especially in an active season, but one in mid July would just be plain ridiculous.... :shock:
July 14th and we're already 5 names down the list with two of them major hurricanes . Who would have figured this was brewing? If this is July (and I know that this has been being beat to death since Dennis formed) what is the "peak" going to be like? :? A line of major hurricanes strung across the central Atlantic like a deadly string of pearls two months from today? :? A singular massive Cat 5 (think Mitch) smashing into New Orleans and turning most of southeast Louisiana into a debris strewn 20 foot deep swamp? :? :shock: A suprise Cat 3/4 storm that races up the Eastern Seaboard, channelling the spirits of the 1938 Long Island Express, Carol, Edna and Hazel? :? Or an unexpected lull in activity? :? Who knows. All we can do is speculate at this point. We have no control over what will happen from now until December; it's in the hands of the master.
 
Originally posted by Ryan McGinnis
Looks like the models are shifting in a somewhat disturbing trend, if you live in Texas:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...0505_model.html

Of course, if you're on vacation in the Yucatan, this is a welcome trend!

I am watching this with great anticipation. I have always wanted to experience a 'cane, but not necessarily the 'dirty side'. I have been asked why she is not forecasted to turn N, but some models are showing hints of this now.
She looks quite healthy, and a concern to all on the Texas coast.
I am wondering, why are the storms moving so fast this year? Don't take this wrong, it is a good thing for those in harm's way, but it just seems that they are cruising awful fast so far this season. Dennis never slowed down until landfall, while other hurricanes like to slow up before hitting land...is this caused by the warmer waters this year?
 
Hey dudes,
I just checked the 11 P.M. AST Advisory on Emily;winds have increased to 125 mph, but the pressure is at 957 MILLIBARS!
Hah! Didn't I say a couple hours ago that it would be within two millibars either side of 955! :D Good guess, Gabe. Only off by two millibars. I don't think your buddy you had the bet with will let you declare victory though. :D
:wink:
NHC is now forecasting Emily to become a Cat 4 in 12 to 24 hours. They still maintain the speed at 135 after 24 hours because, as I stated in my last post, they just really have no idea at this time how much of a beast Emily will be.
Also, the NHC track has shifted significantly to the north after 48 hours. Almost all the models are pointing straight at a far northeastern Mexico/ south Texas landfall. :shock: At this time my best guess for landfall would be between Puerto el Mezquital, Mexico (about 100 miles south of the border on a barrier island) and Corpus Christi, Texas, possibly as far north as Port Lavaca but that is highly unlikely. They are still going with a track on the left side of the guidance envelope, but this may shift further north as we go through the weekend.
If I lived in Brownsville/McAllen or Corpus Christi, I would begin stocking up supplies and making plans to leave town on Monday or Tuesday as it looks like Emily will be knocking on their door on Wednesday and coming in whether she's wanted or not. She's going to be a ferocious gal when she comes to visit so their needs to be some evacuation/stockup intitiation. Because even if she does nail Mexico rather than the U.S., better overprepared than underprepared.
 
The current forecasted path of Emily looks VERY similar to Hurricane Gilbert back in 1988. The projected intensities also look very similar to Gilbert.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198808.asp

In my opinion, this storm has a good chance of intensifying well beyond the NHC's prediction. If it misses the Yucatan and moves more northward, this storm would prove to be a major threat to the Gulf Coast. However, I'm going to hold my breath and wait to see if it pulls a Gilbert instead.
 
Originally posted by Mark Farnik
Good guess, Gabe. Only off by two millibars. I don't think your buddy you had the bet with will let you declare victory though.

LOL. I actually lost the bet because the person I was betting with went with 958 mb (my original guess, but I decided to go lower). :p

Emily looks very solid tonight, although I am concerned that the outflow to the west is being restricted by upper-level westerlies. In any event, this may not matter since Emily is taking a course that has a distinctive northerly component at this time (further away from shear). I think that further strengthening will be somewhat tempered by the less-than-ideal outflow in the western semi-circle. However, if this should improve, Emily could turn out to be quite a doozy.

Gabe
 
In response to Carrie's question:

The speed of a hurricane has nothing to do with water temperatures. It is purely driven by atmospheric motions. There isn't a particular reason why so far this season, the storms are moving faster. It's nothing special specifically for this year, because as long as a storm is trapped between two ridges, or two troughs, etc., it will stall out. I'm sure we will have a storm do that at some point.

Right now, Emily looks really really small. It's just a tiny little ferocious bomb. It's about as small as Andrew area-wise. For it to legitimately be compared to Gilbert, it's gotta pump up on size first.
 
1. The model consensus and NHC has noted has been slowly moving more northward. If she's a cat 3 or higher and comes to Texas, I'll be going for work. It'll give me a chance to redeem the raincheck I was given after Lili petered out.

2. The yahoos on the national news nets have been talking about the Yucatan peninsula weakening Emily. One must be aware that that part of the Yucatan is very flat. Weakening per mile (if one could prepare a scale) will only be a small fraction of weakening if the center passed over one of the more mountainous areas of the Caribbean or Central America.

I'm reminded of how the NHC termed Andrew in its postmortem: small, but "ferocious."
 
I would be very worried if I lived on the central Texas coast right now. As others have pointed out, the ridiculously warm western Gulf should pose no obstacles to continued intensification or at least maintenance of major Hurricane Emily. I've been wondering if the ridge hanging out over the SE US would maintain long enough to keep Emily from making the turn northwestward, and, at least by the 00z GFS, it appears this won't be the case. It has Em "making the field goal" as someone put it, between the Yucatan and Cuba, and making a beeline for the central Texas coast. Law of averages, I guess, as it has been relatively quiet there for the last few years.
 
many of the models have shifted north to completely clear the yucatan.

the water near the TX gulf coast is above 30 degrees C. The GFS is progging almost 0 shear there in the ~5 day period.

its halfway through july and we are on our second cat 4, and looking at another possible major hurricane landfall in the US. amazing.
 
Franklin postponed by Emily

Some of the weather forecasters/presenters on cable were concerned on Tuesday that the tropical wave now along 49W between 4N and 16N would develop behind Emily. Fortunately 750 miles east of a developing tropical storm is not a good place to develop a circulation; the circulation disappeared on Wednesday.

The next candidate for Franklin is a new 1012 mb low near 44W and 16 N at 00Z. The low is moving NW through a band of 27C water. Its associated convection is impressive, with cloud tops temperatures of -70 C; too bad for the system that the convection is north of the low. Also unfortunately for this Franklin wannabe, the trough that is boosting Emily is moving west with Emily. Hopefully this will shut down the Atlantic for a few weeks -- an impressive wave with loads of convection is entering the eastern Atlantic.

Meanwhile Emily's southwest is starting to look a bit ragged; its wonderful symmetry is less so. Hopefully this presages a reduction in Emily's strength before it hits Jamaica.
 
The NHC left the wind esitmates at 132mph for the 5am EDT update. Emily seems to be going thru an eyewall replacement cycle as her small eye, apparent last night, has diminished. She is still yet to take the forecasted turn to the N. The NHC comments that all models are in aggreance within a 60NMI spread on Emily's track, but also that the models, in aggreance 3 days ago too, are now 250nmi off current position. I suppose we will just have to wait and see if the ridge weakens.
 
Emily way to far out

Just looking back over data for Emily and we have to remember where this thing started. 07/10/2005 - 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W with a track taking it to Miami. as of the 11 PM 07/11/2005 long range forecast.

As of this morning, the location is 13.9 N... 69.2 W with some speed picking up but still looks like a Mexico hit. Plus, if the eye is south of Bronsville Texas, what is between Brownsville and Corpus Christi? Kenedy County which is pretty much like Cherry County NE. One main road and a whole lot of Nothing.

I'm still calling for a a hit about 100 miles South of Brownsville TX which is deep into Mexico. Now would I chase it into Mexico? Doubt it. Rental car companies won't let me cross international boarders and still cover the insurnace.
 
The models, which have all been pretty consistant with each other, have kept it too far north so far. By a few hundred miles. So if that trend continues it may indeed end up nailing old Mexico. Sometimes it's hard to predict when a big high pressure system will losen it's grip.

It will be interesting to see if, or how much Emily will recover after departing the Yucatan. After Gilbert left the Yucatan, it never really restrengthened again to the way it was before.
 
Originally posted by Joel Wright
The models, which have all been pretty consistant with each other, have kept it too far north so far. By a few hundred miles. So if that trend continues it may indeed end up nailing old Mexico. Sometimes it's hard to predict when a big high pressure system will losen it's grip.

It will be interesting to see if, or how much Emily will recover after departing the Yucatan. After Gilbert left the Yucatan, it never really restrengthened again to the way it was before.

Totally agree with you Joel. I have been watching Emily to see if its going to be at all chaseable but I don't think its going to happen and if it does, it may be next weekend at the rate this thing is moving then slowing down.

As for all the models, you have to remember, the models did show this thing on Monday that it would be going to Miami by this weekend so you can't trust all the models. You can only get a general 300 mile area of where it may hit a few days out then adjust your position.
 
Re: Emily way to far out

Originally posted by Doug_Kiesling
Rental car companies won't let me cross international boarders and still cover the insurance.

Doug, I visited Mexico in 2000 by crossing at El Paso into "Juarez". There were sleazy-looking, pawn shop type stores in El Paso with big signs advertising Car Insurance for Mexican Trips (or something along those lines).

Just FYI.

Bob
 
Re: Emily way to far out

Originally posted by Bob Schafer+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Bob Schafer)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-Doug_Kiesling
Rental car companies won't let me cross international boarders and still cover the insurance.

Doug, I visited Mexico in 2000 by crossing at El Paso into "Juarez". There were sleazy-looking, pawn shop type stores in El Paso with big signs advertising Car Insurance for Mexican Trips (or something along those lines).

Just FYI.

Bob[/b]

Hmmm, that might be an option. Right now, the problem I see that if it hits south of the boarder, its going to hit pretty much nothing. And when I say nothing I mean just from looking at the maps, there is nothing down there. You have Kennedy County north of Brownsville which also has nothing, then the city of Brownsville then south of that looks like more ranch land
 
I posted this in weather and chasing but figured it would be relevent here too.

As long as I know she will hit in Tx 48 hours out and she is looking to be at least a cat. 3 then I will be there. It is about a 12 hour drive and I would not chase in that part of Mx under any circumstances so I have to be certain about landfall. Plus it is only July and it is starting too look like we can just wait a cople days for another major hurricane.

For anyone that is thinking about chasing this storm south of the border think again. You will not have to worry about the weather killing you because the people will get you first! Not the place I would like to get caught with a bunch of high end electronics, no police and a natural disaster about to occur. I have been to Metamoras, Mx and it is a very fun tourist attraction for about 5 miles south of the border, after that it is mostly made of slums with major problems.
 
Well, it appears that Emily is now being affected by shear in the SW Quadrant. Outflow appears to be somewhat restricted in this region of the storm. Because of this, I would expect a slight weakening in intensity at the 11 am advisory (probably mid Cat 3 range).

The good news (if you like strong storms) is that the environment is significantly better shear-wise to the west and northwest of Emily. I think this current letup in intensity will be brief, because it is likely that the negative effect of the shear is being enhanced by the replacement of the eyewall. Once the eyewall is replaced and shear begins to relax, I imagine that Emily will again pick up in intensity.

Gabe
 
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