07/10/05 TALK: Major Hurricane Emily

[Owen Shieh]

Morgan brings up a good point. How can we trust the models if humans can't find a center? Right now, all hurricane models are ingesting data and incorporating into a FAKE vortex. They make up an imaginary vortex to place in the models, so naturally, the model accuracy degrades with time. New research is being done on developing better models that can actually incorporate a real vortex that is different and specific for each hurricane.

 

[MClarkson]

the synoptic pattern of the mid atlantic isnt going to change much based on a small error in locating the exact center of the TS... so the steering currents... and general forecast track... will still be accurate.

 

[Joe Nield]

This is absolutely ridiculous. The tropics are open for business in a big way. I was just looking at the long range GFS and it hints at, among other things, Emily drifting westward, a bit south of Cuba and somewhat to the left of the official NHC track, our next TC perhaps forming and following a similar track to Emily, and several more disturbances moving off Africa. Something's going to have to change in a big way for this to not be a HUGE season.

 

[MClarkson]

I heard someone mention a little while ago that the gulf and carribean were 1-3 degrees above what they normally are at this time the year.

any idea why?

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

I heard someone mention a little while ago that the gulf and carribean were 1-3 degrees above what they normally are at this time the year.

any idea why?

CBS ran a story today outlieing a meteorlogical theory that this is some sort of 40 year cycle. Apparently the Pacific is cooler than normal this year, so the Atlantic warms to compensate.

Hoepfully someone here knows more about this theory, as I didn't really understand the meteorlogical underpinnings of the effect.

 

[MClarkson]

from the 0900z discussion

"global model's prediction of the formation of a rather strong
mid-tropospheric high over the southeastern U.S. Late in the
forecast period."

that would tend to suggest a clean miss to the south towards mexico... or another gulf cane.

 

[Jason Montano]

The latest NHC update forecasts the track of Emily to be nearly identical to Dennis, passing just north of Jamaica and at day 5 located south of Cuba. The wind forecast is also pointing at Emily strengthening to a cat 3 with 115mph winds 72 hrs out. I don't see any reason for Emily to weaken if it dodges the island's out there, meaning it should enter the Gulf a Major Hurricane. Of course a long way off but could be interesting.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I don't see any reason for Emily to weaken if it dodges the island's out there, meaning it should enter the Gulf a Major Hurricane.

From my experience watching hurricanes, there are always plenty of ways storms can weaken beyond the 48+ hour forecast period (i.e. things that can't be easily forecast beyond a couple of days)... For example, smaller-scale cold eddies, dry air ingestion, etc. Given that the atmosphere over the Atlantic is very poorly sampled on the synoptic scale, there can certainly be smaller-scale wind maxima that increase shear, etc... All of those things aren't handled well at all by models a couple of days out, but they can definately squash strengthening or lead to weakening. What TS or depression was it last year that was in the southeastern Caribbean, forecast to become a major hurricane, yet died a quick death? This isn't exactly the case I don't think for Emily, but something to keep in mind.

 

[Scott Olson]

Jeff I think that is Tropical Storm Earl. It became a Tropical Storm in the SE Caribean.

"Tropical Storm Earl took aim at the Windward Islands and was expected to grow into a hurricane as it spun across the Caribbean sea toward western Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico."
Source: PlanetArk

Of course at 48 hours since being named it fizzled into a remnant low later to become Hurricane Frank.

 

[David Wolfson]

Most all of the parameters are green for Emily becoming a major or catastropic storm in the Caribbean. TCHC (heat content) is quite high from 50W on, shear is low, venting is good, and it's being pulled right along in deep easterlies with nothing much on the northern horizon to get in the way. I'm curious to see how far north it tracks. The NOGAPS and GFS both seem to be expressing Emily straight into Yucatan.

 

[Ben Cotton]

Not that this necessarily means anything for Emily, but I found this climatology info to be interesting...

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/a...00505_climo.gif

This might give the Gulf coasties a sigh of relief...and it supports the original path I had guessed, which would involve a Carolina landfall...although now Mexico or southern Texas appears much more likely.


Ben

 

[Brandon Clement]

Emily is up to 50 mph and is forecasted to take a very familiar track between Cuba and Jamaica eventually making landfall in Cuba. Lets see how this pans out. So far it looks like it is making a Bee line for Tx, but that is a looong way out. Looks like I might not have to unpack my gear.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

So far it looks like it is making a Bee line for Tx

If the ridge over the southeast US in a few days is as potent as the GFS is advertising than Florida should be spared from this one. Corpus and Brownsville NWS discussions already acknowledge the potential for western Gulf storm. Another run or two of the models should give us a better idea of where this storm is headed... now that the system has developed further and the models have this spun up. As of now, model tracks are clustered pretty tightly. Will be interesting to see if this can make the field goal between Cuba and the Yucatan. Ivan bounced off the right post but the kick was good for Pensacola.

Note: A hit on Houston would be disasterous for the oil supply. Oil prices up $2.23 to $61+ on speculation Emily will cause a raucus in the Gulf.

 

[MClarkson]

"WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER"

from the latest discussion

you just gotta laugh at that.

 

[Owen Shieh]

Yeah...let's just throw common sense and why not climatology as well (as NHC put it) out the window this year. The Atlantic is just going to break loose. There's no stopping it!!

Well, I guess if Emily hits the Yucatan and then emerge into the Bay of Campeche, which it could very well do, the oil rigs in the Gulf would have a higher chance of being spared.