07/10/05 TALK: Major Hurricane Emily

Just a quick glance at satellite pics shows that an eye may be starting to form. Spirals and swirls are now easily defined from the GOES floater.
 
Looks like that jog to the north was just part of a wobble, as the last 2 or 3 frames (as of 1 pm central) of the goes 1 floater visible loop shows a slight southerly turn in her track again.
 
Hurricane Emily is similar to what Dennis looked like right before he blew up to 150mph in the gulf. Really well formed and intense but extremely small area of strong winds. Hopefully that changes. I'm starting to wonder if the smaller hurricanes strength changes quicker than larger storms. I don't ever recall a hurricane going from 100 mph to 150 mph and back in less than two days like Dennis did and I'm willing to bet Emily is up to 140 by this time tom. as long as she doesn't go too far south. Does anyone have any ideas on what determines the size of a hurricane?
 
Yes, a smaller, more compact hurricane is capable of more rapid intensity fluctuations. Charley, Dennis, and Andrew are all good examples. The smaller their circulation, to quicker they can blow up, and conversely, they tend to be more vulnerable to less than ideal environmental conditions, and the quicker than can spin down. The big, fat, cumbersome ones like Floyd and Frances don't spin down as quickly even when they're exposed to shear, restricted outflow, or land. The worst ones are like Mitch, very large, and very strong. At that point, they begin to create their own environment, and it takes more to kill them.
 
As of the 5 P.M. AST advisory Emily is now a Category Three with sustained winds near 115 mph and increasing. The pressure is down to 968 millibars and continues to drop. She is really hauling as she is maintaining her w/nw heading at a clip of 21 mph. Looking back through the TPC archives, Emily's track thus far and forecasted track look eerily parallel to the track of Gilbert in September of 1988. Everything, the projected near miss just south of Jamaica, the projected landfall near Cozumel, re-emergence over the Bay of Campeche and second landfall in northeast Mexico is very much deja vu. Go to the TPC archives and compare Gilbert's track to Emily's forecasted path and you will see what I mean. Gilbert was a three when he passed south of Jamaica, and THEN he rapidly intensified to his Cat 5, 888 millibar 200 mph self before he slammed into Cozumel.
Hopefully Emily will not be as violent as Gilbert was;though if this strengthening trend continues, she has nothing to stop her, and with the waters of the Caribbean being more like mid-September like as far as SST's go, she could possibly go Cat 5 before she hits the Yucatan. :shock:
Hopefully that is where she's going, because if some of the latest model trends verify, an extremely dangerous Emily might be set on a course for a nasty rendezvous with the Galveston/Brownsville area come this time next week. With typical hurricane climatology already out the window this season, almost anything is possible. Anyway you look at it, it's as grim a situation if it smashes into Mexico as if it hits south Texas. Gilbert killed over 200 people in the Yucatan, and Emily could easily do the same this weekend. Emily could be a reprise of Gilbert, except 2 months earlier in the season. This is a serious situation and could get really interesting early next week, folks. Don't touch that dial and stay tuned to the Stormtrack Forums Hurricane Emily Discussion! :wink:
 
Hurricane Emily has decided not to care about the apparent westerly shear over the northern part of S. America. It is obviously beginning a period of rapid deepening, and I would expect this trend to continue into the night. I'm betting on a 955 mb pressure at the 11 pm advisory (I've got a bet w/ a friend--just posting it to a public forum for all to see :p).

Seriously, though, this thing is rapidly organizing, and I definitely am putting more stock in the GFDL (which performed remarkably well with Dennis). Cat 4. at some point appears very likely.

Gabe
 
Wow the model consensus on a track is really split right now. With the GFDL and 18z GFS putting Emily towards Texas. The UKMET is also pretty much aiming for the TX-MEXICO line. While The BAMM, MM5 Supercomputer and the NOGAPS (Best track performer so far) favor the southern solution. But even the NOGAPS 18z run seemed to be farther north. NHC seems to be splitting it down the middle. Im a little disappointed at some of the visually estimated surface winds as they have generally been lower than I would expect (25,45,55kts). That tells me that the CAT 2-3 winds are confined to a very small area such as Dennis that they cannot visually observe.
 
Well it's now 962mb. Latest vortex indicates surface winds of 104mph and Dvorak intensity estimates of 100mph. NHC has it offically at 115mph which is somewhat reasonable based on the growth we have seen each hour and the pressure. The eye has become a little obsecured the last half-hour or so but don't expect that to become a trend.
 
Looking at the latest GOES Storm Floater Water Vapor loop, Emily's circulation appears to be enlarging in diameter rather quickly. The eye is very solid but slightly obscured by clouds at this point, and the only issue I notice right now is outflow has become somewhat constricted on the west and southwest side of the storm, though it does not seem to be adversely affecting her. The 8 p.m. advisory has her still at 115 mph but pressure has dropped 6 millibars to 962. Gabe, I'm betting you will win your wager or at least be within two millibars of a win. The NHC has also leveled off intensity at 135 mph after 24 hours, which shows that even they have great uncertainty in what intensity this storm may attain. I repeat what I said earlier; Emily could possibly go Cat 5. At this point it looks like the majority of the circulation will not cross land until she hits the Yucatan, and between her and Cozumel is a lot of open, hot water with a very favorable shear environment for further, possibly rapid intensification. If Dennis had veered west and avoided so closely paralleling the Cuban coastline and then crossing mountainous central Cuba, he might have reached Cat 5 but he didn't.
Emily has an even more favorable environment ahead of her and unless she makes a northwesterly jaunt and passes directly over Jamaica(which isn't hard for a well organized circulation like Emily to recover from) she will most likely be very near Cat 5 status in 24 to 36 hours and possibly above that threshold in 48 to 72 hours if she stays away from Jamaica and no unexpected shear develops. Of course this is allowing for eyewall replacement cycles (which she will probably undergo fairly soon). Cat 5's aren't that uncommon, especially in an active season, but one in mid July would just be plain ridiculous.... :shock:
July 14th and we're already 5 names down the list with two of them major hurricanes . Who would have figured this was brewing? If this is July (and I know that this has been being beat to death since Dennis formed) what is the "peak" going to be like? :? A line of major hurricanes strung across the central Atlantic like a deadly string of pearls two months from today? :? A singular massive Cat 5 (think Mitch) smashing into New Orleans and turning most of southeast Louisiana into a debris strewn 20 foot deep swamp? :? :shock: A suprise Cat 3/4 storm that races up the Eastern Seaboard, channelling the spirits of the 1938 Long Island Express, Carol, Edna and Hazel? :? Or an unexpected lull in activity? :? Who knows. All we can do is speculate at this point. We have no control over what will happen from now until December; it's in the hands of the master.
 
Originally posted by Ryan McGinnis
Looks like the models are shifting in a somewhat disturbing trend, if you live in Texas:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...0505_model.html

Of course, if you're on vacation in the Yucatan, this is a welcome trend!
Click to expand...

I am watching this with great anticipation. I have always wanted to experience a 'cane, but not necessarily the 'dirty side'. I have been asked why she is not forecasted to turn N, but some models are showing hints of this now.
She looks quite healthy, and a concern to all on the Texas coast.
I am wondering, why are the storms moving so fast this year? Don't take this wrong, it is a good thing for those in harm's way, but it just seems that they are cruising awful fast so far this season. Dennis never slowed down until landfall, while other hurricanes like to slow up before hitting land...is this caused by the warmer waters this year?
 
Hey dudes,
I just checked the 11 P.M. AST Advisory on Emily;winds have increased to 125 mph, but the pressure is at 957 MILLIBARS!
Hah! Didn't I say a couple hours ago that it would be within two millibars either side of 955! :D Good guess, Gabe. Only off by two millibars. I don't think your buddy you had the bet with will let you declare victory though. :D
:wink:
NHC is now forecasting Emily to become a Cat 4 in 12 to 24 hours. They still maintain the speed at 135 after 24 hours because, as I stated in my last post, they just really have no idea at this time how much of a beast Emily will be.
Also, the NHC track has shifted significantly to the north after 48 hours. Almost all the models are pointing straight at a far northeastern Mexico/ south Texas landfall. :shock: At this time my best guess for landfall would be between Puerto el Mezquital, Mexico (about 100 miles south of the border on a barrier island) and Corpus Christi, Texas, possibly as far north as Port Lavaca but that is highly unlikely. They are still going with a track on the left side of the guidance envelope, but this may shift further north as we go through the weekend.
If I lived in Brownsville/McAllen or Corpus Christi, I would begin stocking up supplies and making plans to leave town on Monday or Tuesday as it looks like Emily will be knocking on their door on Wednesday and coming in whether she's wanted or not. She's going to be a ferocious gal when she comes to visit so their needs to be some evacuation/stockup intitiation. Because even if she does nail Mexico rather than the U.S., better overprepared than underprepared.
 
The current forecasted path of Emily looks VERY similar to Hurricane Gilbert back in 1988. The projected intensities also look very similar to Gilbert.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198808.asp

In my opinion, this storm has a good chance of intensifying well beyond the NHC's prediction. If it misses the Yucatan and moves more northward, this storm would prove to be a major threat to the Gulf Coast. However, I'm going to hold my breath and wait to see if it pulls a Gilbert instead.
 
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