07/10/05 TALK: Major Hurricane Emily

[Scott Olson]

MClarkson, I had some trouble yesterday where it was giving me previous data. Im not sure if it is the NHC site or my computer being stupid. Im suprised the NHC is going with 135mph winds. The last vortex had winds and pressure that were in the middle CATEGORY 3 range. Dvorak intensity estimates also support CAT 3 factoring in weakening. Latest Vortex seems to indicate that over the course of an hour there was no weakening. So there still may be a chance Emily can strengthen in the next couple hours. But it clearly looks to me like a Category 3 storm ATTM. Looks like Tulum is going to be under the gun.


-Scotto.

TPCNOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 73 MPH WITH A GUST TO 85 MPH

Round to the nearest hurricane force! LOL

Edit: Deeper anaylsis of Dvorak shows that Emily contunties to weaken and will probably not have a chance to strengthen much as it is nearing land and shallower waters.

 

[Owen Shieh]

Also, it is interesting to note that lightning is currently prolific within the eyewall of Emily. This does not normally happen in a strong, organized cat. 4 hurricane. The presence of a lot of lightning would indicate more mixing between surface and upper-levels, showing that there is more updraft/downdraft vertical motion. This normally equates to either the storm is strengthening, weakening, or otherwise unstable. I doubt it is in the strengthening stage right now, since pressures continue to rise and the outer eyewall has yet to contract as previously indicated. The increased lightning activity was also present with Dennis...as it was rapidly weakening 30 minutes before landfall.

 

[Owen Shieh]

Wow, as of 11 pm, this must be the most ragged, asymmetrical, choked, cat. 4 hurricane I have ever seen. Too bad the surface stations have shut down in the Yucatan. All we have is the radar (with occasional "blips") and satellite to monitor landfall.

 

[Brandon Clement]

Going by the IR satelite images it looks like Emily's outflow has been slowed on the West and South sides. I thought maybe she had a quick cycle earlier but it now looks like she is going through the full cycle. Also like Dennis the strongest convection is on the west side of the eye. There is still a chance she could regain some power just before landfall because her convection really blew up on the last two frames on both IR and water vapor. Cancun's radar is terrible! Luckily for Cancun it looks like they will be spared since she is so small, the worse convection is on the west side and she just made a significant wobble to the WSW.

 

[MClarkson]

they have a report at ~0330 of 141 knots at flight level... still supporting cat 4 strength. as best as I can make out, this occured over or just south of the southern tip of cozumel island.

 

[Thomas Loades]

Emily's down to a cat. 2 now, with ca. 100-mph winds, and pressure at 975 mb. It's hard to tell if there's still a clear eye there, because if there is, it's right on the coast (which is kinda getting in the way). The NHC said she was a 4 at landfall, but then mentioned 115-kt (= 126 mph) winds, so I'm not sure there.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm really not sure how the NHC doesn't think hurricanes weaken so much while over land? I was surprised that they didn't weaken Dennis over Cuba as much as they did (and ended up significantly underforecasting the weakening from Cuba)... Same thing with Emily -- I think they only called for a decrease in intensity to like 95kt or something. This may have been possible if the hurricane was 140kts at landfall, but it wasn't... :roll:

Latest advisory from NHC stating 984mb central pressure and 75mph winds, with hurricane force winds extending to 60 miles from the center (now that's a very homogeneous wind field -- sustained winds must be 73-75mph from the eye outward to 60 miles LOL). Pretty good banding features still evident on satellite, but warm cloud tops near the center make the hurricane look like dung. SSTs are in the 29-30C range (away from the immediate north Yucatan coast) per http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm and http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/poes/SST/20...17%2E1616%2Egif ... Wind shear analysis from CIMSS at UWISC ( http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...inds/winds.html ) shows relatively low shear to the WNW of Emily, so a puff of strong convection near the center of Emily may have reintensify the storm given relatively low shear and warm SSTs.

 

[Geoff Boyle]

Just a question, what do you do you think the chances are that Emily will roar back to life and pass over into the pacific? How long could Emily sustain itself there with the present conditions?

 

[Ben Cotton]

I'd be very suprised to see that happening. Even if Mexico were flat, that'd be quite a challenge, but with the majority of the country being rather mountainous, I seriously doubt Emily would survive intact. Then again, maybe an Ivan-esque remnant redevelopment could happen. I'll let the more tropically-minded members discuss that.


Ben

 

[Owen Shieh]

I don't believe there is the slightest chance that it will survive into the Pacific. I'm already doubtful of cat. 3 strength upon landfall in NE Mexico, but it is certainly possible, given the nice banding structure of Emily at this time. I basically agree with NHC's forecast in the 5 pm advisory. But after landfall, the mountains in Mexico and Monterrey area will put the nail in the coffin of Emily. Low-level flow usually shifts to coming out of the south over Mexico. This is evident right now using Vis satellite. Low-level Cu are east to west throughout the Gulf, but it shifts dramatically to south to north over the continent. So most likely, Emily will weaken, dissipate, stall, then jog northward. Arizona/New Mexico/Texas will get nice moisture return and much-needed rain from this system.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Any word from Jim Edds yet? ~ I sure hope that he is ok.

 

[Dave Kaplow]

I agree Emily will never make it across to the Pacific. But as it happens, right now it looks like there's already another tropical storm forming off the west coast of Mexico. Is it possible for a Fujiwhara-type interaction to take place between two storms when there's an intervening landmass between them? Not that I think this is likely to happen, I'm just curious. I was looking at the current satellite animation showing the two storms lined up on either side of Mexico - very cool to look at.


Edit: the embryonic Pacific storm is now looking like it might not make it, on the last few passes it doesn't look as good as it did earlier.

 

[Owen Shieh]

Fujiwhara effect should only be possible with strong cyclones very close to each other and both of the same size, symmetry, and wind radii. I don't know too much about it, since it doesn't occur very often at all, but I doubt anything like that would happen, given that Mexico is so large, the systems weak, and mountains are disrupting the flow of air. Plus, a heat low that is present in the desert SW will add to disrupt things.

 

[Jim Tang]

Originally posted by Owen Shieh+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Owen Shieh)</div>

I don't believe there is the slightest chance that it will survive into the Pacific. [/b]

<!--QuoteBegin-Dave Kaplow
I agree Emily will never make it across to the Pacific.

Never say never. Hurricane Debby (1988) was only a Cat 1 when it made landfall in Mexico, yet it made it across, though it didn't last long in the EPAC.

 

[Justin Walker]

Emily is getting better organized tonight. Good outflow and is becoming more symmetric. Has explosive convection on the outer bands as well as around the eye. No signs of shear in the western gulf. I would expect to see significant strengthening overnight with the environment and 30 degree SST's. I still see landfall about 65 miles South of the border.