07/09/2007 NOW: WI/IL/MI/IN/NY/VT/ME

[MatthewCarman]

Things are getting active in MI with a line of storms in central MI capable of destructive 70+ winds and already some tornado warnings.

I did not add MT/WY/ND/SD/NE to the title because I was not sure if that is a different system but if the mods dont mind feel free to discuss the severe weather out west in this thread as well.

Anyone chasing right now?

 

[Derek Weston]

I see you're using FutureRad as well...

Just getting ready to take off in the DeLorean, going to intercept a few extremely strong cells in central Michigan. Wish me luck.

 

[nickgrillo]

Lower temperatures north of the boundary have yielded lower LCL heights in the northern half of the DTX CWA per RUC mesoanalysis; but the meager to nonexistent low-level SRH as a result of weak boundary layer flow throughout all of the warm sector should preclude much (if any) of a tornado risk. For that matter, the weak midlevel lapse rates should regulate hail potential even with sustained updrafts supported by the moderate mid-upper flow. On the other hand, downdraft CAPE is particularly high south of I-69 in southern MI, where strong surface diabatic heating has resulted in significant dewpoint depressions and nearly dry adiabatic low-level (0-3km AGL) lapse rates, supportive of damaging wind potential with any updrafts that can sustain themselves in the weak shear environment south of a Kent-Shiawassee-St. Clair Co. line.