07/05/05 -- TALK: Hurricane Dennis

[Justin Bailey]

dennis

I too am worried about dennis paralleling the florida peninsula with the strongest part of dennis being the eastern half. But my money's still on the pensicola area with dennis being a strong cat. 3. I really dont think it'll be much more that a weak cat. 4. until then all of our prayers need to be for everyone in central cuba as they're gonna be taking a direct hit soon.

Also in the last few satelite images it appears that dennis may be going through an eyewall replacement cycle which just may prevent it from strengthening any further before making landfall on cuba...lets hope anyways

 

[Jim Tang]

I have a feeling that Dennis will weaken substantially after impacting Cuba. The terrain in central Cuba is somewhat higher (not incredibly significant, though) than in western Cuba (where Charley crossed last year), so the hurricane's interaction with the land should be slightly more pronounced. No doubt Dennis will be a formidable hurricane in the Gulf, but I am thinking only a weak category 2 at landfall (100-200 miles north of Tampa is my guess). I could be wrong, but I really have the feeling this thing is going to bite it after interacting with Cuba. Positively considered, Dennis is moving quite quickly, so his interaction with Cuba might not be that significant.

Also, on a somewhat anecdotal note, I've noticed that hurricanes that are powerful Cat. 4 and Cat 5 hurricanes way out at sea get everyone's attention, and then they promptly die when getting within a few hundred miles of the coast. Then there are hurricanes like Charley that weren't much 36 hours before landfall, but favorable conditions allowed for rapid deepening and a big surprise. I think this hurricane will probably scare a lot of people, but will not do near as much to Florida as it will (and is doing) to Cuba.
Gabe

I agree that big, large storms way out at sea will weaken when approaching land, likely due to the shallower, cooler waters and the usual trough that increases wind shear and introduces some dry air. Look at Ivan, Cat 5 to 3. Similar thing with Allen in 1980 - big Cat 5 that weakened to Cat 3 right before landfall. It's hard to imagine that Lili in 2002 was a 145 mph Cat 4 just 12 hours before landfall. Frances was a Cat 4 at its peak, Cat 2 at landfall. Isabel was a Cat 5, but it choked and it made landfall as a weakening Cat 2. It seems that most times a strong 'cane hits the U.S. (look at Andrew, Audrey, Charley, Jeanne, 1935 Labor Day Hurricane) it's a small hurricane that rapidly intensifies right before landfall.

But then again, Donna, 1938 Long Island Express hurricane, and Hugo were hurricanes that remained strong.

Still, Dennis has its weaknesses that will likely be crucial near/at landfall. One is climatology does not support Dennis (after all, it's only July). Two is the dry air in the GoM, which right now is already impeding Dennis. In fact, Dennis looks like it will be downgraded to Cat 3 in the next advisory. Three is land, which is also helping the weakening of Dennis. And look, with the look of Dennis on satellite, it can't do well over the more mountainous terrain of central Cuba.

At this point, Dennis should not pull a Charley. The surface trough off the west coast of Florida and the mid-upper ridge over the state should act as a mild buffer. If it does turn, I would be very surprised. However, paralleling the coast is a different story.....it could possibly happen if the trough is aligned NNW-SSE in that direction. We'll have to see after analyzing surface obs in the morning.

There is a possiblity that a trough could temporarily strengthen a hurricane by enhancing outflow. Look at Charley and the 2005 Karl. Both storms strengthened as the trough enhanced outflow right before they weakened as the trough increased wind shear (or in Charley's case, land). However, I still think Dennis will not be a major hurricane because of the negative land interaction with Cuba, its large size, and the less Hurricane Heat Potential.

But then again, it could survive Cuba, and in that case, we might have something to watch out for.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

I find it sad that the current projected track takes the eyewall right over Havanna, Cuba, and in the left front quad, which is actually kinda bad for them given their position on the North shore. Havanna is highly dense in population (~2.5 million) and many people there do not live in buildings that are anywhere near the kind of code required here in the states. Hopefully I'm wrong, but major hurricanes tracking through densely populated third world countries usually result in a great deal of destruction and suffering.

 

[Mark Farnik]

This breaking Dennis news bulletin :!: ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
MAJOR HURRICANE DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...

JUST AFTER 8 AM EDT...1200Z...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 938 MB...OR 27.70 INCHES...AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 136 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...INDICATING A SURFACE
WIND OF AROUND 140 MPH. THE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE
HURRICANE AND STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
AN INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE INDICATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED
AT 11 AM EDT.
Wow. :shock: And you all said Dennis didn't have a chance of being a Cat 5...
If the pressure has dropped 22 millibars that quickly, it definitely has a shot at becoming a borderline Cat 5 before it heads for Havana. Wait. Oh my god. A borderline Category 5 heading for Havana? It's a nightmare scenario right out of the textbook. Like Ryan said, Havana will be in the right front quadrant. There might not be much left of Havana after Dennis is done with it. And then the NHC is holding onto 115 knot winds all the way to landfall on the Gulf Coast. This could turn out very badly, folks.
There is no good place for this monster to make landfall. Wherever it lands it will cause massive destruction and possible loss of life(I say possible because after last year's horrors everyone in the target area between the Big Easy and Pensacola is alreadypacking up and heading inland even though evacuation orders have not been issued yet.) Plywood and gas are non-existent in the FL Panhandle right now; it will probably get really chaotic the next 36 hours. Stay tuned. :!:

 

[Thomas Loades]

I don't know if this is a legitimate good sign or not, but the IR satellite pictures show the strongest convection in the eyewall as in the S and SE — the regions closest to land (N/NE) are diminished, about a third the diameter of the oceanward parts. Maybe the land is having an effect.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Like Ryan said, Havana will be in the right front quadrant. There might not be much left of Havana after Dennis is done with it.

Actually, my guess would be left front quad -- the storm should track to the east of Havana. The reason that LF quad would be problematic for Havana is because it is on the north shore of the island, and a north wind will create a strong storm surge. Much of Havana lies at not much above sea level.

 

[Justin Bailey]

dennis

guys this thing is not only gonna devestate Havana, but its also pounding all of cuba. Look at how dennis is just crusing right up the entire cuban coast. And Im just stunned at how the pressure continues to drop like a rock...22 mb!!! dennis just might become the first cat.5 of the year. The NHC is calling for dennis to pick up speed a bit this afternoon which means that dennis will spend less time over cuba. Good for them but bad for us. That means dennis will have less time to weaken and will likely continue to be a major hurricane on into the gulf. Yet the NHC isn't forcasting dennis to strengthen much when he enters the GOM for some reason. idk...its looking like dennis could possibly be a strong cat.4 or dare i say a cat. 5 by the time sunday night comes around.

 

[Justin Bailey]

DENNIS

BREAKING NEWS....WINDS ARE UP TO 150 MPH!!!!

 

[Gabe Garfield]

BREAKING NEWS....WINDS ARE UP TO 150 MPH!!!!

What's your source? Thanks!

Gabe

 

[Justin Bailey]

DENNIS

im sorry. The weather channel.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

I've not had the chance to go thru all the posts concerning Dennis...but this has to be the strongest hurricane so early in the season since 1957 when Audrey hit the gulf coast...

Also, typically hurricanes are not this large in early July. I wonder what the rest of the season will be like...my feeling is that it won't be the number of storms that some are thinking. I expect somewhat of a lull between now and mid Aug. then another surge for Sept. which is typically the height of the season anyway. I also don't expect Fla. to get hit as much as last year....even though this makes number 2 for the season.

The Bermuda high is situated this year where they'll be more activity in the Caribbean and western Gulf...I think Texas will be under the gun at least once this season.

How do I know this?...more guess work than anything else....
plus, I've been staying at those Holiday Inn Expresses .... #!#

Rocky&family
____________
P.S Just got off the phone with Charles Edwards...Dennis is up to 130kts as of the 10am advisory.

 

[rdale]

"What's your source?"

The National Hurricane Center issues a public forecast product every three hours with the latest location, aircraft / surface reports, and forecast info, it can be found at their website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov along with MANY other places.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

The National Hurricane Center issues a public forecast product every three hours with the latest location, aircraft / surface reports, and forecast info, it can be found at their website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov along with MANY other places.

Thanks I was aware of the NHC site, I just didn't know if there was a Public Advisory or recon that I hadn't read that had upped the intensity to 150 mph. The 8:25 am public advisory read "...INDICATING A SURFACE WIND OF AROUND 140 MPH," so I didn't know if this had been adjusted or not. (I hadn't seen the 11 am advisory)

Gabe

 

[cedwards]

The latest advisory from the NHC 130kt!!!!

 

[MClarkson]

938mb.... very strong cat 4.

cuba is going to get pounded.