07/05/05 -- TALK: Hurricane Dennis

Dennis is really giving Cuba its best. The eye has actually been half on shore and half over water for over an hour and for almost 100 miles. It is raking Cuba's shoreline and at the same time not really losing any of its power. People will die today, I just pray that it is not that many.
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The latest update states that Cienfuegos reported a 149MPH gust, with 85% of powerlines down and extensive damage to the communications infrastructure. This is just the beginning of those types of reports. Bless those in Cuba today.
 
Dennis' eye is now onshore in Cuba, and it's tops have warmed significantly over the past 3 hours.

The center looks to have wobbled northwest to take it onshore, then west-northwest, and now appears to be meadering almost due westerly (but I'm sure it has a northerly component to it).

KR
 
Perhaps a link?

What an unusual year... first no TOR"s in OK in May, and now this.

:: throws away climatology data ::

My thoughts are with the people in the path of this storm.
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I wondered if there was a link, but the east side of the Ridge of Death encouraged masses of cold air to penetrate the Gulf States well into May, but a better guess might be the persistent 500 mb ridge that has been keeping parts of the Midwest extremely dry.

Along more ghoulish lines, a swath of severe and extreme drought covers a swath of territory that extends roughly from Chicago to Cape Girardeau to Dallas to Houston. Only an extended period of heavy rain would mitigate the drought, and the most likely source of that over the next month would be a tropical storm or hurricane.

To increase the temptation to root for Dennis, here in the Corn Belt the corn is getting ready for pollination. The pollination period is the most critical for rain, and Dennis is our best chance for it this season. By the time the latest ridge of death breaks down, it may be too late to save the crop...

Of course another Cindy would be quite sufficient...three inches of rain would be plenty.
 
Forcast track of Dennis

The forcast track the Weather Channel keeps posting has Dennis stretching west to reach the Pensacola Bay/Mobile/Miss. coast, its moving more north than west now, if thats the case itll skirt the coast of FL causing flooding and winds in its NE/E quadrant. We thought we were safe last year during Charley/Jeanne/Frances here in N Central Florida, we were wrong.

Battening down whatever might blow away here at GNV airport, then headed home to check the generator, best of luck to all in its path/vicinity, be safe!
You will be in our prayers.
 
One thing to point out is that SSTs in the Gulf are significantly lower (1-3 C lower) than the SSTs where Dennis gained strength in the last 24-48 hrs (in the Caribbean). Thus, Dennis will have a more difficult time regaining strength once it is in the Gulf, even with a low-shear environment. With this in mind (and the current interaction with the Cuban landmass), I'm still expecting a hurricane that is significantly weaker than the NHC forecast (strong Cat 2 is still my guess). No doubt this will be a very significant hurricane for the United States, but I don't think it will be near the history-maker that Charley, Andrew, et al. were in the past (which it would be if it landfell at Cat 4 or greater).

Gabe
 
One thing to point out is that SSTs in the Gulf are significantly lower (1-3 C lower) than the SSTs where Dennis gained strength in the last 24-48 hrs (in the Caribbean).

Gabe
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This is a good point...but I think more important to consider is the Oceanic Heat Content...which is quite a bit cooler across the Gulf as opposed to the Caribbean...along with the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

SST's are only a measure of a relatively thin layer of water where as the OHC can be a better measure of the energy available for use by a tropical cyclone. Of course this data is still in the research stages, but should still be considered in intensity forecasts. Based on this along with other factors (increased shear, dry air intrusion, etc.), I agree with the Cat.2/weak 3 at landfall.
 
The core as seen on Key West radar looks pretty bad, and it's only half way to the other side of Cuba. My forecast is that it will only be a cat. 2 at most after emerging into the Gulf. However, since NHC is so insistent on keeping it a cat. 3, they may be biased towards that end. They can't fly recon into the storm while it's over Cuba, so it'll be a slightly subjective call with regards to intensity tonight. Radar isn't really accurate when it comes to measuring hurricane intensity.


EDIT: Well, looks like after I posted this, I checked and NHC dropped the winds to 115 mph. Looks like my guess should verify, down to cat. 2 later tonight.
 
NHC has reduced intensity to 95 knots as of 11 P.M. EDT advisory. Even though considerably weaker, Dennis is maintaining a tight inner core and the eye will likely move back over water in a hour to two hours. He is currently just 20 miles east of Havana, so they really dodged the bullet on this storm. It was Cienfuegos rather than Havana that took the brunt of Dennis, and scattered reports emerging from that town indicate severe, widespread damage to the town and communication infrastructure. I would not be suprised to see thousands of casualties and dozens of fatalities come out of Cuba in the wake of Dennis. From the NHC 11 P.M. EDT Discussion:
DENNIS SHOULD BE OVER WATER SHORTLY...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM SHOULD REGAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS...AND THAT IS FOLLOWED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WHICH BRINGS DENNIS BACK TO 110 KT IN 24 HR AND MAINTAINS THAT
INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DENNIS COULD
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL...DENNIS
SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
Everyone on this forum seems very skeptical of Dennis's potential to restrengthen. It is justifable skepticism, since this storm has defied essentially all definitions for tropical systems occuring in early July, but it is not like the SST's in the Gulf are mild ( yes, they are 1-3 degrees Celsius cooler than the Caribbean SST's but yet they are still in the mid 80's which is still above normal for this time of year.) It's not like Dennis is going to be crossing a major upwelling from a previous 'cane and encountering SST's in the 70's, for crying out loud. :roll: Also, and the shear factor seems to become less of one with each successive model run. I believe (and I may be wrong, but I am human) that Dennis has a chance; I am not saying it is even probable, but he does have a decent chance of restrengthening into a powerful hurricane with 110-115 knot winds and maintaining that strength until landfall.
 
Looks like the center has moved back over water with in the last 15-20 minutes. Radar wind estimates seem to be staying pretty much inline with NHC's statements. NW quad has just started displaying some 55-60kt returns again...time to see what he has left in him.

Good luck to those in the way of this thing.
 
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