07/05/05 -- TALK: Hurricane Dennis

Yes, that is some pretty amazing structure. I dare say that it rivals that of Ivan and Camille. If a cat. 4 makes landfall in the currently forecast area (being stronger than Ivan), then the only thing that would top Dennis is Camille. However, if you animate the following water vapor image:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

it becomes clear why the rapid intensification occured between 17:00Z and 22:00Z today. Notice the upper low over New England. At around 18:00Z - 19:00Z, EXACTLY when the upper-level flow "caught" Dennis on the northern side, the CDO deepened and the eye became fully symmentrical and clear!! The outflow induced the rapid deepening. Dennis should continue to strengthen until this flow is cut off. Similar to the Opal scenario, if the trough to the north pushes away to the east, and the ridge builds in before Dennis makes landfall, it should weaken slightly before landfall and "pull an Ivan."
 
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES2315...05190DW1ty8.jpg

Sweet shot at sunset looking down into that thing. Surely there are higher res versions out there. I'd love to see a higher res image from this same time frame. The lighting is just right to see well into the eye and have the side/wall lit up. That has to be as perfect as they get. Very cool!
Click to expand...

Here you go Mike. 1600x1200 at 1km resolution

http://nexrad.allisonhouse.com/customer/sa...050709_2315.gif

If you want a wider view let me know. I zoomed in.

More free hires/animation images available here:
http://www.allisonhouse.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=19
 
I hate to post this here, but it is of general interest:

GOES-8 (E) always stops transmitting for several hours late at night.

Last year I was switching to GOES-10 © during those blackout hours, which I think I got from PSC, but they seem to have locked a lot of their access to the public.

Anyone have a source for GOES-10 imagery now?

Thanks.

Bob
 
storm up to 125 now, they eye has really tightned. There appears to be some dry air to the SE, anybody see that?
 
I'm a big fan of this satellite:

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

It converts between Visible and IR day and night respectively by itself.

At 942 mb, Dennis is only 1 mb higher than Charley at landfall! However, winds aren't as high as Charley right now because Charley was smaller and therefore the (p/z) pressure gradient is less.

As per the dry air, in the SE quad.....
It doesn't look hostile, since it may just be the periferial subsidence that is present just outside the CDO (and inside a radius smaller than the main outer convective band hanging over FL and Cuba). There is abundant moisture throughout 80% of the Gulf, so Dennis is having no problems there. Still, I think the storm is peaking in intensity, or very close to doing that. If it hits an eyewall replacement cycle, it'll pause its current deepening trend, and if that lasts long enough for the decreasing outflow to kick in, it may very well have a *slight* weaking immediately before landfall.
 
Quite an impressive Hurricane right now. It now appears Dennis will probably intensify to a Cat 4 Hurricane. The Eyewall Temp is now 12.1C and Dvorak Anaylsis has increased strength every check. As of 7:45 it's showing 100kts and most likely is underestamating the pressure. With the latest recon showing 942mb.

If anyone has some links to some good Hurricane anaylsis sites I would appreciate it if you pm me. Mainly shear forecasts, model comparsions, wind, rainfall etc. Im looking to get as many as possible.

-Scott.
 
Scott, I PM'ed you. So latest VORTEX has pressure down to 941 mb. Intensity is probably peaking now, but it'll be interesting to see what NHC has it at 11 pm advisory. They were probably reluctant to push it up to a cat. 4 at 9 pm because of continuity, but they may have to now. Low 940's almost always indicates a cat. 4 intensity storm.
 
Thanks Owen. Latest NHC track shifts to the west, would expect the next update to increase the winds a bit with such a drop in pressure. But I agree that this should just about be peaked out. With some more subtle strengthning. Dvorak has three hour intensity at 107.2kts or present at 115kts.
 
Scott, I PM'ed you. So latest VORTEX has pressure down to 941 mb. Intensity is probably peaking now, but it'll be interesting to see what NHC has it at 11 pm advisory. They were probably reluctant to push it up to a cat. 4 at 9 pm because of continuity, but they may have to now. Low 940's almost always indicates a cat. 4 intensity storm.
Click to expand...

TPC still has a 125 mph Cat 3 storm. :evil: They really need to upgrade Dennis to a Cat 4.

Thanks Owen. Latest NHC track shifts to the west, would expect the next update to increase the winds a bit with such a drop in pressure. But I agree that this should just about be peaked out. With some more subtle strengthning. Dvorak has three hour intensity at 107.2kts or present at 115kts.
Click to expand...

Again, TPC still has a Cat 3 storm. But everything else I agree with. The eye is starting to look ragged, and if you look closely on the IR, the southwest side of this is looking like it's beginning to erode. Looks like another Lili.

BTW, between 0Z and 2Z, the pressure dropped 11 mb according to TPC. Also, in 12 hours, the pressure dropped something like 40 mb! Hard to imagine that 12 hours ago, this was still Cat 1. And this passed over a land mass!!!! :shock: :shock: :shock:

No wonder why TPC called today's unexpected intensification "insane"!
 
At 10 pm CDT, the NWS went with 125 mph surface winds around Dennis, with an increase to 140-145 mph at landfall.

Meanwhile, people in the Ohio Valley better check up on their flood insurance. Dennis is expected to be centered over Cairo, IL Tuesday evening, and then it will follow the Ohio to Tell City in SC Indiana by Wednesday evening and the OH-KY-WV border by Thursday evening; that comes to a forward speed of 6-8 mph.

To my eye, it looks like a wedge of dry air can be seen trying to spiral into the storm from the south and that the storm cannot expect much support from its west. This may nudge Dennis downward to a Cat 3 by the time it hits.
 
940mb and 130knot flight level winds just picked up.

well defined eye with almost symetrical CDO on IR sat...

sure looks like a 4 to me.
 
Sfc winds are usually 10 mph less than flight level winds, so the next intermediate advisory (in 20 minutes) should indicate a 140 mph Dennis - Cat 4.

Pray for those living in the Gulf Coast tonight. I'm still thinking that Dennis will weaken right before landfall a bit, but that doesn't matter if Dennis is a Cat 5!

EDIT: sfc winds are 10% less, not 10 mph less, than flight level winds, so Dennis is 135 mph. :oops:
 
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