07/05/05 -- TALK: Hurricane Dennis

[cedwards]

It is back up to a cat4. Pressure is now 937mb this is the lowest it has been. I think some further strengthening is possible, but I don't think it will make it to cat5.

Anybody chasing this one, BE CAREFUL! Wish I was there.
I will be there for the recovery afterwards.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

This has to be the most amusing and creepy thing I've ever seen a hurricane forcaster type:

AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL RATE THIS EVENING.

Forcaster Beven must be aiming for forecaster Stewart's "most loved on the internet for his weather prose" title.

 

[David Schuttler]

I still have concern's Dennis could take more of a west turn skirting the Lousiana coastline and send the surge side to New Orlean's on too short of notice...

Maybe too much Hollywood lately, Is there enough issues to prevent this ? I'm not a model reader so don't rip me too bad if it's real obvious it won't have a chance to do this :wink:

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I have been wondering the same thing. When is the last time we had a hurricane take a surprise turn? Will this be a home run into Mobile? It would be interesting to know whether any of the factors are present for an erratic track.

Tim

 

[Jeff Lawson]

Usually, when a storm gets to be as strong as Dennis currently is, you see some cycling in intensity. However, given how quickly Dennis intensified prior to making landfall on Cuba, and considering how quickly it bounced back upon re-entering the Gulf, I can't help but wonder if the storm will ever do anything over water but intensify. Granted, that's not very logical, but I've never seen such a tenacious storm in my life. From a weather weenie standpoint, it's really something.

While I have doubts Dennis will make Category 5, all it would take at this point is a short period of rapid deepening to bring it very, very close. For that matter, even continued gradual intensification leading up to landfall could bring it close. Of course, Category 4 or Category 5... it's going to be a mess either way.

 

[MClarkson]

if it doesnt go through an eyewall cycle then it has a chance... that jet looks like its really helping outflow to the north and the models dont show much change in those upper level winds in the near future. In fact some of the models seem to be building stronger outflow to the south of the storm as well.

 

[MClarkson]

its becoming less symetrical in the latest IR frames.

 

[Austin Ivey]

its interesting to note how small the hurricane force wind radius is given Dennis' large satellite presentation. apparently hurricane force winds only extend ~70miles out from the center....mostly to the west. very tightly wound storm.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

Anybody chasing this one, BE CAREFUL! Wish I was there.

Staying safe is my number 1 priority... you be carefull when you do come down.

This is really hitting home for me....literally. It's ironic and strange that I transferred here to finish my Met degree and i have two hurricanes and two tropical storms since I've been here.

It's hard to focus on chasing this thing knowing my apartment is only a few miles away from where we will be setup. plus worrying about all the non-weather friends I've made since living here, most have left thankfully.

Wish this entire area some luck...

 

[Kyle Masters]

Just curious, is this now the most posted-on topic?

 

[MClarkson]

932 mb...

 

[Thomas Loades]

The pressure's 930, winds are 145 mph sustained with gusts to 171, and the eye can now be seen on the Northwest Florida WSR. It almost looks to have a double eyewall — at the least, it's an extremely pronounced 9-shape. Looks like the eye will pass over the Pensacola/Gulf Breeze area.

NOTE: and obs are no longer available for Pensacola or Appalachiola.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Interesting radar composite using the full 248 nm products. The two marks are the eye positions from radar from about 10 hours ago.

 

[Owen Shieh]

Yeah, it has definitely taken a jog more northward. I'm inclined to think that at most, Mobile will only get the western side of the storm. Thankfully, the eastern side would shove the Gulf up into Mobile Bay. In terms of it turning west to New Orleans.....extremely unlikely. If anything, it'll deviate to the right. Most systems do this upon landfall, since rapid deepening causes the mean-level steering flow to be adjusted higher, and typically, higher level winds are more westerly. It won't hook to the left by any huge amount, unless there's a strong ridge in place north of it. There isn't such a thing today.

BTW, equations state that a pressure of 920 mb translates well into cat. 5 intensity.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Do they keep records of how many people evacuate and how many people are left, because Pensacola looks to see a direct hit from Dennis and 2004 population estimates are roughly 54K.

EDIT>>Pressure is up to 937mb.

EDIT2>>Dennis now appears to have made the northerly turn.