MClarkson
EF5
I agree, it appears to be wobbling north... which would bring the storm ashore east of pensacola.
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07/05/05 -- TALK: Hurricane Dennis
- Thread starter Ben Cotton
- Start date
Owen Shieh
EF2
There is a VERY good possibility that the right-front quad will hit Pensacola Bay. This is becoming quite a dangerous situation for all those around the bay. I would certainly hope any and everyone out chasing this thing is on high ground away from the bay! Last few frames of the visible satellite is showing another round of warming in the eye. I don't think it will weaken too much more. Outflow is still good in all quads, and there is no dry air present. Hence, no great tornado threat either. If this makes landfall with pressure less than 942 mb, official records indicate that this will be the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in that area!! This thing is already much more intense than Ivan, albeit smaller in diameter.
Scott Olson
EF5
Latest Vortex in showing flight level winds of 127kts in NE Quad. Looks like Dennis the Menance is holding together. Latest Dvorak has a subtle increase of intensity of the last hour. Still shows a CI of 6.0 but I believe that is skewed by the 6-12 hour intensification as it is an average scheme over 12 hours. The eye does appear a little more ragged.
EDIT: Eyewall has warmed considerably to 5.5C. And certainly doesn't look to be weakening.
Chris Allington
EF4
NHC just dropped the intensity a little lower to 135 mph as of noon...
They expect the center of Dennis to come ashore within the next few hours near Pennsacola... looking at radar imagery Dennis appears to have wobbled even almost to due North now...
Tim Vasquez
EF5
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This is a duplicate announcement of something I posted in Weather & Chasing:
Stormtrack is now running real-time radar of the landfall using near-street level maps. Animations are also available.
http://www.stormtrack.org/special/Owen Shieh
EF2
It is now jogging almost due north. What a difference 15 minutes makes! Pensacola may now miss the worst of it. Right now, the slightest degree of direction shift could mean life or death for some area. For now, Ft. Walton Beach looks like it will get a direct hit with the right-front quad.
Sam Sagnella
EF5
Intense eyewall convection now wrapping completely around eye per KEVX radar site, and the dry air now seems to have mostly worked its way out of the system. I see at least some restrengthening before landfall, though we're running out of time for Dennis to do anything, as the inner core becomes better organized.
--Based on Tim's special radar view, and the use of Google Maps, landfall should be right along the Gulf Islands National Seashore and the city of Gulf Breeze.
Amos Magliocco
EF5
Crazy as it sounds, WKRG Mobile is reporting that one dozen families are still on Dauphin Island. I don't know the character of that barrier island, but everything I've seen makes it seem very flat and not much above sea level. Why those folks would choose to remain there is beyond me.
MClarkson
EF5
I dunno, people told me they were staying on dauphin island durring ivan too when I was down there for that... I guess there are some solid structures over there. Its gonna get missed on the left side by this one...Owen Shieh
EF2
The northern eyewall looks trecherous. I dunno, those barrier islands may be geographically wrecked by this thing. I wouldn't be surprised if maps have to be redrawn if the intensity remains the same. Jim Cantore is on Gulf Breeze, so he may be getting the worse of it, if not slightly to the east of him.Jeff Lawson
EF3
Having spent a good bit of time on Dauphin Island, I'd say it's not the sort of place I'd want to ride out a hurricane. My aunt who lives on the island has evacuated, thankfully.
It looks like Ft. Walton Beach will see the worst of the storm as it comes onshore.
There's an old fort and some Coast Guard facilities on the eastern end of the island, but aside from that, it's just a bunch of wood frame vacation homes and small hotels. The island lacks big, concrete-reinforced hotels, and the vacation homes on the outer margin of the island seem perilously close to the water even on good days.Aaron Kennedy
EF5
IF you want some comic relief...check out:
mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93323
They've had oppurtunities for people to call in... and boy are they great.
People ranging from what to do with their 100 llamas, to an elderly man wondering what to do for his wife (who is on some sort of electric ventilator) if the power goes out. Reporter's response: ummm that's something you should of planned for in advance.
lol.
Aaron
Sam Sagnella
EF5
Google Map of the Landfall Area
Google Map Satellite View of Landfall Area
Storm surge from Dennis is going to absolutely DECIMATE most of coastal Santa Rosa County. I still see him strengthening a little in the hour or so before the northern eyewall begins to cross the coast.
EDIT>>Gulf Breeze is gonna be seeing some of the strongest winds Dennis has to offer, and I dont know wtf Cantore is thinking staying there. "We're within a mile of the coast." Good God, hurricane coverage is just becoming reckless...
MClarkson
EF5
im sure hes behind a solid structure.
its too bad none of the airports around navarre have asos... the nearest one is in destin.
edit: navy pensicola also should have instrumentation that may be closer to the eye although it will be on the left side.
edit again... navy pensacola is also not responding.Owen Shieh
EF2
Dennis has a history of making trochoidal loops, so looking at radar, it is overdue for another loop to the west immediately before landfall. Convective band has shifted to the NW now, so Ft. Walton Beach might be spared, though Santa Rosa Island and Pesacola Beach will be decimated.Similar threads
