07/05/05 -- TALK: Hurricane Dennis

Any stronger and this sucker would be a category 5. This is about as strong as a category 4 as you can get. Does anybody know if this is the earliest storm to reach category 4 strength or possibly the earliest storm to crack 150 mph??

Overall this seems a lot like Hurricane Opal from 1995 which reached a peak intensity of...surprise...150 MPH and then weakened into a marginal category 3 before hitting...surprise...Pensacola, Florida. The tracks were horribly different but the end result in the US could be the same. Here's what the NHC said about Opal...

The minimum central pressure at landfall was 942 mb. Maximum sustained surface winds are currently estimated at 100 knots in a narrow swath at the coast near the extreme eastern tip of Choctawhatchee Bay about midway between Destin and Panama City. Although no official reports of surface winds were received within this area, data from reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar suggest that the peak winds occurred in this location. It should be emphasized that the strongest winds were in a very limited area and most of the coastal areas of the Florida panhandle experienced winds of a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane (between 65 and 95 knots). Although the winds were diminishing at the time of landfall, extensive damage due to storm surge and breaking waves occurred over most of the coastal areas of the Florida panhandle.
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...Alex Lamers...
 
....dont be driving over the pensacola bay bridge(I10) durring this storm...

Ivan allready ripped it up and it hasnt even been properly rebuilt yet.

For those of you chasing in that region I would expect that bridge to be closed early after what happend last time, and perhaps the nearby bridges as well. The detour north probably takes an hour if the roads are clear... much much longer if there are trees down.
 
....dont be driving over the pensacola bay bridge(I10) durring this storm...

Ivan allready ripped it up and it hasnt even been properly rebuilt yet.
Click to expand...

And don't attempt to go to pensacola beach. You may be safe if you are in one of the stronger buildings there, but you WILL be stranded for a while. After Ivan, the bridges were no open for vehicles for almost a month. and that was with the proper credentials. If you go to Navarre or Gulf Breeze, be prepared to get swept away. any escape route will be closed or flooded. This area is still trying to recover from Ivan. In Ivan, hwy 98 was piled high with depris washed up from the storm surge.

Pensacol itself is higher up and has many relativily safe places, but there will be a curfew and you don't want to be caught outside.


Anybody chasing, stay safe and good luck.
 
The 06Z GFDL brings Dennis' eye ashore at the MS-AL border as a Category 4 with winds of 140mph. If that solution pans out, a 15 foot storm surge with likely decimate Mobile Bay. The strongest winds are forecast to be just west of Pensacola so this may very well be the storm to cause people to give up...two MAJOR hurricanes in 10 months is more than anyone bargained for when they moved to the MOB-PNS coast.
 
unfortunatly, the further west this storm tracks the later into the day and then night on sunday he will come ashore. west of mobile bay would probably meen a nighttime landfall, which is unfortunate for chasers.

can we get a cat 4 durring the day please?
 
Unfortunately, the eye is now bearing down on Cienfuegos, Cuba which is a regional population center of roughly 150,000 persons. A quick google search on the town reveals it would be a beatiful place to visit. Barring a strong wobble west, it looks like Havana will be spared from the brunt of the storm.

You can get some nice zoomed satelite images of the beast here:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

A short while ago you could see vorticies swirling in the eye.

With a little clicking you can get to Cuba surface obs here:
http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/index.html
 
It's official. Dennis is the STRONGEST hurricane ever to develop in July, and it is also the EARLIEST hurricane ever to develop and become so strong. This is for records going back to 1851 (though the pre-1960 age without satellite makes it difficult to track).

Also, here's a link to an amazing radar loop of Dennis. This is the Pico San Juan radar, and the eye is heading straight for it! I wouldn't be surprised if it fails in a few hours.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=...CIENFUEGOSA.gif
 
It's official. Dennis is the STRONGEST hurricane ever to develop in July, and it is also the EARLIEST hurricane ever to develop and become so strong. This is for records going back to 1851 (though the pre-1960 age without satellite makes it difficult to track).
Click to expand...

What an unusual year... first no TOR"s in OK in May, and now this.

:: throws away climatology data ::

My thoughts are with the people in the path of this storm.
 
Nice visible satellite presentation right now. I can't imagine that it'll only weaken 20kts in peak wind intensity as it crosses Cuba, however. It'll end up being over land for a pretty decent amount of time, so I have a hunch it'll end up weakening more into the 95-105kt range, but we'll see. certainly looks like the southcentral Cuba coast is taking a beating right now as the eye is nearly paralleling parts of the island.
 
It may very well weaken more than in the official forecast, but look at the time interval and locations of the forecast points. It will continue to weeken after the 9/00Z position untill it emerges out in the Gulf. Then it will begin its strengthening trend for a while before the next forecast point at 9/12Z
 
Known as the “Pearl of the Southâ€, Cienfuegos – just an hour from Trinidad – is a beautifully preserved city, characterised by a rainbow of pastel coloured buildings lining the main streets and a lively restaurant scene – some of the best seafood on the island - surrounding the bay. The friendly population – discernible by their striking blonde hair and blue eyes – welcome visitors and are eager to regale you with tales of their beautiful city. With some of Cuba’s most unspoilt beaches, impressive botanical gardens and a well preserved Spanish fortress within 25km of the city, Cienfuegos is the perfect stop for a few nights’ exploration of Southern Cuba.
Click to expand...

*Sigh* Brings it home a little bit.... :(
 
Cold cloud tops have really filled in on the NW side now and the classic donut is looking real nice now on IR satellite. Down to 145 mph now per latest NHC advisory but that won't make much difference to the people in that area.

I'm starting to agree with the GFDL which has had a pretty good handle on this cane. It'll drop down to maybe upper level cat 2 strength but most probably low-mid cat 3 strength once it re-emerges in the gulf. It will then gradually intensify to winds in the 130-140 MPH range before making landfall somewhere within 40 miles of Mobile AL.

...Alex Lamers...
 
Dennis is really giving Cuba its best. The eye has actually been half on shore and half over water for over an hour and for almost 100 miles. It is raking Cuba's shoreline and at the same time not really losing any of its power. People will die today, I just pray that it is not that many.
 
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