07/05/05 -- TALK: Hurricane Dennis

[MClarkson]

The only drastuc limmiting factor now appears to be cuba... thats gonna be a big chunk taken out of the cane but hopefully she will regain some strength in the gulf before getting mixed up with the shear to the north.

the gfdl continues to call for regaining cat 4 strength briefly in the gulf although I think the odds of that are low. Still, odds are getting better and better that their will be a chaseable major hurricane in or around the florida panhandle hopefully durring the daylight on sunday.

 

[Justin Bailey]

.

cuba will take a large amount of energy from this storm.. im not so sure it will become a cat. 4 hurr. once in the gulf. however a strong cat. 3 i dont think is out of the question.

 

[Owen Shieh]

History may be repeating itself:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...928/2/track.gif

This was an unnamed hurricane, second one of the 1928 season, that had a track that is nearly identical to Dennis so far, except Dennis' track is just a tad farther south without a landfall in extreme southwestern Haiti. For Dennis, the track along the western Florida coast would be the worst case scenario, though it should not be as close as this 1928 storm.

Owen

 

[Bob Schafer]

Originally posted by MClarkson
The only drastuc limmiting factor now appears to be cuba... thats gonna be a big chunk taken out of the cane but hopefully she will regain some strength

Whether you are a "chaser" or not, it is neither appropriate, nor even moral, to wish for such a thing, privately or publicly.

I usually hold my tongue when I see people wishing for destructive and deadly weather, but I am compelled to respond this afternoon.

"she"?

Bob

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Bob Schafer+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Bob Schafer)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-MClarkson

The only drastuc limmiting factor now appears to be cuba... thats gonna be a big chunk taken out of the cane but hopefully she will regain some strength

Whether you are a "chaser" or not, it is neither appropriate, nor even moral, to wish for such a thing, privately or publicly.

I usually hold my tongue when I see people wishing for destructive and deadly weather, but I am compelled to respond this afternoon.

"she"?

Bob[/b]

Huh? It's not like he said he wishes that it kills a ton of people. How many people wish for tornadoes on this forum - I'm sure you don't sit there saying "I sure wish CAPE was alot lower, I don't want there to be numerous/big tornadoes today". Obviously any type of natural disaster is significant, it just depends on what you choose - Tornadoes, hurricanes, volcanoes, etc..

 

[Alex Lamers]

Well staying out of the bickering...this sucker is up to 130 MPH and no good. It is rapidly intensifying. I thought from the beginning that this will be Cat 4-5 material around Cuba and it looks like that may pan out.

I'm not sure why everyone is thinking such a weakening trend will occur with interactions with Cuba and then it will sustain the exit intensity through the Gulf with little intensification. I think it will be trouble for sure. Unexpected intensification in the Gulf with bad results...sounds like Charley to me.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/2345 UTC 19.4N 77.0W T6.0/6.0 DENNIS -- Atlantic Ocean

Dvorak intensity estimates are up to a 6 as of about an hour ago. This is equivalent to a Category 4 intensity storm with 115 knot winds and a minimum pressure of about 948 mb. Given recent trends this seems on the nose and therefore I would not be surprised to see an upgrade here on this upcoming outlook in 2 hours.

These Carribean islands are susceptible to extreme damage from such storms and despite having an "evil dictator" I still hope the losses in Cuba will not be too extreme.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...nds/wg8sht.html

Shear has been decreasing in the advance of Dennis and in its immediate forward path...virtually no shear. Things don't look good...

...Alex Lamers...

 

[MClarkson]

It looks like the eye is about to just cross over the extreme southwestern tip of of cuba. Pressure of 951 mb...

 

[Alex Lamers]

decoded Observation Number: 33 Time: 0030Z Position: 19.4 North // 76.9 West Sea Level Pressure: 969 millibars surface winds: n/a 925 millibar height: 412 meters 925 millibar winds: 140 knots // 080 850 millibar height: 1148 meters 850 millibar winds: 146 knots // 105 700 millibar height: 2811 meters

140 knots (or 161 mph) at 925 mb

this sucker is intense. Thanks to Mr. Westbrook if he reads this for giving me the decoded version

Should see an upgrade soon if thats correct!

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Owen Shieh]

Did anyone else notice the -51 degree C dewpoint at 700 mb flight level observed by recon obs a few hours ago?!?! That's nuts. The subsidence must be incredible in the center. RH values must be around 0.30%. I don't even know if it's possible to measure accurately. Perhaps it was a mistake.


EDIT: Actually, I looked this up: http://ams.allenpress.com/amsonline/?reque...WE%3E2.0.CO%3B2

So the sonde ob was most likely a mistake.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Huh? It's not like he said he wishes that it kills a ton of people. How many people wish for tornadoes on this forum - I'm sure you don't sit there saying "I sure wish CAPE was alot lower, I don't want there to be numerous/big tornadoes today". Obviously any type of natural disaster is significant, it just depends on what you choose - Tornadoes, hurricanes, volcanoes, etc..

Well... I think a hurricane is a bit of a different beast. With 'naders, there's a good chance that the only thing that will be impacted by them is empty farmfields. In fact, it's pretty rare for us chasers to actually witness a tornado plow through a city. Hurricanes, on the other hand, are so large that it's almost impossible for them to not impact a populated area when they land. A hurricane landing anywhere in the current projected path would cause a large amount of damage and sufferering. The bigger the cane, the more the damage and suffering and likely deaths; at some point, you're looking at a small catastrophe. So wishing for this 'cane to get bigger is almost like wishing for a wedge to get bigger and stronger as it approaches OKC.

Just my two (many!) cents.

 

[Alex Lamers]

It's official. Category 4. This could be bad.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF DENNIS REMAINS OVER WATER.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Mark Farnik]

11 P.M. advisory just came out, and it's official; Dennis is now a Category 4 with sustained winds of 135 mph and a minimum pressure of 950 millibars. The NHC indicates that further strengthening is possible before Dennis crashes into the south central coast of Cuba and makes a beeline for Havana. They also indicate Dennis dropping to 100 knots after he smashes through Cuba, then restrengthening to 110 knots before landfall along the Gulf Coast, most likely between Mobile, AL and Apalachicola, FL.
The latest NHC guidance has shifted back to the west slightly, so it looks grim for Pensacola at the moment.
They still may be underplaying the restrengthing a little bit, but that can be expected for wind speed predictions this far out. According to the discussion, the guidance models have shifted back westward, and Gulfport and New Orleans are back in the potential target area. From the 11 P.M EDT NHC Discussion: THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...DENNIS
COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL THE CORE ENCOUNTERS CENTRAL
CUBA...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER
THAT...SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY. THESE INCLUDE...WILL THE
CURRENTLY TIGHTLY WOUND CORE OF DENNIS SURVIVE PASSAGE ACROSS
LAND...WHAT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES MAY OCCUR...AND HOW MUCH
ENERGY IS AVAILABLE IN THE WARM...BUT THIN...SURFACE LAYER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT WILL DECREASE AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWARD...CAUSING THE STORM
TO WEAKEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL AND GFDN BOTH CALL FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.

I'm not even going to try to guess what intensity will be at or where he will be heading the next 36 hours. It is completley up in the air right now and it probably will not be apparent where he is headed until Saturday. I have a bad feeling that Dennis may pull a Charley and make a sudden turn as he approaches the coast. Like I said, it is too problematic at this point to even attempt to guess where this monster is heading and how strong it will be.
Being a Cat 4 and all, Cuba is probably going to be devastated by Dennis, especially the central part of that island. Pray for them tonight. [/i]

 

[Owen Shieh]

At this point, Dennis should not pull a Charley. The surface trough off the west coast of Florida and the mid-upper ridge over the state should act as a mild buffer. If it does turn, I would be very surprised. However, paralleling the coast is a different story.....it could possibly happen if the trough is aligned NNW-SSE in that direction. We'll have to see after analyzing surface obs in the morning.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I have a feeling that Dennis will weaken substantially after impacting Cuba. The terrain in central Cuba is somewhat higher (not incredibly significant, though) than in western Cuba (where Charley crossed last year), so the hurricane's interaction with the land should be slightly more pronounced. No doubt Dennis will be a formidable hurricane in the Gulf, but I am thinking only a weak category 2 at landfall (100-200 miles north of Tampa is my guess). I could be wrong, but I really have the feeling this thing is going to bite it after interacting with Cuba. Positively considered, Dennis is moving quite quickly, so his interaction with Cuba might not be that significant.

Also, on a somewhat anecdotal note, I've noticed that hurricanes that are powerful Cat. 4 and Cat 5 hurricanes way out at sea get everyone's attention, and then they promptly die when getting within a few hundred miles of the coast. Then there are hurricanes like Charley that weren't much 36 hours before landfall, but favorable conditions allowed for rapid deepening and a big surprise. I think this hurricane will probably scare a lot of people, but will not do near as much to Florida as it will (and is doing) to Cuba.

Gabe

 

[MClarkson]

we will have to wait and see how bad the storm gets disrupted by cuba, and how quickely it can get back together on the other side.