07/05/05 -- TALK: Hurricane Dennis

Latest GFS model run has shifted the system east quite dramatically to landfall in FL panhandle. I'm very skeptical about it though, because at 12Z Thursday, it is already too far north (the center hasn't gained more latitude than Jamaica as the models indicates). The model assumed the earlier NW jog would continue, but judging from satellite, it has gone back to WNW, or just wobbled a bit to follow the blowup of convection in the western semicircle. So if the initial condition of the GFS is already wrong, it's landfall location can't be correct. It would be best to wait for its next run.

Also, the GFDL has the same problem because it uses the GFS initial conditions. So if the GFS is wrong, then the GFDL can't be trusted either. Best to wait for the next run before deciding on an eastward shift at landfall. Also, pay attention to satellite. If it doesn't continue NW and still returns WNW for a landfall in Jamaica, then New Orleans is not out of the woods yet.

This is chaos theory in action.....a slight 1-5 degree shift in motion can mean a difference of 100-200 nm at landfall.
 
Definitely a very well-organized storm now. There's no visible eye, but a pronounced eyewall, which has just reached the eastern tip of Jamaica. Also, the pressure is down to 968 mb now.
 
Pensacola, again

According to the 11 AM EDT advisory, Dennis is tracking to the right of the path originally forecast. Accordingly, the forecast track has shifted eastward, with landfall most likely in the western Florida Panhandle. 105 kt winds are expected, though the NHC would not be surprised by something more intense.
 
The eye of Dennis along with the eyewall are both very well defined in the latest visible sat from floater #2. The storm is wobbling and the track will continue to shift. I'm pretty sure the next flight into the storm will show the winds increasing and the pressure dropping.
 
pensacola???

im not wishing that dennis hits the big easy, but i just dont see how the pensacola, panama city area can withstand another major hurricane. im hoping the forcasted shear in the northern GOM will weaken it before landfall.
 
The wind field on this thing is getting larger and is skewed to the east, so that's bad news for everyone. Haiti, Cuba, and perhaps even the west coast of Florida will be on the worst side of the storm. And unless that band sitting over Haiti moves, I'm afraid there will be lots of flooding casualties over there. Poverty is such a problem there that they have chopped down entire forests on mountains to build shelters, and now the mountains have mudslides any time there are heavy rains.
 
Looking at the latest visible satellite loop, it looks as though Dennis is beginning to turn slightly west again after his little northwest jaunt that spared the east coast of Jamaica. He seems to be curving around that island, the little northwest jog a seemingly intentional dodge by the storm as to avoid crossing land. With this erratic motion, we really may not know where Dennis will make landfall until Saturday afternoon/Sunday morning. And even then, don't forget what happened last year with Charley's little last minute turn. The NHC current landfall is dead center over Pensacola/Panama City, Florida; The Weather Channel stands on the middle ground with Mobile, Alabama; and Accuweather predicts Dennis will roar ashore at the mouth of the Mississippi River and possibly submerge New Orleans. With this little northwesterly jaunt Dennis has taken, he may well do it once or twice more once he gets into the central and northern Gulf, and if he does the Big Easy will become the target in Dennis's crosshairs. There are only 200 nautical miles between Pensacola and New Orleans, so it is definitley in the realm of possibility. As for intensity, Dennis may become a minimal Cat 4 after he's passed over Cuba and has the rather warm waters of the Gulf to draw energy from, but will likely make landfall as a moderate/strong Cat 3 due to the shear expected to be present over the northern GoM when he arrives.
 
.

the weather channel is reporting that the pressure has dropped to 962 mb and winds are at 110 mph. also the keys are under mandatory evacuations for all vacationers and residents living in mobile homes.
 
Yeah, for some reason, the weather channel gets faxes in usually 30 minutes before advisory time, so the 2 pm came out a while ago. Looking at an analysis of all atmospheric conditions, everything's a go. With the core so tight, and an extremely large tropical storm wind field serving as a barrier against its surroundings, intensification to category 4 within 20 hours is now a possibility. Since the CDO is all over water, the surrounding land will not bother it for now.
 
"the weather channel gets faxes in usually 30 minutes before advisory time,"

I don't think anyone gets weather bulletins via fax anymore ;> NHC doesn't wait til the hour to issue the products, so they do come across the wire before the actual timestamp.
 
Yeah, when I said "fax" I meant to say "message comes across wire and hooked to a printer." :) The messages are just slower to update on the NHC website, but yeah, they are prepared at NHC well before. 4:00 EDT is the standard time for Hurricane conference calls to NWS offices from Galveston up to Maine, so usually, their 5 pm advisories are determined by 4 pm, unless there are rapid developments.

After analyzing the surface streamlines in the Gulf and Caribbean, it is clear that there are two *surface* troughs that are present. One leading into western Cuba, and the other along the Florida west coast. Dennis is currently following the western one, but if it merges with the one along the Florida west coast, we could see the worst case scenario of a major hurricane paralleling the coast.
 
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