06/21/2005 TALK: High Plains, North and Central Plains

[Mike Hollingshead]

Wasn't sure if I should post this in CO talk and didn't really want to start another one just for this but here it is.

Looking at an interesting outflow boundary in nc NE. I'm starting to wonder if it isn't possible to get another sw moving supercell today on that thing. It is interesting as it is sort of "backwards". It's pushing west into "backed"(actually veered) surface winds and the instability is on the west side. If one loops the Sioux Falls radar from yesterday for the Vermillion storm you can see how it worked then. It looks a bit similar.

Yesterday's loop:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/disp...me=2&duration=4

Hmmm, I really wish today's boundary was either a smidge closer at this point or not pushing west. I suppose I'd better get going to keep it honest.

 

[Edward Ballou]

No offense, but I hope things fizzle out. We took on a lot of water in the storm last night. The rainfall was like that you'd see in the movies: torrential.

Short term forecasts out right now on that line to my west. We'll see what happens. They are definitely some odd storms. I'd like to understand why the interesting features keep popping up.

Plus I have softball tonight and I'd like to play. But if anyone is in the area and things don't look so good. You can come get some ice cream at Zesto's in Brookings

 

[Scott Olson]

It does look similar to yesterday. The westward retreat supported some good convection last night and I enjoyed it more than than the original Clark, CO Supercell. Large complex of storms should be arriving here in the next 2 hours and it looks like the flood warning will be coming back. With 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE supporting some intensifying later today.

-Scott.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Decided not to go. Now is when it goes crazy at the intersection of those two boundaries...south of Valentine in no flow land.

 

[Glen Romine]

Didn't look in detail - but don't like much of what I see for NE boundary intersection. They are really sailing to the west and southwest - but not much deep convection even well behind it - and it drops off the further west you go. SPC mesoanalysis showing a sharp cap strength gradient (per 700 mb temps) toward western NE, so the boundary is moving further away, and lack of surface buoyant cumulus in vis sat combined with mesoanlyses showing no 0-3 km CAPE suggests to me that the boundary intersection will remain inert. The one elevated cell at least somewhat resembling a discrete storm is heading toward a sharply divergent region of 500 mb flow - where mid-level winds drop to near nothing - so the future for it doesn't look very bright.

Looked like better conditions where available well to the northwest though in MT.

Glen

 

[Tony Laubach]

Originally posted by Verne Carlson
The Denver HWO has some wording this morning for the possibility of a weak tornado or funnel clouds with the daily Palmer Ridge activity that we seem to have this time of year:

A STRONG BOUNDARY IS PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WHICH IS INITIATING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY
ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS INCREASING AGAIN ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THE SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS WEAK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...BUT
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL STILL RESULT IN THE STRONGER STORMS
PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THE TORNADO
THREAT IS MINIMAL TODAY...BUT A WEAK TORNADO OR FUNNEL CLOUD CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT AS THE STRONG BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

Verne, I went ahead and moved this into this thread and combined it since a lot of Colorado's development will effect other areas this afternoon into tonight.

 

[Tony Laubach]

SPC had an MD out for Eastern Colorado for mainly heavy rain producing storms with a chance for severe.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1415.html

Will play today much like I did yesterday where I let the storms roll into town and followed them til the water rose. Don't see much chance in funnels or tornado today, at least not enough to warrent me heading too far from town. If something kicks up down south and moves into the Metro area, I'm all over it.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Headed down to Colo Sprgs to see the line of cells that caused street flooding in town move quickly south. Now I'm back home watching a severe warned cell in Jefferson County moving west - yes west!

 

[Jared Mysko]

The Weather Network just showed a nice tube near Lethbridge at 615pm. Nice video...

M.D. OF TABER NEAR TABER AND CRANFORD
8:14 PM MDT TUESDAY 21 JUNE 2005
TORNADO WARNING FOR
M.D. OF TABER NEAR TABER AND CRANFORD CONTINUED

AT 8:01 PM, A LARGE TORNADO WAS SPOTTED APPROXIMATELY HALF WAY
BETWEEN TABER AND VAUXHALL. IT WAS ON THE GROUND FOR ABOUT 2
MINUTES. THIS STORM IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, AND IS
ALSO LIKELY GIVING VERY LARGE HAIL. THE WHOLE STORM COMPLEX IS
TRACKING NORTHEAST AT 30 KM/H TOWARDS VAUXHALL.

Update:
The storm has now skipped and jumped and is landing in Kindersley. Also TWN is saying softball size hail has been reported, EC:"Between 8:40 and 8:55 PM, golf ball to baseball sized hail
was reported just to the northwest of Vauxhall."

Clouds are forming over Saskatoon and it looks like it will hit the city late tonight!

Update 12am:

Echo tops:
http://www.saskatoonscanner.com/Latest-com...12005_952pm.png
Out my window:


http://www.saskatoonscanner.com/june21_2005_002.jpg
http://www.saskatoonscanner.com/june21_2005_003.jpg
http://www.saskatoonscanner.com/june21_2005_004.jpg

City of Saskatoon
1:21 AM CST Wednesday 22 June 2005

Severe thunderstorm warning for
City of Saskatoon issued

At 1:20 AM, golf ball size hail was reported in Saskatoon. A large
complex of storms was also forming northeast of Saskatoon and south
of Prince Albert. All storms are tracking east to northeast.

This is a warning that severe thunderstorms are imminent or occurring
in these regions. Remember that some severe thunderstorms produce
tornadoes. Listen for updated warnings.
At 1:20 AM, golf ball size hail was reported in Saskatoon. A large
complex of storms was also forming northeast of Saskatoon and south
of Prince Albert. All storms are tracking east to northeast.

2:30am Update:
At 2:00 AM, a line of strong thunderstorms stretched from Lucky Lake to Saskatoon, as well as west to east from Saskatoon to Lake Lenore. This storm has had a history of producing damaging winds and large hail. At 11:16 PM, Leader recorded a wind gust of 150 km/h which produced extensive damage. At 12:40 AM, Rosetown recorded a wind Gust of 102 km/h which also produced damage. At 1:50 AM, quarter sized hail was reported in the south part of Saskatoon.






Jared