What would you have done??

[Todd Lemery]

There’s a couple of good points that I strongly agree with. Shane’s point of putting away the data once you’re actively chasing has a lot of merit. Checking radar and velocity on other storms in the area makes sense, but tracking slight differences in the storm environment in different areas isn’t going to help you much and can distract you from what is going on right in your face. As Jeff pointed out, the details of what’s going on in the atmosphere are too small and quickly changing for models to keep up with on a “now” scale.
Storm chasing horror stories are filled with tales of storms dumping tornados right after chasers have left the storm to go after a different one that’s looking pretty sexy. And then the new sexy storm taking a crapper while the previously abandoned storm takes off. If i’m on a storm with clean air around it, i’ll ride it it as long as it doesn’t fall apart. That doesn’t mean that I never bounce around like a pinball st times, it just means that I don’t think it’s particularly wise.
In the end, you could be the greatest Jedi storm chaser that ever lived and you’ll still have days that end with you wanting to punch yourself in the face.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Storm chasing horror stories are filled with tales of storms dumping tornados right after chasers have left the storm to go after a different one that’s looking pretty sexy. And then the new sexy storm taking a crapper while the previously abandoned storm takes off.

May 18, 2013 - Rozel. Been there, done that.

 

[JamesCaruso]

It can go either way. Leave the storm you're on and miss a tornado on your original storm (I know I've done this but can't put my finger on an example right now). Stay with the storm you're on and miss a tornado on another storm (missed Rozel because I followed the very first storm as it sped north; missed second Quinter on I-70 back in 2008 I believe, because I was still futilely chasing first Quinter as it moved north). Deviate from your target area and miss a tornado in your original target area (again I know I have done it but can't name a specific right now). Stick to your target area and miss a tornado somewhere else (missed Canadian TX (2015), Shawnee OK (2013), Chapman (2016) doing this).

This is what makes chasing such a maddening - and wonderful - avocation.


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[brentford]

Bout 99% sure Tim Marshall once said "thou shall not yo yo on storms". In other words stick to a target if ya can and dont bounce around storm to storm!

 

[Paul Knightley]

I think the main thing is to not go out expecting to see a tornado (I'm not suggesting the OP, or others here do - but it's best to be realistic about the chances of success). We have to remember we're trying to get within ~5 miles of a transient atmospheric event, which occurs at the micro-scale, is unresolvable by operational models, and forms because of not yet well-understood dynamics. The fact we bag anything is impressive enough!

I have to say that what Shane says rings true - on the infamous Dodge Day in May '16, we started the day in NW TX with the plan to move north to NW OK, or even into KS. But looking at data, especially mesoanalysis and short-term evolution (increasingly favourable low-level winds in the eastern TX Panhandle - which was also nearer) meant we decided to head west on I-40 towards Shamrock instead of continuing north on the longer journey to S KS. Of course, by the same token we could have noted that the OFB in KS was a very obvious target, but didn't.

The biggest issue that day was not considering the forcing for ascent - yes, the shear parameters were very good over the E TX Panhandle, but low-level convergence beneath what was a not especially exciting upper pattern was lacking in the Panhandle (evidenced by LP-type storms when they formed) compared with the marked LL convergence INVOF the OFB over KS.

Don't ask me about the following day either - where another lack of looking at boundaries cost us the EF4 near Salina!

 

[Jeff House]

Oh we did much worse...

....Don't ask me about the following day either - where another lack of looking at boundaries cost us the EF4 near Salina!

After seeing Woodward and Dodge City we got a little over confident. Wanted to drink beer (after chase) with a non-chaser buddy in Wichita at Twin Peaks, lol. So, we talked ourselves into Butler County over the I-70 triple point. Oh the strong backed surface winds, blah blah blah. Talk about thinking with the wrong head!

 

[JamesCaruso]

Oh we did much worse...


After seeing Woodward and Dodge City we got a little over confident. Wanted to drink beer (after chase) with a non-chaser buddy in Wichita at Twin Peaks, lol. So, we talked ourselves into Butler County over the I-70 triple point. Oh the strong backed surface winds, blah blah blah. Talk about thinking with the wrong head!

Jeff, WOW, I had almost the same exact mindset that day! So glad to learn I am not the only one that thinks like this while chasing sometimes! We had just seen DDC the day before. I remember the ICT area was somewhat conditional on the Salina/Chapman day, we were almost going to take the day off, but figured what the hell, ICT is not that far from where we were near DDC, and if we don’t see anything we can enjoy our first sit down dinner and drinks at a nice downtown Wichita restaurant after 5 nights on the road. That was the original thinking when we set out that day, and I’m sure that influenced us not to deviate and run after the first storm that popped up north, which at the time during our drive was 85 miles away. Seeing that a more-experienced chaser friend was also favoring the southern target and sitting tight (although at the time he was somewhat north of us and later did break away to catch Chapman) and seeing plenty of other chasers in the ICT area including Timmer, as well as the general sense that we couldn’t possibly see anything anywhere that was as good as we had the day before, and we were destined for failure that day. Never before has chaser elation spun 180 degrees to chaser regret within just 24 hours.


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[Jeff Duda]

Let's keep this thread on-topic, please.

 

[Jeff House]

Last two posts are on topic, what could we have done better. Such mixed chase-cations are subject to these errors that we should avoid.