06/09/07 FCST: TX/NM/CO/OK/KS/NE/SD

[Warren Faidley]

SPC has area outlooked for SVR. SW upper flow and return RH noted. I'm concerned about the post-frontal air mass which has been a problem of late with tornadogenisis. Could be a good day if recovery takes place -- might happen as it's getting late in the spring season. Could have another shot on Sunday and Monday in the region.

Warren

 

[Bill Hark]

I think there may be some isolated supercells. There is 30 to 40 flow mainly from the west across Kansas and Nebraska with a slight SW component in eastern Colorado/far western Kansas at 25 using the NAM. The GFS shows the better flow in Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The 55 to 60 dewpoints in western Kansas are sufficient. I am concerned about the cap. Two areas of interest include Elkhart or for better flow, Yuma. Overall, the situation is very marginal. I was hoping to fly out for a chase on Saturday but prospects have changed significantly from several days ago. I probably wouldn't bother chasing unless I was already near they areas. I like early next week better.

Bill Hark

 

[Mark Blue]

My wife and I are considering chasing this weekend. Coming from Denver it would be a straight shot down either I-70 or I-76 depending on whether we would be going to KS or NE. Based on the forecasted lee troughing developing in response to the upper level low that is on the way, I'm hoping a chunk of energy will kick out tomorrow afternoon and bump up against the moisture that will be struggling to return to the plains. If storms can initiate along the higher terrain of eastern CO and move into the more unstable environment along the KS/CO border and into SW NE, there may be at least a glimmer of hope for some action, but we'll have to see what it looks like tomorrow morning before we commit to blowing off our weekend chores to go chasing marginal prospects. However, it is late spring as was pointed out in the initial post, so anything can happen! Fingers crossed...

 

[Warren Faidley]

Was working my way back to Tucson this morning from Alamogordo, NM only to wake up to a 5% SPC tornado prob. in the area. Could be interesting later if DP"s go a little higher, especially with the mountains around to get things going. Makes an otherwise boring west drive a little more interesting.

Warren

 

[bill mudd]

currently staying in Santa Fe,NM

I'd still say best chances will be in the Carlsbad/Hobbs/Roswell area if anyone is down there it could hold a couple of surprises
I'll hold tight here and hope for some orographic action off the mountains on the north side of the risk area