06/09/05 TALK: High Plains

[Karen Politte]

I can't remember whether I look at 850mb or 700mb for CAP problems - but does the 850mb RUC prog of +30oF in SW KS at 0Z today worry anyone?

KR

No. Take a look at the DDC sounding. You can see that the base of the capping inversion as of this morning is near 810 mb, so warm temps below this suggest better potential to break the cap. In fact, if you find 30 C (not F) at 850 mb, and follow a dry adiabat back to where it intersects the sounding - you find no cap at all. Normally, the 700 mb temps are use dto evaluate cap strength during the summer months, and partiicularly as you get further west where surface pressures are progressively closer to 850 mb.

Glen

Well - I MEANT oC and not of. Had a brain fart, that's all. Well - that, and this country's system of interchanding units of temp. measurement with hiehgt is really screwy, IMO.

KR

 

[bill mudd]

any target areas in N/W Kansas anyone likes? Love to get a chase in today? driving from Denver so....

 

[Verne Carlson]

Goodland to Colby looks like a good starting point. There's wifi available in both towns as well. Good look to all out today and stay safe!

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase target for today, June 9

Target:
20 mi. NE of Colby, KS.

Timing:
5 PM CDT.

Storm type:
Isolated supercells with hail to golf ball size and a small chance for
tornadoes.

Discussion:
Developing low pressure in SERN CO with a warm front extending EWRD S of I-70 along with an outflow boundary along a Bird City - Scott City line will provide the focus for severe weather this afternoon as a strong impulse seen in WV imagery surges EWRD and a dryline mixed EWRD to near US-83 by late afternoon. Storms will initiate in the front range by mid-afternoon and develop/propagate EWRD towards the more capped but highly unstable target area.

- bill

 

[Andrea Griffa]

From latest Ruc run there's a good possibility also for Tx Panhandle now: before it gave no precipitations, now it gives convective precipitations for those zones. This is probably the right choice, and with the strong cap and that strong shear there are good chances for tornadoes.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/RUC/SP/ruc...P_0_cprec_9.gif

 

[John Gnuechtel]

I'm going with Dodge City today. Up north might be better, but I really would like to take a crack at something more isolated on the dryline. Now I just need the patience to wait it out when convection inevitably starts earlier up north. I'm in Newton now, so I should get there in a few hours. Here's hoping I can track down some wi/fi , because cell data access for me ends right here at I-35. On well!

 

[Mike Johnston]

Based on trends at the noon hour, I would target the very SE extent of the moderate risk area - say around Woodward, OK - today. Dry line punch shaping up just to the W, and close enough to the surface low to be influenced w/ backed surface winds. In addition, strongest axis of SB CAPE and lowest CIN nosing northward into this area and in decent proximity to some low level helicity. Support from 500mb flow from the SW, albeit not too strong yet at 25kt but RUC shows increasing to 30 to 40kts later this afternoon. Not overly concerned about too early of initiation (via outflow boundary - see current MCD) disrupting this setup, but bears watching.

Another area of interest would be along I-70 corridor between Colby and Hays, KS. Satellite shows gravity waves from MCS further east coming over this area, which could make for some pressure perturbations. Will need to recover some juice, but looks like that is ongoing. Surface winds backing and moisture convergence just now showing signs of setting up over NW KS.

This is all virtual for me today, so if anyone out in the area stuck without a nowcaster, pm me and I will be available.

 

[Jay McCoy]

The dryline is bulging east from amarillo so I like due east on I-40. Think the RUC has the right idea. I will be heading out towards Shamrock in the next hour with a stop at the rest stop west of alanreed for free wi-fi. Always like it when Texas supplies the wi-fi.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Good call Jay, hope to see ya' again out there ~ Shamrock.

 

[Glen Romine]

The dryline is bulging east from amarillo so I like due east on I-40.

Jay, where do you see this? I'm looking at the tx mesonet plot - and I don't see a bulge on I-40 - but instead along the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle state line - with a eastward bulge toward Slapout -

http://mesonet.tamu.edu/tmp/TxMeso11183418272404.png

SPC mesoscale analysis seems to agree

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/s1/mcon.gif

Forecasters also seem most interested in this same area:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/0506091833.acus11.html

I still think you are much better off further north.

Glen

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Very glad west side of OB has stalled invof DDC. Construciton on CO 71 southbound slowed me badly; TX PH target would have been impossible. Currently 90 miles north DDC and intend to to stay just east of OB/DL intersection. Wondering what their merger (as mentioned in MD) further north does for lift; interesting to consider. Much prefer idea of init on DL, movement off eastward, then storms intersecting OB nearer maturity. So will likely play as far south as possible to get some seperation between boundaries, depending on DL movement of course.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Tornado watch issued for ok/txpandhandles and all of western ks into sw nebraska. If anyone needs a nowcaster, pm me. It's my turn to return the favor. Good luck all.

 

[bill mudd]

nearing goodland and my radar is without guidance - looks to be a favorable dryline if initiation isnt too late.....
is the Colby target still a go?

 

[Glen Romine]

Much prefer idea of init on DL, movement off eastward, then storms intersecting OB nearer maturity. So will likely play as far south as possible to get some seperation between boundaries, depending on DL movement of course.

I think this is a logical thought process - but would note that today the higher instability is on the east side of the outflow boundary - not west of it - so storms should actually do better thermodynamically after crossing. Note the nose of 70+ dewpoints - I'd position myself in that and hope for the best. I think Englewood would be a nice place to wait for a storm about now.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Wow, current obs and mesoanaly showing quite a favorable situation in parts of western KS, nw OK, and the TX/OK panhandles. Strong insolation behind the OFB has resulted in the development of extreme instability from northwestern KS southward. Current look at Haviland profiler in sw KS shows a very favorable low-level shear profile, with 45-55kts near 850mb. SPC mesoanaly isn't reall picking up on this, as I'd guesstimate that the 0-3km SRH from haviland is in the 300-400 m2/s2 range. As CAPEs climb about 4000j/kg, and winds remained backed to the east of the OFB, things could get very interesting very quickly. The tornado threat is definately present today, though I think the relatively weak mid-upper level flow will preclude the development of long-lasting, strong tornadoes. If not for that, I think we'd have a strong tornado day on our hands.