06/09/05 TALK: High Plains

[Verne Carlson]

Thursday looks like a similar setup to last thursday (6/02) for the high plains of CO. With a frontal boundary draped across the front range, easterly low level flow and southwesterly upper flow expect supercells along I-70 again. Helicity is maximized right over Limon, CO. Plus SPC has a hatched 25% risk for the CO/NE/KS area. Making plans now to be out on the plains thursday!

 

[Jonathan Merage]

Thanks for starting this one, Verne! I was wondering when one of the moderators would!
I agree on the 9th showing potential for some MORE magical upslope action as ETA/NAM's consistently been forecasting a tongue of moisture to draw back into NE CO, with sfc. dews in the low-mid 50s back to DEN by Noon & solid mid-50s over far NE CO by tomorrow evening. This setup does look very similar to 6/2, where CAPEs over w/central KS reached the mid 4000 j/kg range by mid-afternoon & deep moisture pooled over the area just e. of the dryline. All the upper support that day held back west (as it seems to again for Thurs) & the cap held strong over KS & NE. ETA forecasts a somewhat diffuse, mixed-out DL over w. KS (arcing eastward from Colby straight down thru OK & TX panhandles (possible dry punch:?: ). 850 temps @ 25-30C should keep anything from firing out there, & with almost no upper support, any storms that do fire over w. KS will NOT be sustained. So again, we're hinging on just enough low-mid level moisture edging westward & possible DCVZ to provide us with Day 3 of incredible sculpted, stacked-plates motherships!! 8)
Looking forward to the next couple ETA runs & 0600 SWODY-1 (see if they acknowledge the wonderful Denver swirl this time, LOL!)
Jon M.

 

[Verne Carlson]

From the Goodland HWO:

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP...PRODUCING STRONG
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE TRI STATE REGION. A WARM
FRONT AND DRY LINE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...IN ADDITION TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO...WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES BOTH DAYS.

 

[bill mudd]

just stepped off the plane in Denver - after seeing TWC red stamp N/E CO (almost let out a cheer on board) - Id be real happy with a mother ship after months of SDS...
is Cingular cell service good there?
anyone available for a data nowcast backup please feel free to I/M me!
good luck!

 

[nickgrillo]

I reviewed the latest NAM run, and I am starting to like SC NE alot more, now. I (along with Kurt Hulst and Dan Robinson) have been in Ogallala, NE for the better part of the afternoon, and we're currently in a Super 8 over here. We probably will end up heading east of Ogallala tomorrow, but, won't know for sure until morning, of course...

 

[Alex Lamers]

Moderate Risk just posted for portions of Wrn KS...SW NE...OK/TX Panhandles.

I was hoping for higher than Minimal Risk around here today. SBCAPES > 3000 j/kg and a bit better effective shear today. Maybe we'll get upgraded at 1630/2000Z.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[nickgrillo]

I am still in Ogallala with Dan and Kurt, and I really like SC-ish NE for today, therefore, we'll probably be heading S-SE of where we are now...

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Moderate Risk just posted for portions of Wrn KS...SW NE...OK/TX Panhandles.

I was hoping for higher than Minimal Risk around here today. SBCAPES > 3000 j/kg and a bit better effective shear today. Maybe we'll get upgraded at 1630/2000Z.

...Alex Lamers...

It's the first time this year I see high cape(>6000) and high helicity in the same place from Ruc model.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/RUC/SP/ruc..._3km_hel_12.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/RUC/SP/ruc...P_0_cape_12.gif

Explosive setup today: my favourite zones are between McCook and kearney.
Big setup also along the dryline further south in KS but there's too much high temperature at 850hpa: huge cap to brake...
Eta gives less temperature at 850 in agreement with ruc for TX panahmdle along the dry line: there could be something good as well if convection could develop(high deep layer shear and very nice low level jet) :wink:

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Yeah, that's why I am convincing the others to stay in NE for today...

Yes Nick..Sure convection in NE but TX Panhandle? It looks great as well(from ETA) but it is sufficient that models anticipate warm advection at 850 hpa and it could form a thermonuclear cap...I really don't know what to do....
This is ETA thinking:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/SP/eta...P_0_prec_12.gif

 

[Tony Laubach]

Glancing over today's runs, I definately would be shooting a bit further south and east than I would've originally planned. Reading Amos's Blog, he says he's gonna race down into the Texas Panhandles from Sterling, Colorado for today. While I don't blame him for abandoning Northeastern Colorado, I think I would be shooting more for Southwest Kansas and seeing from there. I would be targeting the OK Panhandle as my number 1 choice today; and I'll post my forecast for that in the appropiate thread, but if I were to chase today, that's where I'd be heading due to a combination of setup and time.

 

[Glen Romine]

.... I think I would be shooting more for Southwest Kansas and seeing from there.

Tend to agree - though I'm thinking more along the lines of Liberal, so kinda close to the OK panhandle region. Not sure Pampa isn't too far south given the current lack of southward motion of the outflow. NE looks pretty bad as of now - not very confident of the RUC forecast for improvement there later. Anyone notice the 12Z instability at DDC? Wow!

Glen

 

[Philip Flory]

I would agree with a Liberal-Pampa target this afternoon, if convection can initiate. NE via the RUC looks like a whole lot of fun, we'll see how that all works out.

 

[Karen Politte]

I can't remember whether I look at 850mb or 700mb for CAP problems - but does the 850mb RUC prog of +30oC in SW KS at 0Z today worry anyone?

KR

 

[Glen Romine]

I can't remember whether I look at 850mb or 700mb for CAP problems - but does the 850mb RUC prog of +30oF in SW KS at 0Z today worry anyone?

KR

No. Take a look at the DDC sounding. You can see that the base of the capping inversion as of this morning is near 810 mb, so warm temps below this suggest better potential to break the cap. In fact, if you find 30 C (not F) at 850 mb, and follow a dry adiabat back to where it intersects the sounding - you find no cap at all. Normally, the 700 mb temps are use dto evaluate cap strength during the summer months, and partiicularly as you get further west where surface pressures are progressively closer to 850 mb.

Glen

 

[Tony Laubach]

I can't remember whether I look at 850mb or 700mb for CAP problems - but does the 850mb RUC prog of +30oF in SW KS at 0Z today worry anyone?

KR

Typically the surface in the High Plains is very close to 850mb. Hard to evaluate a cap so close to the ground in these areas... 700mb doesn't look that bad at all and I wouldn't be worried about that!