06/09/05 TALK: High Plains

Thursday looks like a similar setup to last thursday (6/02) for the high plains of CO. With a frontal boundary draped across the front range, easterly low level flow and southwesterly upper flow expect supercells along I-70 again. Helicity is maximized right over Limon, CO. Plus SPC has a hatched 25% risk for the CO/NE/KS area. Making plans now to be out on the plains thursday! :D
 
Thanks for starting this one, Verne! I was wondering when one of the moderators would! :)
I agree on the 9th showing potential for some MORE magical upslope action as ETA/NAM's consistently been forecasting a tongue of moisture to draw back into NE CO, with sfc. dews in the low-mid 50s back to DEN by Noon & solid mid-50s over far NE CO by tomorrow evening. This setup does look very similar to 6/2, where CAPEs over w/central KS reached the mid 4000 j/kg range by mid-afternoon & deep moisture pooled over the area just e. of the dryline. All the upper support that day held back west (as it seems to again for Thurs) & the cap held strong over KS & NE. ETA forecasts a somewhat diffuse, mixed-out DL over w. KS (arcing eastward from Colby straight down thru OK & TX panhandles (possible dry punch:?: ). 850 temps @ 25-30C should keep anything from firing out there, & with almost no upper support, any storms that do fire over w. KS will NOT be sustained. So again, we're hinging on just enough low-mid level moisture edging westward & possible DCVZ to provide us with Day 3 of incredible sculpted, stacked-plates motherships!! 8)
Looking forward to the next couple ETA runs & 0600 SWODY-1 (see if they acknowledge the wonderful Denver swirl this time, LOL!)
Jon M.
 
From the Goodland HWO:

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP...PRODUCING STRONG
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE TRI STATE REGION. A WARM
FRONT AND DRY LINE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...IN ADDITION TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO...WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES BOTH DAYS.
 
just stepped off the plane in Denver - after seeing TWC red stamp N/E CO (almost let out a cheer on board) - Id be real happy with a mother ship after months of SDS...
is Cingular cell service good there?
anyone available for a data nowcast backup please feel free to I/M me!
good luck!
 
I reviewed the latest NAM run, and I am starting to like SC NE alot more, now. I (along with Kurt Hulst and Dan Robinson) have been in Ogallala, NE for the better part of the afternoon, and we're currently in a Super 8 over here. We probably will end up heading east of Ogallala tomorrow, but, won't know for sure until morning, of course...
 
Moderate Risk just posted for portions of Wrn KS...SW NE...OK/TX Panhandles.

I was hoping for higher than Minimal Risk around here today. SBCAPES > 3000 j/kg and a bit better effective shear today. Maybe we'll get upgraded at 1630/2000Z.

...Alex Lamers...
 
I am still in Ogallala with Dan and Kurt, and I really like SC-ish NE for today, therefore, we'll probably be heading S-SE of where we are now...
 
Moderate Risk just posted for portions of Wrn KS...SW NE...OK/TX Panhandles.

I was hoping for higher than Minimal Risk around here today. SBCAPES > 3000 j/kg and a bit better effective shear today. Maybe we'll get upgraded at 1630/2000Z.

...Alex Lamers...

It's the first time this year I see high cape(>6000) and high helicity in the same place from Ruc model.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/RUC/SP/ruc..._3km_hel_12.gif

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/RUC/SP/ruc...P_0_cape_12.gif

Explosive setup today: my favourite zones are between McCook and kearney.
Big setup also along the dryline further south in KS but there's too much high temperature at 850hpa: huge cap to brake...
Eta gives less temperature at 850 in agreement with ruc for TX panahmdle along the dry line: there could be something good as well if convection could develop(high deep layer shear and very nice low level jet) :wink:
 
Glancing over today's runs, I definately would be shooting a bit further south and east than I would've originally planned. Reading Amos's Blog, he says he's gonna race down into the Texas Panhandles from Sterling, Colorado for today. While I don't blame him for abandoning Northeastern Colorado, I think I would be shooting more for Southwest Kansas and seeing from there. I would be targeting the OK Panhandle as my number 1 choice today; and I'll post my forecast for that in the appropiate thread, but if I were to chase today, that's where I'd be heading due to a combination of setup and time.
 
.... I think I would be shooting more for Southwest Kansas and seeing from there.

Tend to agree - though I'm thinking more along the lines of Liberal, so kinda close to the OK panhandle region. Not sure Pampa isn't too far south given the current lack of southward motion of the outflow. NE looks pretty bad as of now - not very confident of the RUC forecast for improvement there later. Anyone notice the 12Z instability at DDC? Wow!

Glen
 
I would agree with a Liberal-Pampa target this afternoon, if convection can initiate. NE via the RUC looks like a whole lot of fun, we'll see how that all works out.
 
I can't remember whether I look at 850mb or 700mb for CAP problems - but does the 850mb RUC prog of +30oC in SW KS at 0Z today worry anyone?

KR
 
I can't remember whether I look at 850mb or 700mb for CAP problems - but does the 850mb RUC prog of +30oF in SW KS at 0Z today worry anyone?

KR

No. Take a look at the DDC sounding. You can see that the base of the capping inversion as of this morning is near 810 mb, so warm temps below this suggest better potential to break the cap. In fact, if you find 30 C (not F) at 850 mb, and follow a dry adiabat back to where it intersects the sounding - you find no cap at all. Normally, the 700 mb temps are use dto evaluate cap strength during the summer months, and partiicularly as you get further west where surface pressures are progressively closer to 850 mb.

Glen
 
I can't remember whether I look at 850mb or 700mb for CAP problems - but does the 850mb RUC prog of +30oF in SW KS at 0Z today worry anyone?

KR

Typically the surface in the High Plains is very close to 850mb. Hard to evaluate a cap so close to the ground in these areas... 700mb doesn't look that bad at all and I wouldn't be worried about that! :D
 
I can't remember whether I look at 850mb or 700mb for CAP problems - but does the 850mb RUC prog of +30oF in SW KS at 0Z today worry anyone?

KR

No. Take a look at the DDC sounding. You can see that the base of the capping inversion as of this morning is near 810 mb, so warm temps below this suggest better potential to break the cap. In fact, if you find 30 C (not F) at 850 mb, and follow a dry adiabat back to where it intersects the sounding - you find no cap at all. Normally, the 700 mb temps are use dto evaluate cap strength during the summer months, and partiicularly as you get further west where surface pressures are progressively closer to 850 mb.

Glen

Well - I MEANT oC and not of. Had a brain fart, that's all. Well - that, and this country's system of interchanding units of temp. measurement with hiehgt is really screwy, IMO.

KR
 
Goodland to Colby looks like a good starting point. There's wifi available in both towns as well. Good look to all out today and stay safe! :)
 
Chase target for today, June 9

Target:
20 mi. NE of Colby, KS.

Timing:
5 PM CDT.

Storm type:
Isolated supercells with hail to golf ball size and a small chance for
tornadoes.

Discussion:
Developing low pressure in SERN CO with a warm front extending EWRD S of I-70 along with an outflow boundary along a Bird City - Scott City line will provide the focus for severe weather this afternoon as a strong impulse seen in WV imagery surges EWRD and a dryline mixed EWRD to near US-83 by late afternoon. Storms will initiate in the front range by mid-afternoon and develop/propagate EWRD towards the more capped but highly unstable target area.

- bill
 
I'm going with Dodge City today. Up north might be better, but I really would like to take a crack at something more isolated on the dryline. Now I just need the patience to wait it out when convection inevitably starts earlier up north. I'm in Newton now, so I should get there in a few hours. Here's hoping I can track down some wi/fi , because cell data access for me ends right here at I-35. On well!
 
Based on trends at the noon hour, I would target the very SE extent of the moderate risk area - say around Woodward, OK - today. Dry line punch shaping up just to the W, and close enough to the surface low to be influenced w/ backed surface winds. In addition, strongest axis of SB CAPE and lowest CIN nosing northward into this area and in decent proximity to some low level helicity. Support from 500mb flow from the SW, albeit not too strong yet at 25kt but RUC shows increasing to 30 to 40kts later this afternoon. Not overly concerned about too early of initiation (via outflow boundary - see current MCD) disrupting this setup, but bears watching.

Another area of interest would be along I-70 corridor between Colby and Hays, KS. Satellite shows gravity waves from MCS further east coming over this area, which could make for some pressure perturbations. Will need to recover some juice, but looks like that is ongoing. Surface winds backing and moisture convergence just now showing signs of setting up over NW KS.

This is all virtual for me today, so if anyone out in the area stuck without a nowcaster, pm me and I will be available.
 
The dryline is bulging east from amarillo so I like due east on I-40. Think the RUC has the right idea. I will be heading out towards Shamrock in the next hour with a stop at the rest stop west of alanreed for free wi-fi. Always like it when Texas supplies the wi-fi.
 
The dryline is bulging east from amarillo so I like due east on I-40.

Jay, where do you see this? I'm looking at the tx mesonet plot - and I don't see a bulge on I-40 - but instead along the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle state line - with a eastward bulge toward Slapout -

http://mesonet.tamu.edu/tmp/TxMeso11183418272404.png

SPC mesoscale analysis seems to agree

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/s1/mcon.gif

Forecasters also seem most interested in this same area:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/0506091833.acus11.html

I still think you are much better off further north.

Glen
 
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