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05/21/05: TALK: KS/NE/IA

I'll be leaving Denver for I-80 between Grand Island and York, Nebraska at 6am MDT tomorrow. Will refine my target as the evening and morning progresses; still awaiting final word on the Colorado Crew to see whom will be caravaning out on this marathon chase! Looks good tomorrow!
 
I will also be leaving tomorrow morning for a target area of Grand Island, Nebraska. Free Wi-Fi at the Bosselman's Travel Center at I-80 and US-281. Activity will develop in Nebraska before it does in Kansas, and the chasing terrain near Grand Island is absolutely wonderful, would love to chase the area again! Grand Island has been good to be 2 Saturday's ago, and hopefully it will do a good job again!
 
hopefully you guys get a repeat of the crazy stack of plates that many had photographed recently near Grand Island. Good luck to all and I hope to see some of you out there!
 
Depending on the next NAM run, we might position ourselves near or around Nebraska City AGAIN. To shoot in any direction needed. Great WIFI at truckstop there FYI. Just need to stay out of KC metro area mess. Let's hope things are west of the river and not in atchison and doniphan counties, due to their poor road networks.
 
As of current data my target is Manhattan, KS. Everything I like is there - instability, moisture, lift. And the added bonus is the perfect cap. We might be waiting til 7pm for initiation, but it will happen (if current data verifies). I can say with confidence this has been the easiest forecast of the year for me thus far.
 
I am not sure than Kansas has enough of a "sure thing" going for it to chase there. Discrete cells possible? Yeah... but I think that storms will stay fairly discrete further north as well. You will also have access to better instability and lower LCLs, which is always good.
I would say that SW of Omaha just a little bit would be a nice place to start... maybe near Lincoln. It would be nice for the big storms to form a bit closer to Iowa so they can be under lower LCLs and higher shear, but I think it should turn out at least fairly decent in eastern Nebraska.
 
I am going to hold off until tomorrow morning to decide where to go. I am sure if I named a city now it would change anyways. I am leaning towards setting up near the Kansas/Nebraska border. I will stop in Salina or Topeka for data and pick a target from there. I am thinking it will be better to be too far South than too far North given storm motion. Good luck to everyone tomorrow.
 
I have shifted my target east to the triangle of the Omaha/Lincoln/Nebraska City areas. Best combination of 0-3km helicity, lower LCL's, SBCAPE/MLCAPE, weaker CAP, and earliest storm initiation make the area prime for severe storm development.

Looks like Holly and I will see some of you over at the Sapp Bros. truck stop over off of I-29.
 
Remember: only a few select places to cross the MO river (nebraska city, plattsmouth $$$, and omaha congestion) that's if need be. Gonna bail around 11-12 hopefully, if crew gets rounded up quick enough. Good luck to all, let's hope this pans out. No whammy.
 
I want to say way nw IA now, possibly into sw MN. Not thinking that crashing mcs is going to happen like was thought. If you ignore instability progs up there, there is quite the shear profile. Starting to fear we might have to chase on the cold front. There are certain areas that like to get 'meso lows' and one of those is sc NE under any strong heating. This can push a dl bulge out a bit and kick off an isolated storm or two if it happens. I guess I'm almost favoring that even if the flow is less and it will likely have a huge temp/td spread. So I guess I can see two areas, one in se SD, nw IA, sw MN and the other in sc NE.

If anything likes to change the day of compared to what the models are saying it is usually where the instability ends up. Any sort of boundary is in nw IA and the instability is able to get up there that is cerainly where I'll be.

Ignore instability progs and look at this hodo. Actually I guess there IS instability there but nothing like places further w. I just love the hodo and the possibilities. LCLs much lower there as well. Getting a boundary over there will be the hard part.

http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?mo...&STATIONID=kfod
 
Well... I'm going along with Mike on this one.

Not only am I liking this area due to the forecast, but this will be a very local chase for me, which I'm going to love!!

That mesoscale that was suggested be moving through this area early tomorrow should stay north. This will allow nice clear skies hopefully, with dewpoints at least at 60 with temps in the upper 70s. SRH's are nice, decent instability.. And even the SPC is saying the liklihood of discrete cells is best from sw MN southward...

I'm still not sure on my chasing due to graduation... But, it keeps looking more and more like I'm headin' out!

BTW - Anybody interested in meeting up and chasing in northwest Iowa (I know the roads very well) leave me a PM and I hope to get back to you if I will be able to chase. Thanks
 
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