Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase Target for Sunday, May 10
Chase target:
Andrews, TX (32 miles north of Odessa).
Timing and storm mode:
Isolated high-based storms will fire after 7 PM CDT. While significant severe WX is not expected, isolated supercells may provide photogenic storm structure.
Discussion:
The recent zonal mid-level flow will give way to low-amplitude ridging over the central Plains and Rockies as an upper-low pushes slowly S in the Pacific and troughing increases in the WRN CONUS. Further E, low-amplitude troughing will shift SLY E into the Atlantic. At the SFC, return flow will increase along the WRN extent of the trailing CF over WRN TX. Flow at the SFC will remain weak along with a lack of sources of focus. Winds will switch back to the SE as the front washes out, with a resulting upslope component. Capping will be strong, with a stout inversion at 800mb beneath steep mid-level lapse rates approaching 9C/km, as noted on FCST soundings. Additionally, LLVL clouds will persist along and N of I-20 in TX throughout the period; resulting in differential heating across the boundary. Isolated storms should fire as assent from a subtle S/WV increases after 01Z. SFC-3km hodograph curvatures will increase after 02Z as an H8 LLJ strengthens to 25 kts.
- Bill
KD0DJG
www.twistertoursusa.com
9:15 PM CDT, 05/09/09
Chase target:
Andrews, TX (32 miles north of Odessa).
Timing and storm mode:
Isolated high-based storms will fire after 7 PM CDT. While significant severe WX is not expected, isolated supercells may provide photogenic storm structure.
Discussion:
The recent zonal mid-level flow will give way to low-amplitude ridging over the central Plains and Rockies as an upper-low pushes slowly S in the Pacific and troughing increases in the WRN CONUS. Further E, low-amplitude troughing will shift SLY E into the Atlantic. At the SFC, return flow will increase along the WRN extent of the trailing CF over WRN TX. Flow at the SFC will remain weak along with a lack of sources of focus. Winds will switch back to the SE as the front washes out, with a resulting upslope component. Capping will be strong, with a stout inversion at 800mb beneath steep mid-level lapse rates approaching 9C/km, as noted on FCST soundings. Additionally, LLVL clouds will persist along and N of I-20 in TX throughout the period; resulting in differential heating across the boundary. Isolated storms should fire as assent from a subtle S/WV increases after 01Z. SFC-3km hodograph curvatures will increase after 02Z as an H8 LLJ strengthens to 25 kts.
- Bill
KD0DJG
www.twistertoursusa.com
9:15 PM CDT, 05/09/09