05/10/04 FCST: NE, CO, WY, SD, KS

SPC's Day 2 Outlook paints a bulls-eye over the entire area of Western Nebraska with a 25% line around that, clipping NE Colorado, far Western Wyoming, SE South Dakota, and NW Kansas. Here's their take on things as of 12:30 MDT.

...WRN HIGH PLAINS...
COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30 KT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WY. UPPER 50 AND LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT NWWD INTO THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WLY AT ONLY 25-30 KT...STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL RESULT IN 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL LARGE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD ALSO FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO RESULT IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB AND KS.

...CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ONGOING CONVECTION MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/MO IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIFT CAP WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY INDICATES A THREAT FOR HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR INDICATE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DARK.

Monday is my big finals day, which will end right at or before 3pm MDT. I could be close to my priliminary target city of Sidney, NE around or before 6pm. I don't know if the storms can hold off that long, though.. will have to check into initiation times and figure out. None of the area forecast discussions are mentioning times, but I would guess most things will fire long before I can make it out.. will have to watch closely.
 
Yeah! The 0000Z Tues ETA shows 25knot backed winds and high Dewpoint and Cape nosing in along the CO/NE border.

I've already got an email out to my boss asking for a 1/2 day vacation. Hope to get up to the Sidney NE area as well around 2:00pm for initiation!
:)
 
Yes, tomorrow looks like a really good chase day to me. Something about ops out west that are quite tempting to those of us in the east. What sucks is that instate chasing for me can be 7 hours away! This is like me driving to the OKC area....lol. Looks like an early morning. Good luck to all.
 
Assuming I can get out of my work shift tomorrow night, I'm going to be pushing it close.. I have a final at 1p which could go as far as 2:30, which means I won't be on the road til around 3p. What my initial plan is; shoot up I-76 to Sterling, then get off and jump up US-138 to CO-113, catching that north into Sidney, NE. I'm hoping I can get up there around 5:30 at the latest; so I imagine things will be ongoing by the time I arrive.

Will hope for coverage for work and hopefully will be up in time. We'll see what happens. Hard to pass up such a close chase! 8)
 
Good Morning all you High Plains Chasers..

Today looks like it'll be a good day to make our High Plains debute!

SPC continues to hold a SLIGHT RISK over the area from NE Colorado out into Kansas, Nebraska, S. Dakota, and Wyoming with a 2% tornado prob straddling the WY/NE border starting at the Colorado border and going northward. I am in agreement with the area forecasters in Denver that a valid threat for tornadoes exists along a convergence zone expected to set up from Denver northeastward (basically along I-76), so I imagine SPC will include that area in the 2%, maybe a 5% upgrade for already mentioned areas.

I am still waiting word on work, so it'll be a last second move for me after completion of my last final, but as soon as that happens, I'm on my way northward. I'm going to wait til later to decide whether to shoot straight north on I-25, or tackle the I-76 corridor northeast. My target of Sidney may be a bit too far east, so will also adjust that.

Anyone out and about, let me know.. I'll be on HAM simplex 146.550MHz throughout most of the trip. Also will have my cell phone with me; feel free to get in touch with me there (email/IM me for phone #). Good luck!
 
SPC has moved the 2% risk of tornadoes down to include NE CO but I still like the wind profiles around the WY/NE border. I will be heading up that way at 1:00pm and hope to hang out somewhere north-east of Cheyenne.
Staying west of the clouds in the tri-state.

Good luck to everyone! Maybe we'll see some T's!
 
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