Tony Laubach
EF5
SPC's Day 2 Outlook paints a bulls-eye over the entire area of Western Nebraska with a 25% line around that, clipping NE Colorado, far Western Wyoming, SE South Dakota, and NW Kansas. Here's their take on things as of 12:30 MDT.
...WRN HIGH PLAINS...
COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30 KT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WY. UPPER 50 AND LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT NWWD INTO THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WLY AT ONLY 25-30 KT...STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL RESULT IN 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL LARGE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD ALSO FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO RESULT IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB AND KS.
...CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ONGOING CONVECTION MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/MO IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIFT CAP WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY INDICATES A THREAT FOR HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR INDICATE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DARK.
Monday is my big finals day, which will end right at or before 3pm MDT. I could be close to my priliminary target city of Sidney, NE around or before 6pm. I don't know if the storms can hold off that long, though.. will have to check into initiation times and figure out. None of the area forecast discussions are mentioning times, but I would guess most things will fire long before I can make it out.. will have to watch closely.
...WRN HIGH PLAINS...
COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 20 TO 30 KT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WY. UPPER 50 AND LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT NWWD INTO THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WLY AT ONLY 25-30 KT...STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL RESULT IN 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL LARGE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD ALSO FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO RESULT IN STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB AND KS.
...CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ONGOING CONVECTION MAY BE LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/MO IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIFT CAP WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY INDICATES A THREAT FOR HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. THE LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR INDICATE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DARK.
Monday is my big finals day, which will end right at or before 3pm MDT. I could be close to my priliminary target city of Sidney, NE around or before 6pm. I don't know if the storms can hold off that long, though.. will have to check into initiation times and figure out. None of the area forecast discussions are mentioning times, but I would guess most things will fire long before I can make it out.. will have to watch closely.
