Mike Johnston
EF5
OK, there appears to be a workable forecast along an axis from SW NE southeastward to NE KS, such that consideration of a Friday chase is indicated. Surface lifting feature is still a bit nebulous to pin down, but target possibilities, from W to E, include: 1) Lexington, NE, where 850mb temp advection pools, along with SRH bullseye of 250 m2s2, 2) Concordia, KS, where surface moisture convergence is greatest, surface winds are backed and crossover of 500mb/850mb winds is at 90 degrees, or 3) just to the west of KC metro area where LCL's drop below 800 meters, dewpoint may reach 66, and 0-3km ML CAPE values will be 1,500-2,000 j/kg. The gold strike would be target 1, which is showing a Siginificant Tornado Parameter of 3.3, but we have STP values of 1 or greater across the target area.
Again, convective initiation will be the big question mark. Currently, I would be inclined to set up around Concordia and move along the axis from there. Tempting, though, just to sit here in KC, watch and wait, as the last time we chased in this direction it ended up being one big U-turn.
Cloud cover tomorrow is somewhat of a concern, so will be watching satellite images tomorrow a.m. along with updated SPC guidance to make a decision by noon.
Again, convective initiation will be the big question mark. Currently, I would be inclined to set up around Concordia and move along the axis from there. Tempting, though, just to sit here in KC, watch and wait, as the last time we chased in this direction it ended up being one big U-turn.
Cloud cover tomorrow is somewhat of a concern, so will be watching satellite images tomorrow a.m. along with updated SPC guidance to make a decision by noon.